Public policy and the changing landscape

The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed.     

Mercury partition in the interface between a contaminated lagoon and the ocean: The role of particulate load and composition

After having estimated the patterns of flow to the ocean and found some seasonal and tidal differences, mainly with regard to the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, mercury partitioning at the interface between a contaminated lagoon and the Atlantic Ocean was investigated during four tidal cycles in contrasting season and tidal regimes. Mercury was found to be located predominantely in the particulate fraction throughout the year, contributing to its retention within the system. Seasonal conditions, variations in marine and fluvial signals and processes affecting bed sediment resuspension influenced the character and concentration of suspended particulate matter in the water column. Variation in the nature, levels and partitioning of organic carbon in the particulate fraction affected levels of particulate mercury as well as mercury partitioning. These results highlight the dominant role of suspended particulate matter in the distribution of anthropogenic mercury and reinforce the importance of competitive behavior related to organic carbon in mercury scavenging.     

Apparent polar wander paths carboniferous through cenozoic and the assembly of Gondwana

Directions of magnetization observed from rock-units from a given continental block are conveniently summarized by a path of apparent polar wander (apw) relative to that block. This article documents apw paths for the major continental blocks spanning the interval from Late Carboniferous (approximately –300 Ma) to the present. It is shown that by passing moving windows of 30 or 40 Ma duration over the data an apw path can be obtained with little or no loss of features through smoothing. It also is shown that mean pole positions obtained using Fisher's statistics or by calculating modes do not differ significantly. In the analysis poor results are screened out by applying certain minimum reliability criteria. Unit weight is then given to each of the remaining results. No attempt has been made to weight the results differentially because of the risk of added subjectivity.The paths contain many interesting features. One is an interval of rapid apparent polar motion relative to all major land-masses that occurred sometime in the Late Permian and Triassic. The general form of these motions is roughly established, but their timing and detailed form is poorly known because of inadequacies in the paleomagnetic record. Although it is clear that the motions occurred sometime around the Paleozoic-Mesozoic boundary it is not known whether the motions are or are not contemporaneous from continent to continent.Apw paths are of great importance for many problems in geology and geophysics. As an example, the new paths are applied to the question of how should Gondwana be correctly assembled. The results show that the best available reconstruction is the 1937 assembly of Alex du Toit as quantified by Smith and Hallam, with a minor modification by Barton and Molnar for the fit of Australia and Antarctica. Assemblies, that place Antaretica to the south and wrap the Antarctic Peninsula around the southern Andes, are not supported by the paleomagnetic data. There are, however, several obscurities, which derive, it is argued, from the uncertainties in timing the Late Permian to Triassic transitions alluded to above.     

An analysis and comparison of observed Pleistocene South Carolina (USA) shoreline elevations with predicted elevations derived from Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages

Geological maps of South Carolina, covering > 6800 km², confirm the existence of eight preserved Pleistocene shorelines above current sea level: Marietta (+ 42.6 m), Wicomico (+ 27.4 m), Penholoway (+ 21.3 m), Ladson (+ 17.4 m), Ten Mile Hill (+ 10.7 m), Pamlico (+ 6.7 m), Princess Anne (+ 5.2 m), and Silver Bluff (+ 3 m). Current geochronologic data suggest that these eight shorelines correlate with Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) as follows: Marietta—older than MIS 77; Wicomico—MIS 55–45; Penholoway—MIS 19 or 17; Ladson—MIS 11; Ten Mile Hill—MIS 7; Pamlico—MIS 5; Princess Anne—MIS 5; and Silver Bluff—MIS 5 or 3. Except for the MIS 5e Pamlico, and possibly the MIS 11 Ladson, the South Carolina elevations are higher than predicted by isotope proxy-based reconstructions. The < 4 m of total relief from the Pamlico to the Silver Bluff shoreline in South Carolina, for which other reconstructions suggest an expected relief of ~ 80 m, illustrates the lack of match. Our results suggest that processes affecting either post-depositional changes in shoreline elevations or the creation of proxy sea-level estimates must be considered before using paleo sea-level position on continental margins.     

Narrowband vegetation indexes and detection of disease damage in soybeans

A portable narrowband spectroradiometer was used to detect sclerotinia stem rot infection, caused by the fungus Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in soybeans. Increasing levels of fungal inoculum were used to cause a gradient of disease infection in the field. Canopy reflectance measured in narrowband R/sub 675/-R/sub 685/ and broadband R/sub 635/-R/sub 685/ could estimate 86% of the variation in soybean plants damage measured by a count of early dead plants. Plant damage was also associated with the chlorophyll absorption in reflectance and the normalized pigment chlorophyll vegetation indexes, showing a loss of chlorophyll pigment compared to healthy plants. A new field approach is suggested for the investigation of plant damage with narrowband spectroradiometry.     

A revised estimate of the life span for Lake Nasser

A number of estimates of the potential life span of Lake Nasser located in Egypt and Sudan have been made in the past several years. Published estimates range from as little as 20 years (Sterling 1970) to over 1500 years (Makary 1982). The wide range of differing values is a function of many variables, including computation method, input data, and theoretical assumptions underlying the mathematical approach taken. Such a broad range of values is typical of sedimentation studies performed for areas that lack an adequate historic data base.One of the chief constraints to development of a reliable estimate the Lake Nasser's case has been lack of sufficient historical data on which to construct a useful data base. Enough information of this type has been collected since the reservoir's formation in 1964 to permit a realistic assessment of its life span. Granted the obvious need to determine the useful lifetime of this or any other reservoir, it is now possible to assess the reliability of the current official estimate for Lake Nasser. By applying appropriate modifications and additional data to the official estimate, an improved estimate was made.The time forecasted for filling of the reservoir by the official estimate is 362 years, somewhat less than the original design life of 500 years. By taking into account changes in the hydrological regime of the Nile after 1964 and another compaction factor, an estimate of 535 years was made. The additional time before filling estimated in the revision is significant for decision rules governing operation of the Aswan High Dam.     

UNIQUE ASPECTS OF MODELING IRRIGATI0N-INDUCED SOIL EROSION

llNTRODUCTIONIrrigationisimp0rtanttof00dpr0ducti0nthr0ughoutthew0rld.Irrigati0nisused0naboutl5theworld'scropland(KendalIandPimentel,l994)and5%ofthew0rld'sfoodproductionland,whichincludesrangelandandpermanentcr0pland(FAO,l998).However,irrigatedlandproducesmorethan30%ofthew0rld'sf0od(Tribe,1994),whichis2l/2timesasmuchperunitareacomparedt0n0n-irrigatedproducti0n(KendallandPimentel,1994).IntheUnitedStates,approximatelyl5theharvestedcr0plandisirrigated,butalmost40thet0talcr0pvalue…     

Growth of filamentous fungi in a surface-sealed woody substratum buried in salt-marsh sediments

Balsa wood panels were sealed to prevent oxygen diffusion from aerobic zones and buried in a North Carolina salt marsh to determine whether filamentous fungi could invade them despite the resulting anoxia. Results were similar to those of a previous study which had employed unsealed panels and suggest that fungi involved either are facultative microaerophiles or capable of translocating sufficient oxygen through their hyphae to permit growth into oxygen-deficient soil strata.