Ageing research in Australia: reflecting on Graeme Hugo’s four decades of contribution

ABSTRACT

Globally, population ageing is one of the most pressing social and policy issues faced today. Over the next two decades, Australian society will face dramatic increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, as the baby boomers move into older age and fertility levels remain low. Yet population ageing is not a surprising or new trend—demographic changes in the age profile of a population tend to occur incrementally rather than suddenly. As a demographer and geographer, Graeme Hugo drew attention to this trend in Australia’s population more than three decades ago. Throughout Graeme Hugo’s vast breadth of work over the past 40 years, there has been a consistent thread of demographic analysis and academic thought associated with the ageing of Australia’s population. This paper focuses on Hugo’s contributions to academic thought and policy on Australia’s ageing population and the challenges associated with this for both service delivery and health policy as Australian society moves into an unprecedented era of population ageing.     

Complex coastal change in response to autogenic basin infilling: An example from a sub‐tropical Holocene strandplain

Thick bay‐fill sequences that often culminate in strandplain development serve as important sedimentary archives of land–ocean interaction, although distinguishing between internal and external forcings is an ongoing challenge. This study employs sediment cores, ground‐penetrating radar surveys, radiocarbon dates, palaeogeographic reconstructions and hydrodynamic modelling to explore the role of autogenic processes – notably a reduction in wave energy in response to coastal embayment infilling – in coastal evolution and shoreline morphodynamics. Following a regional 2 to 4 m highstand at ca 5·8 ka, the 75 km² Tijucas Strandplain in southern Brazil built from fluvial sediments deposited into a semi‐enclosed bay. Holocene regressive deposits are underlain by fluvial sands and a Pleistocene transgressive–regressive sequence, and backed by a highstand barrier‐island. The strandplain is immediately underlain by 5 to 16 m of seaward‐thickening, fluvially derived, Holocene‐age, basin‐fill mud. Several trends are observed from the landward (oldest) to the seaward (youngest) sections of the strandplain: (i) the upper shoreface and foreshore become finer and thinner and shift from sand‐dominated to mud‐dominated; (ii) beachface slopes decrease from >11° to ca 7°; and (iii) progradation rates increase from 0·4 to 1·8 m yr^?1. Hydrodynamic modelling demonstrates a correlation between progressive shoaling of Tijucas Bay driven by sea‐level fall and sediment infilling and a decrease in onshore wave‐energy transport from 18 to 4 kW m^?1. The combination of allogenic (sediment supply, falling relative sea‐level and geology) and autogenic (decrease in wave energy due to bay shoaling) processes drove the development of a regressive system with characteristics that are rare, if not unique, in the Holocene and rock records. These findings demonstrate the complexities in architecture styles of highstand and regressive systems tracts. Furthermore, this article highlights the diverse internal and external processes and feedbacks responsible for the development of these intricate marginal marine sedimentary systems.     

A hydro-structural analysis program for TLPS

The TLP configuration in this paper comes from the case study of the ISSC Derived Loads Committee I.2 in 1985. Two models, Model 1 and Model 2, are created aiming at developing a computational tool to handle hydro-dynamic and structural aspects together to help the TLP designer. Another objective is to generate relevant information for a non-linear static local stress analysis of TLP components from a dynamic hydro-structural global analysis. Model 2 is developed for LUSAS, a general purpose, well established, FE software, to validate the in-house program DCATLP. Model 1 and Model 2 are purposely made slightly different in the tether modelling so that the non-linear formulations in DCATLP to treat a TLP as a coupled system with the hull and tethers can be verified with a straightforward linear step-by-step dynamic analysis in LUSAS. The code in DCATLP has advanced features to account for some complex aspects of TLPs, such as compliant characteristics. The results from DCATLP can be directly used in the reliability based structural design of TLP components and subsequent optimisation studies.     

Benthic foraminifera of the Holocene transgressive west-central Florida inner shelf: paleoenvironmental implications

The sedimentology, stratigraphic position, and benthic foraminiferal biostratigraphy of early- to mid-Holocene deposits from the west-central Florida shelf suggest that barrier islands developed along this coast as early as 8.3 ka, in an environment that was more arid than today. Predominant foraminifera of three paralic sedimentary facies deposited between 5.3 and 8.3 ka include miliolids, Elphidium spp., and Ammonia spp., all of which are common in back-barrier environments. Foraminiferal assemblages also suggest that early back-barrier sediments were deposited in a hypersaline environment, similar to that of the arid Laguna Madre of the western Gulf of Mexico. Modern back-barrier foraminifera in the Tampa Bay region are indicative of the humid subtropical climate of today. Thus, the climate of west-central Florida at approximately 8 ka was more arid than today, which is consistent with recent studies showing that climate in the Gulf of Mexico was dryer and cooler during this time period.     

Burrow Structure and Burrowing Activity of the Funnel-feeding Enteropneust Balanoglossus aurantiacus in Bogue Sound, North Carolina, USA

Abstract. This study of the enteropneust, Balanoglossus aurantiacus , in Bogue Sound, NC, provides information on the general structure and variability in geometry of its burrow, B. aurantiacus employs a funnel at the anterior end of its burrow to cave in surface sediments. It ingests, processes, then deposits these sediments back on the surface as fecal castings. Measurements made on resin casts of burrows and on photographs of surface features (burrow openings and funnels) revealed a new and consistent pattern of burrow construction. This pattern distinguishes B. aurantiacus burrows from those reported for other funnel feeders and enteropneusts (except, perhaps, for B. clavigerus). Laboratory and field observations revealed that, within its burrow, B. aurantiacus is elongated, can double-back on itself, and can use anterior burrow openings for subsequent fecal castings. Tests for significant changes in location of surface features gave estimates of how frequently individuals in aquaria and field populations abandon old burrow locations and construct new burrows. Field observations showed that B. aurantiacus will reopen a blocked burrow opening.     

Winter processes on northern salt marshes: Evaluating the impact of in-situ peat compaction due to ice loading, Wells, ME

New England salt marshes are dominated by the supratidal high marsh grass, Spartina patens. This grass forms a nearly planar surface, which makes it highly vulnerable to the predicted regime of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR). If the high marsh cannot keep pace with rising sea level it will be transformed to intertidal environments, leading to unusually rapid coastal evolution. Winter processes such as ice-loading of surface peat may degrade the marsh surface. Large volumes of snow and ice compress peat, resulting in shallow compaction and a net loss of elevation in some areas.On the Webhannet marsh in Maine, a simulated ice compaction experiment indicates that thick ice can compress marsh peat (46 cm simulated ‘ice’ produced 6.9 ± 0.3 mm of compaction; 24 cm ‘ice’ produced 3.0 ± 0.8 mm). Experimental data suggest that ice thicknesses greater than 10 cm depress the marsh surface by 2 mm for each cm of total ice thickness. However, surface elevations rebounded to near-control levels within 2 weeks of the removal of simulated ‘ice’ from the surface of the marsh. Normal winter ice accumulations on New England marshes, therefore, do not appear to be sufficient to permanently compact marsh surface peat and lead to loss in marsh surface elevation.     

Have applications of continuous rainfall–runoff simulation realized the vision for process‐based flood frequency analysis?

Keith Beven was amongst the first to propose and demonstrate a combination of conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling and stochastically generated rainfall data in what is known as the ‘continuous simulation’ approach for flood frequency analysis. The motivations included the potential to establish better links with physical processes and to avoid restrictive assumptions inherent in existing methods applied in design flood studies. Subsequently, attempts have been made to establish continuous simulation as a routine method for flood frequency analysis, particularly in the UK. The approach has not been adopted universally, but numerous studies have benefitted from applications of continuous simulation methods. This paper asks whether industry has yet realized the vision of the pioneering research by Beven and others. It reviews the generic methodology and illustrates applications of the original vision for a more physically realistic approach to flood frequency analysis through a set of practical case studies, highlighting why continuous simulation was useful and appropriate in each case. The case studies illustrate how continuous simulation has helped to offer users of flood frequency analysis more confidence about model results by avoiding (or exposing) bad assumptions relating to catchment heterogeneity, inappropriateness of assumptions made in (UK) industry‐standard design event flood estimation methods, and the representation of engineered or natural dynamic controls on flood flows. By implementing the vision for physically realistic analysis of flood frequency through continuous simulation, each of these examples illustrates how more relevant and improved information was provided for flood risk decision‐making than would have been possible using standard methods. They further demonstrate that integrating engineered infrastructure into flood frequency analysis and assessment of environmental change are also significant motivations for adopting the continuous simulation approach in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developments in budget remote sensing for the geosciences

Acquiring outcrop, landform or other surface topography data in the field for the geosciences has always been challenging. Accessibility is often a problem, time is usually limited and an ideal spatial and temporal coverage often has to be compromised to be more manageable. However, emerging technologies, and some re-inventions of rather older ones, can overcome many of these constraints in a very exciting and budget-friendly manner. This article briefly introduces and reviews four major recent developments in budget remote sensing, specifically the use of blimps, kites, drones or UAVs (including quadcopters), and structure from motion (SFM) software. Both scientific and applied case studies are given and some possibilities for future studies are highlighted. Overall, the potential for these technologies to revolutionise the geosciences is clear and should be opportunistically embraced by scientists, resource and hazard managers and educators alike.     

Simulations of planet migration driven by planetesimal scattering

Evidence has mounted for some time that planet migration is an important part of the formation of planetary systems, both in the Solar System [Malhotra, R., 1993. Nature 365, 819-821] and in extrasolar systems [Mayor, M., Queloz, D., 1995. Nature 378, 355-359; Lin, D.N.C., Bodenheimer, P., Richardson, D.C., 1996. Nature 380, 606-607]. One mechanism that produces migration (the change in a planet's semi-major axis a over time) is the scattering of comet- and asteroid-size bodies called planetesimals [Fernandez, J.A., Ip, W.-H., 1984. Icarus 58, 109-120]. Significant angular momentum exchange can occur between the planets and the planetesimals during local scattering, enough to cause a rapid, self-sustained migration of the planet [Ida, S., Bryden, G., Lin, D.N.C., Tanaka, H., 2000. Astrophys. J. 534, 428-445]. This migration has been studied for the particular case of the four outer planets of the Solar System (as in Gomes et al. [Gomes, R.S., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2004. Icarus 170, 492-507]), but is not well understood in general. We have used the Miranda [McNeil, D., Duncan, M., Levison, H.F., 2005. Astron. J. 130, 2884-2899] computer simulation code to perform a broad parameter-space survey of the physical variables that determine the migration of a single planet in a planetesimal disk. Migration is found to be predominantly inwards, and the migration rate is found to be independent of planet mass for low-mass planets in relatively high-mass disks. Indeed, a simple scaling relation from Ida et al. [Ida, S., Bryden, G., Lin, D.N.C., Tanaka, H., 2000. Astrophys. J. 534, 428-445] matches well with the dependencies of the migration rate:

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