The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.     

Beitrag zur quantitativen Analyse von Mineralphasen mittels Röntgendiffraktion

Zusammenfassung Bei der Durchführung quantitativer Gemenge-Analysen mit Hilfe der Röntgendiffraktionsmethode kann man den Massenschwächungskoeffizienten (^*) verwenden, den man bei der Röntgenfluoreszenzanalyse Röhrenhauptlinienverfahren vonSchroll-Stepon erhalten hat. Er wird von der Wellenlänge der Röntgenfluoreszenzstreustrahlung auf die Wellenlänge der Diffraktionsröhre transformiert. Ein Intensitäts-Konzentrationsdiagramm, in dem die Intensität der gewählten Diffraktionslinie durch das Produkt von Intensität und dem jeweiligen Wert von ^* ersetzt wird, ergibt eine allgemeingültige Eichgerade. Als Beispiel werden Messungen an Zweistoffsystemen wie Magnesit-Quarz, Albit-Quarz, Calcit-Quarz, Stilpnomelan-Quarz und Siderit-Quarz angeführt.Die vorgeschlagene Methode ist für kombinierte Diffraktions- und Röntgenfluoreszenzanalysen sehr zweckmäßig.

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Summary Applicating the quantitative X-ray-diffraction-analysis für mixtures of minerals the use of the mass absorption coefficient (^*) is possible, which is received by the X-ray-fluorescence-analysis of the same sample following the method proposed by the authors. The mass absorption coefficients must be transformed to the new wave length of the X-ray-diffraction tube. In the intensity-concentration-diagram the intensity is substituted by the product of intensity and mass absorption coefficient. An uniform standard line is received, as the measurement of quartz shows in the systems of two-substances, such as magnesite-quartz, albite-quartz, calcite-quartz, stilpnomelan-quartz and siderite-quartz.The proposed method is very useful for the combined X-ray-diffraction and X-ray fluorescence analysis.

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Structural characteristics of zooplankton of the Shardarinskoe Reservoir and their use in water quality assessment

Data on the Shardarinskoe Reservoir are used to assess the indicator role of zooplankton community under unstable hydrological regime. The structural characteristics of zooplankton featured significant seasonal variations. The averaged indices characterized reservoir water quality at the level of mesotrophic and eutrophic water bodies. The possible use of cyclopidas to characterize toxic pollution of water is discussed.     

PEDOGENESIS IN LATE PREHISTORIC INDIAN MOUNDS,UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

Inceptisols are developed on silt loam, loam, and sandy loam Indian mounds at the Keller Mound Group and Bluff Top Mound in northeastern Iowa. The mounds date to the Allamakee Phase of the Late Woodland Period (ca. 1650–1250 B.P.) and are built with fill obtained from the A, E, and upper B horizons of pre-existing soils (Alfisols). Differences in the morphologic and chemical characteristics of soils on different mounds are attributed to textural differences of the mounds' fill. Coarse-textured mound fill is pedogenically altered at a faster rate than fine-textured fill, but total carbon percentage of the A horizon attains a steady state faster in fine-textured mound fill. Total phosphorus content is used to determine from which horizons of pre-existing soils the specific layers of mound fill originated. Rates and pathways of pedogenesis in mound fill may not provide good analogues for the early stages of soil development in materials that have not undergone previous weathering and subsequent modification by humans. Nevertheless, mound soils are useful benchmarks for some pedologic studies since they provide time lines for evaluating minimum rates for development of argillic and albic horizons, as well as attainment of the Alfisol order.