Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Observations of the structure and evolution of solar flares with a soft X-ray telescope

132 soft X-ray flare events have been observed with The Aerospace Corporation/Marshall Space Flight Center S-056 X-ray telescope that was part of the ATM complement of instruments aboard Skylab. Analyses of these data are reported in this paper. The observations are summarized and a detailed discussion of the X-ray flare structures is presented. The data indicated that soft X-rays emitted by a flare come primarily from an intense well-defined core surrounded by a region of fainter, more diffuse emission. Loop structures are found to constitute a fundamental characteristic of flare cores and arcades of loops are found to play a more important role in the flare phenomena than previously thought. Size distributions of these core features are presented and a classification scheme describing the brightest flare X-ray features is proposed. The data show no correlations between the size of core features and: (1) the peak X-ray intensity, as indicated by detectors on the SOLRAD satellite; (2) the rise time of the X-ray flare event, or (3) the presence of a nonthermal X-ray component. An analysis of flare evolution indicates evidence for preliminary heating and energy release prior to the main phase of the flare. Core features are found to be remarkably stable and retain their shape throughout a flare. Most changes in the overall configuration seem to be the result of the appearance, disappearance or change in brightness of individual features, rather than the restructuring or re-orientation of these features. Brief comparisons with several theories are presented.     

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.     

The measurement and extraction of the <nu>6 atmospheric emission band of CFC-12 from interfering emission features

Ground-based thermal emission measurements of the zenith sky have been made at Peterborough, Ontario since January 1993. In this paper, the measurement of the ₆ band of atmospheric CFC-12, an important greenhouse gas, is presented for a cold, clear day in January 1994. A spectrum of the non-CFC-12 emission features has been simulated using the FASCD3P radiation code and measured radiosonde profiles of temperature, pressure and humidity. This has enabled a satisfactory subtraction of the interfering emission features from the CFC-12 emission spectrum. A comparison of the observed and simulated ₆-bands of CFC-12 shows good agreement at all frequencies of emission. From these spectra the total downward greenhouse radiative flux from the CFC-12 ₆ emission based for a very cold day has been estimated to be 0.27 W m⁻²±10%.     

Seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka and its applications to the M = 6.6 earthquake of 6 October 1987

The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

u

The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km³. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s².

Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO₃ and H₃BO₃ concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.

     

Rockfall Hazard Analysis From Discrete Fracture Network Modelling with Finite Persistence Discontinuities

Developing an accurate representation of the rock mass fabric is a key element in rock fall hazard analysis. The orientation, persistence and density of fractures control the volume and shape of unstable blocks or compartments. In this study, the discrete fracture modelling technique and digital photogrammetry were used to accurately depict the fabric. A volume distribution of unstable blocks was derived combining polyhedral modelling and kinematic analyses. For each block size, probabilities of failure and probabilities of propagation were calculated. A complete energy distribution was obtained by considering, for each block size, its occurrence in the rock mass, its probability of falling, its probability to reach a given location, and the resulting distribution of energies at each location. This distribution was then used with an energy–frequency diagram to assess the hazard.     

Resolving mechanisms of toxicity while pursuing ecotoxicological relevance?

In this age of modern biology, aquatic toxicological research has pursued mechanisms of action of toxicants. This has provided potential tools for ecotoxicologic investigations. However, problems of biocomplexity and issues at higher levels of biological organization remain a challenge. In the 1980s and 1990s and continuing to a lesser extent today, organisms residing in highly contaminated field sites or exposed in the laboratory to calibrated concentrations of individual compounds were carefully analyzed for their responses to priority pollutants. Correlation of biochemical and structural analyses in cultured cells and tissues, as well as the in vivo exposures led to the production and application of biomarkers of exposure and effect and to our awareness of genotoxicity and its chronic manifestations, such as neoplasms, in wild fishes. To gain acceptance of these findings in the greater environmental toxicology community, “validation of the model” versus other, better-established often rodent models, was necessary and became a major focus. Resultant biomarkers were applied to heavily contaminated and reference field sites as part of effects assessment and with investigations following large-scale disasters such as oil spills or industrial accidents.

Over the past 15 years, in the laboratory, small aquarium fish models such as medaka (Oryzias latipes), zebrafish (Danio rerio), platyfish (Xiphophorus species), fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), and sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) were increasingly used establishing mechanisms of toxicants. Today, the same organisms provide reliable information at higher levels of biological organization relevant to ecotoxicology. We review studies resolving mechanisms of toxicity and discuss ways to address biocomplexity, mixtures of contaminants, and the need to relate individual level responses to populations and communities.     

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

南极GPS数据质量分析

以多路径误差和电离层延迟为评价指标,利用TEQC软件和QCVIEW软件对南极埃默里冰架、内陆冰盖、纳拉峡海湾、拉斯曼丘陵的实测GPS数据以及部分IGS站点的数据进行了数据质量分析,得到结论： 1)在同一站点上,L2上的多路径误差总比L1上的多路径误差要大;2)在南极不同环境下的多路径误差不同;3)纬度和太阳活动剧烈程度是影响南极地区GPS数据电离层延迟大小的两个重要因素。     

Persistent organic pollutants and histological lesions in Mayan catfish Ariopsis assimilis from the Bay of Chetumal, Mexico

Livers of catfish (Ariopsis assimilis) from the Bay of Chetumal were analyzed for organochlorine compounds and hydrocarbons as part of a study to diagnose the environmental health of the Bay after a catfish mass mortality that occurred in 1996. The presence of histological lesions in several organs of the fish as result of chemical exposure was also evaluated. The concentrations of organic pollutants found in the Bay may be considered high if compared to the levels reported for sites affected by chemical pollution. High prevalences of cellular alteration histopathologies were found in liver, including hepatic tumors. The presence of some lesions may be related statistically to environmental pollution in the Bay, specially with chlorinated compounds.