西藏近40年气温变化的气候特征分析

应用西藏1952~1995年温度序列资料, 对其基本气候特征、年代变化、气候突变、振荡周期、异常冷暖、变化趋势等进行了分析.结果表明:年与各季气温大都具有3个暖期和2个冷期, 60年代是最冷的10年, 以秋季降温最明显, 80年代中后期至90年代气温偏高. 22年、11年、3~4年是年与各季气温较为显著的周期.气候突变出现在60年代初和80年代初. 60年代、70年代多异常偏冷年, 80年代多异常偏暖年, 多发生在夏季和冬季, 90年代, 大多数年份发生气温异常. 40年来, 西藏年平均气温以0.065 ℃/10a的倾向率上升, 近10年春秋季增温率最大.     

Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios

Following an earlier climatological study of North Pacific Polar Lows by employing dynamical downscaling of NCEP1 reanalysis in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the characteristics of Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios are investigated. Simulations based on three scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios were conducted using a global climate model (ECHAM5) and used to examine systematic changes in the occurrence of Polar Lows over the twenty first century. The results show that with more greenhouse gas emissions, global air temperature would rise, and the frequency of Polar Lows would decrease. With sea ice melting, the distribution of Polar Low genesis shows a northward shift. In the scenarios with stronger warming there is a larger reduction in the number of Polar Lows.     

气候变化影响下极端水文事件的多变量统计模型研究

以黄河流域太原气象站和淮河流域鲁台子水文站为研究对象,利用Copula函数构建气候要素（降水）同极端水文事件（干旱和洪水）之间的多元统计模型,分析不同降水条件下不同等级干旱和洪水的发生概率变化。结果表明,Gumbel Copula能够较好地描述太原站7月份的前期累加降水量和帕默尔干旱指数（PDSI）的相关结构。随着降水量的增加,极端干旱的发生概率逐渐减小,重旱、中旱和轻旱的发生概率则先增加后减小。Clayton Copula能够较好地描述鲁台子水文站前期累加降水量和洪峰流量之间的相关结构。当前期累加降水量大于等于某一定值时,随着年最大洪峰x的增大,发生洪峰≥x的极端洪水事件的概率逐渐减小。在同一个极端洪水发生概率下,前期累加降水量越大,洪峰流量出现大值的可能性越大。     

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Global sea level change and thermal contribution

The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.     

山西下川遗址流水腰地点的细石叶工业

下川遗址流水腰地点（35°23'13"N,111°58'46"E）位于山西省垣曲县历山镇文堂村东北约1500 m处,海拔1554.9 m,发掘面积为12 m²,其中上文化层的年代约为17 cal.ka B.P.,石制品共计1182件。石制品原料以燧石为主,脉石英次之,还有一些硅质泥岩、玛瑙等。细石核以船形石核为主,兼有少量的半锥形石核。工具以刮削器、圆头刮削器、楔形析器为主,雕刻器、两端尖状器、两面尖状器很有特色。根据这些出土遗物的特征,该地点上文化层的文化性质为典型的以船形石核为主的细石叶文化,主要来源于下川遗址细石叶文化早期传统,同时受到来自吕梁山区和泥河湾盆地同期文化的影响。流水腰地点的发掘为研究山区旧-新石器时代过渡阶段的文化演变提供了新材料。

     

湿陷性黄土场地强夯处理一些值得研究的问题

通过对某湿陷性黄土场地强夯处理后各种检测方法和结果的综合分析,提出了一些值得研究的问题     

Refined modeling and movement characteristics analyses of irregularly shaped particles

Irregularly shaped (IRS) particles widely exist in many engineering and industrial fields. The macro physical and mechanical properties of the particle system are governed by the interaction between the particles in the system. The interaction between IRS particles is more complicated because of their complex geometric shape with extremely irregular and co‐existed concave and convex surfaces. These particles may interlock each other, making the sliding and friction of IRS particles more complex than that of particles with regular shape. In order to study the interaction of IRS particles more efficiently, a refined method of constructing discrete element model based on computed tomography scanning of IRS particles is proposed. Three parameters were introduced to control the accuracy and the number of packing spheres. Subsequently, the inertia tensor of the IRS particle model was optimized. Finally, laboratory and numerical open bottom cylinder tests were carried out to verify the refined modeling method. The influence of particle shape, particle position, and mesoscopic friction coefficient on the interaction of particles was also simulated. It is noteworthy that with the increase of mesoscopic friction coefficient, the fluidity of IRS particle assembly decreases, and intermittent limit equilibrium state may appear. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

Soil property variation mapping through data mining of soil category maps

Spatial information on soil properties is an important input to hydrological models. In current hydrological modelling practices, soil property information is often derived from soil category maps by the linking method in which a representative soil property value is linked to each soil polygon. Limited by the area‐class nature of soil category maps, the derived soil property variation is discontinuous and less detailed than high resolution digital terrain or remote sensing data. This research proposed dmSoil, a data‐mining‐based approach to derive continuous and spatially detailed soil property information from soil category maps. First, the soil–environment relationships are extracted through data mining of a soil map. The similarity of the soil at each location to different soil types in the soil map is then estimated using the mined relationships. Prediction of soil property values at each location is made by combining the similarities of the soil at that location to different soil types and the representative soil property values of these soil types. The new approach was applied in the Raffelson Watershed and Pleasant Valley in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, United States to map soil A horizon texture (in both areas) and depth to soil C horizon (in Pleasant Valley). The property maps from the dmSoil approach capture the spatial gradation and details of soil properties better than those from the linking method. The new approach also shows consistent accuracy improvement at validation points. In addition to the improved performances, the inputs for the dmSoil approach are easy to prepare, and the approach itself is simple to deploy. It provides an effective way to derive better soil property information from soil category maps for hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.