Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

An investigation of the significance of local site effects in Plovdiv, Bulgaria

Plovdiv is the second largest city in the Republic of Bulgaria. A large part of the city is located on Holocene alluvial sediments and the oldest neighborhoods are situated on syenitic rock outcrops. We believe that local site effects may be an important contributor to the destruction caused by earthquakes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate quantitatively the local site effects in the central area of Plovdiv in terms of fundamental site frequency and amplification factor. Another important objective was to see how these correlate with the geological structures underlying the city. Measurements of the seismic noise at more than two hundred regularly placed points were made in the central area of the city. The H/V spectra were then calculated and analyzed to determine the spatial distribution of the fundamental site frequency and the amplification factor. The results exhibit very good correlation with the local geology. They were also compared with an intensity map from the strong 1928 Plovdiv earthquake. The comparison clearly demonstrates that the local site effects were the main factor in the destruction of buildings—the zones where the most damage was observed are also the zones where we have low fundamental site frequencies and high amplifications. Similarly the areas with high fundamental site frequencies and low amplification factors cover the neighborhoods where less damage has been observed. This study may form a basis for a more comprehensive and systematic microzonation study in Plovdiv.     

Transitional continental–oceanic structure beneath the Norwegian Sea from inversion of surface wave group velocity data

We have analysed the fundamental mode of Love and Rayleigh waves generated by 12 earthquakes located in the mid-Atlantic ridge and Jan Mayen fracture zone. Using the multiple filter analysis technique, we isolated the Rayleigh and Love wave group velocities for periods between 10 and 50  s. The surface wave propagation paths were divided into five groups, and average group velocities calculated for each group. The average group velocities were inverted and produced shear wave velocity models that correspond to a quasi-continental oceanic structure in the Greenland–Norwegian Sea region. Although resolution is poor at shallow depth, we obtained crustal thickness values of about 18  km in the Norwegian Sea area and 9  km in the region between Svalbard and Iceland. The abnormally thick crust in the Norwegian Sea area is ascribed to magmatic underplating and the thermal blanketing effect of sedimentary layers. Maximum crustal shear velocities vary between 3.5 and 3.9  km  s⁻¹ for most paths. An average lithospheric thickness of 60  km was observed, which is lower than expected for oceanic-type structure of similar age. We also observed low shear wave velocities in the lower crust and upper mantle. We suggest that high heat flow extending to depths of about 30  km beneath the surface can account for the thin lithosphere and observed low velocities. Anisotropy coefficients of 1–5 per cent in the shallow layers and >7 per cent in the upper mantle point to the existence of polarization anisotropy in the region.     

Empirical evaluation of site effects in the metropolitan area of San José, Costa Rica

Site effects for 11 selected locations were determined in the capital city of Costa Rica. We used a strong motion network made of eight K2 and three SSA accelerographs. The network recorded more than 60 earthquakes in the magnitude range from 2 to 5 during a period of nine months. The site effects were determined using the sediment-to-bedrock spectral ratio (SBSR) and the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) techniques and a time window 4 s beginning from the S-wave arrival. The result suggests that the amplification in the capital city is to be in the range from 2.0 to 3.0. The fundamental frequencies were found to be high in the southern and eastern part of the study area and low in the northern and western part. A possible topographic effect was also observed for one of the stations located nearby a river canyon. The results from earthquake data were compared with the ones obtained from noise data. The horizontal-to-vertical noise ratio (HVNR) technique was used to estimate the site effects using ambient noise. The fundamental frequencies were found to correlate very well between both sets of data; on the other hand, the amplitude given by the noise was observed to be always lower than the one derived from the earthquake data.     

The new accelerograph network for Santa Fe De Bogota, Colombia and implications for microzonation

The new accelerographic network of Santa Fe de Bogotá is composed of 29 three-component stations with sensors at the surface and three additional six-component borehole stations with three sensors at the surface and three at depth (115, 126 and 184 m). In total, 32 stations have been operative in the metropolitan area of Bogotá since 1999. During this period of time, a significant number of weak motion are recorded and used for a preliminary analysis of local site effects. Using the SH-wave response spectra we verify the behavior of the different seismic zones proposed by the previous microzonation study of the city. A comparison between normalized SH-wave response spectra and the normalized design spectra for each zone clearly depicts that parts of the design spectra should be revised, as well as the boundaries between different zones may require some changes. The spectral amplification levels reach up to a factor of 5. The predominant periods obtained by the amplification spectra in different stations in the city, show variability from 0.3 to 3.0 s. A comparison is also made between the predominant periods obtained using H/V spectral ratios of microtremors and those using weak motion. In general, microtremors tend to predict slightly lower values of dominant periods than those calculated by the weak motion spectra. However, there is a general correlation between the two data sets. Using the data recorded by one of the borehole station, an equivalent linear seismic response analysis was conducted. The modeled and recorded response spectra show similarities in period peaks, however, the modeled soil amplification is underestimated for periods less than 0.8 s. Since the available record is weak motion which represents mostly the linear response of the soils, further analysis is required.     

Seismicity and volcanism of Jan Mayen Island

The small, arctic Jan Mayen Island, site of the World's northernmost active volcano, Beerenberg, is part of the mid-Atlantic ridge system and located along the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone (JMFZ). Recent data from the local seismic network, and fault plane solutions from the global network, indicate that the island is located at a ridge-crest intersection, which might explain the origin of the island and the associated volcanism. Moreover, the new data suggest a series of offset segments of the Mohn's Ridge, overlapping in an en echelon pattern. In January 1985, a flank eruption was for the first time observed with the local seismic network. Volcanic tremors and low-frequency events were observed on 5 January at 2230 h and 10 hours later the first large earthquake occurred. No visual confirmation of the eruption was made until 6 January at 1630 h. The seismic observations rule out the possibility that the large earthquake caused the eruption; it seems more likely that the changes in local stress conditions triggered the earthquake and that the eruption started before the first large earthquake. Recent observations show that the local network provides an efficient tool for monitoring and warning of volcanic activity. However, since there was no change in the local seismicity in the days or months before the 1985 eruption, it seems to be difficult to make long-term predictions of Beerenberg flank eruptions without using other techniques such as observations of tilt.