A comparison of two methods of estimating transpiration rates from a Sitka spruce plantation

Estimates of hourly transpiration from a 16–17 yr old Sitka spruce forest were calculated from the Penman-Monteith combination equation and compared with estimates from an eddy correlation/energy balance method.Canopy conductances were estimated from stomatal conductances measured using null balance diffusion porometers and took account of canopy variations of stomatal conductance and needle area index.Vertical heat fluxes were measured by the eddy correlation method; transpiration fluxes were then estimated from an energy balance of the forest.There was not a 1:1 relationship between the estimates of transpiration from the two methods. The major sources of error were concluded to be (i) difficulties of estimating the variation in stomatal conductance and leaf area through the canopy, (ii) errors in the value of total leaf area index, and (iii) errors in stomatal conductance measurements.The eddy correlation method was suggested as the more useful for future studies of the variation of forest transpiration in time or space, because the Penman-Monteith equation requires extensive biological measurements.     

Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: part I: boreal summer and fall seasons

This paper shows demonstrable improvement in the global seasonal climate predictability of boreal summer (at zero lead) and fall (at one season lead) seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature from a two-tiered seasonal hindcast forced with forecasted SST relative to two other contemporary operational coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. The results from an extensive set of seasonal hindcasts are analyzed to come to this conclusion. This improvement is attributed to: (1) The multi-model bias corrected SST used to force the atmospheric model. (2) The global atmospheric model which is run at a relatively high resolution of 50 km grid resolution compared to the two other coupled ocean–atmosphere models. (3) The physics of the atmospheric model, especially that related to the convective parameterization scheme. The results of the seasonal hindcast are analyzed for both deterministic and probabilistic skill. The probabilistic skill analysis shows that significant forecast skill can be harvested from these seasonal hindcasts relative to the deterministic skill analysis. The paper concludes that the coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal hindcasts have reached a reasonable fidelity to exploit their SST anomaly forecasts to force such relatively higher resolution two tier prediction experiments to glean further boreal summer and fall seasonal prediction skill.     

Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.     

Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits.     

Estimation of daytime downward longwave radiation at the surface from satellite and grid point data

Summary A hybrid method is developed for the estimation of the daytime downward longwave radiation flux (DLF) at the surface. The method makes use of the grid point thermodynamic fields at the surface and at the 1000 and 850 hPa levels. The cloud parameters are derived from the infrared and visible image data of the satellite METEOSAT-2. The calculation of the DLF is split into a clear-sky contribution, which is calculated from empirical formulae, and a cloud contribution which depends on cloud amount, cloud base height, and temperature.A sensitivity test to perturbations in the relevant parameters resembles closely the response of a multispectral radiation scheme, however the humidity dependence under clear sky has been identified as a weak point. A comparison of the method using observed input parameters with simultaneous measurements of the DLF yields an RMS error of 12.2 W/m².The method is applied for mapping the DLF over western Europe and the Mediterranean using satellite images for two days near midday and ancillary grid point data obtained during the ALPEX experiment. A comparison with ground measurements of 4 stations in West Germany shows a mean deviation of 3.9 W/m² and an RMS error of 11.6 W/m². The method is a first attempt to estimate the DLF at regional scales from satellite data on the cloud field and grid point analysis data on the thermodynamic field.

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Zusammenfassung Zur Schätzung des abwärts gerichteten langwelligen Strahlungsflusses (DLF) während des Tages an der Erdoberfläche wird eine Hybridmethode entwickelt. Die Methode verwendet Gitterpunkt-thermodynamische Felder am Boden und auf den 1000 und 850 h Pa-Flächen. Die Wolkenparameter stammen von den Bilddaten im infraroten und sichtbaren Bereich des Satelliten METEOSAT-2. Die Berechnung des DLF teilt sich in einen, aus empirischen Formeln berechneten Beitrag des wolkenlosen Himmels und einen Beitrag durch Wolken, welcher von der Wolkenmenge, von der Höhe der Wolkenbasis und der Temperatur abhängt.Ein Test der Empfindlichkeit auf Störungen in den relevanten Parametern ist der Reaktion eines multispektraligen Strahlungsschemas sehr ähnlich, obwohl die Feuchtigkeitsabhängigkeit unter wolkenlosem Himmel als Schwachpunkt herausgefunden wurde. Ein Vergleich der Methode unter Verwendung beobachteter Inputparameter bei gleichzeitigen Messungen des DLF ergibt einen RMS-Fehler von 12.2 W/m².Diese Methode wird für die Kartierung des DLF über Westeuropa und dem Mittelmeer angewendet. Dazu werden Satellitenbilder von zwei Tagen um Mittag und zusätzliche Gitterpunktdaten, die während des ALPEX-Experiments gewonnen wurden, verwendet. Ein Vergleich mit Bodenmessungen von 4 Stationen in West-deutschland zeigt eine mittlere Abweichung von 3.9 W/m² und einen RMS-Fehler von 11.6 W/m². Diese Methode ist ein erster Versuch, den DLF im regionalen Bereich aus Satellitendaten des Wolkenfeldes und Gitterpunkt-Analysedaten des thermodynamischen Feldes zu schätzen.

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With 10 Figures     

Objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic – a comparison between the ECMWF and NCEP Reanalyses

Simple and easily reproducible techniques have been used to construct two objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic-European sector. The goal of this study is to increase understanding of cyclones with the potential to cause damage, in particular, those reaching Beaufort category 7 and above. The two climatologies constructed here span the period 1979–2000 and have been developed from reanalysis mean sea level pressure data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) and NCEP (National Centres for Environmental Prediction). The ECMWF reanalysis data are only available for 15 years, and have been extended from 1994 using operational analyses. The major temporal and spatial characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones are examined and a comparison between the climatologies developed from the two data sets is carried out. The well-known cyclogenesis regions along the east coast of the United States and to the southeast of Greenland are replicated by both reanalyses, as is the characteristic southwest/northeast orientation of the dominant cyclone track across the Atlantic basin. However, only weak correlations are found between the time series of cyclone frequency produced from the two reanalyses, and this is particularly true for the lower intensity Beaufort Scale category 0–6 cyclones. This result, together with the large differences in the spatial distribution of cyclones over Greenland for Beaufort Scale 0–6 cyclones, indicates the NCEP reanalyses generates fewer systems than the ECMWF reanalyses. The overall conclusion is that the ECMWF mean sea level pressure data produce a more comprehensive climatology of North Atlantic cyclones at all scales.     

Numerical simulation of a South China Sea typhoon Leo (1999)

Summary ?A South China Sea typhoon, Leo (1999), was simulated using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 with the Betts-Miller convective parameterization scheme (BMEX). The simulation had two nested domains with resolutions at 54 and 18 km, and the forecast duration was 36 hours. The model was quite successful in predicting the track, the rapid deepening, the central pressure, and the maximum wind speed of typhoon Leo as verified with reports from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). The structure of the eye, the eye wall, and the spiral convective cloud band simulated in the model are found to be comparable to corresponding features identified in satellite images for the storm, and also with those reported by other authors. A trajectory analysis was performed. Three kinds of trajectory were found: (1) spirally rising trajectories near the eye wall; (2) spirally rising/descending trajectories in the convective/cloud free belt; (3) straight and fast rising trajectories in a heavy convection zone along one of the cloud bands on the periphery of the tropical cyclone. Both the HKO and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported the rapid deepening of Leo started around 00 UTC 29 April. In the model, the eye was first formed in the lower troposphere, and it extended to the upper troposphere within a few hours. We speculate that the spin-up of cyclonic rotation in the low-level eye enhanced the positive vorticity along the low-level eye wall. The positive vorticity was then transported to the upper troposphere by convection, leading to an extension and growth of the eye into the upper troposphere. To examine the impact of convective parameterization scheme (CPS) on the simulation, the Grell scheme (GLEX) was also tested. The GLEX predicted a weaker typhoon with a wilder eye that extended not as high up in the upper troposphere as BMEX. The different structures of the eye between the BMEX and GLEX suggest that the mesoscale features of the eye are dependent on the convection. In other words, the vertical and horizontal distribution of convective heating is essential to the development and structure of the eye. Received December 18, 2001; accepted May 7, 2002 Published online: March 20, 2003     

Predictability of Mediterranean climate variables from oceanic variability. Part I: Sea surface temperature regimes

The determination of specific sea surface temperature (SST) patterns from large-scale gridded SST-fields has widely been done. Often principal component analysis (PCA) is used to condense the SST-data to major patterns of variability. In the present study SST-fields for the period 1950?C2003 from the area 20°S to 60°N are analysed with respect to SST-regimes being defined as large-scale oceanic patterns with a regular and at least seasonal occurrence. This has been done in context of investigations on seasonal predictability of Mediterranean regional climate with large-scale SST-regimes as intended predictors in statistical model relationships. The SST-regimes are derived by means of a particular technique including multiple applications of s-mode PCA. Altogether 17 stationary regimes can be identified, eight for the Pacific Ocean, five for the Atlantic Ocean, two for the Indian Ocean, and two regimes which show a distinct co-variability within different ocean basins. Some regimes exist, with varying strength and spatial extent, throughout the whole year, whereas other regimes are only characteristic for a particular season. Several regimes show dominant variability modes, like the regimes associated with El Ni?o, with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or with the North Atlantic Tripole, whereas other regimes describe little-known patterns of large-scale SST variability. The determined SST-regimes are subsequently used as predictors for monthly precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. This subject is addressed in Part II of this paper.