基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.     

Shallow lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary beneath Cambay Rift Zone of India: Inferred presence of carbonated partial melt

A vast area between Phalodi in Jodhpur and Pokaran in Jaisalmer district of western Rajasthan, is occupied distinctly by rocky, shallow gravelly surfaces and occasional hills. These surfaces exhibit quartz and quartzite pebbles, angular, sub-angular and few rounded sandstone gravels, have slightly convex outline and can be best described as desert pavements. Such land features assume significance because of their extent and variability under a dominantly dry aeolian environment. Morphology and distributional pattern of such formations indicate that sediments are either of in situ origin or may have been transported to a short distance. The present study is based on field level assessment of such surfaces in the above two desert districts. Over much of the area, the profile shows a surficial concentration of gravels followed by thick sand and silt mixed with gravels and then the parent material. There are also occasional rock outcrops of very low relief exhibiting vertical, horizontal and conchoidal pattern of fractures over these surfaces near Pokaran and north of Jaisalmer which indicate disintegration of rocks under extreme diurnal fluctuation of temperature. Such manifestations in the morphology indicate impact of both thermal as well as aeolian processes. In the east of Jaisalmer town near Basanpir and Bhojka, the pavement surfaces are found covered with abundant sub-rounded to rounded pebbles and cobbles. This type of condition would indicate a profound action by fluvial activities followed by wind sorting. Our study found significant spatial variability in the distribution of pavement surfaces, which carried imprints of climatic fluctuations and environment of deposition during Holocene.     

福建邵武地区大坪—张厝一带萤石矿地质特征及下一步工作方向

正研究区位于福建省邵武市大坪—张厝一带,区内断裂构造发育,萤石矿化强烈,物化探异常明显,萤石矿床(点)众多。综合区内成矿地质特征及成矿规律,区内萤石矿找矿潜力大,新发现的张厝、新坪萤石矿通过进一步工作,有望达到中大型萤石矿床规模。1 区域地质     

Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.     

Effects of Salinity Fluctuation Frequency on the Growth, Molting Rate and Hemolymph 20-Hydroxyecdysone Concentration in Juvenile Chinese shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis

This experiment was conducted to examine the effects of salinity fluctuation frequency on the growth, molting rate and hemolymph 20-hydroxyecdysone (20-HE) concentration for juvenile Fenneropenaeus chinensis with an initial wet body weight of 1.115 g±0.012 g. The salinity of the control treatment (represented by D0) was 28 throughout the experiment, whereas treatments D2,D4, D6 and D8 were subjected to different salinity fluctuation frequencies of 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively. The range of salinity fluctuation was 4. The salinity in treatments D2, D4, D6 and D8 was kept at 28 for 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively; each original salinity was decreased abruptly to salinity 24, which first lasted for another 2d and was then raised to its initial value 28. This constituted a salinity fluctuation cycle and afterwards the cycle repeated. It was found that: 1) The weight gain of shrimp in treatment D4 was 202.9% and significantly higher than that in treatment D0 (P<0.05). The molting rate in treatment D2 was the lowest, while that in treatment D6 was the highest and significantly higher than those in treatments D0 and D2 (P<0.05). 2) The hemolymph 20-HE concentration of shrimps in all treatments was at low levels and increased first gradually during the inter-molt period and then increased sharply. It reached a peak value during the pre-molt stage, and then decreased abruptly during the post-molt stage when the lowest level occurred. 3) During the post-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was 7.47pgμL-1 and significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05). There were, however, no significant differences in hemolymph 20-HE concentration among all five treatments during the inter-molt stage (P>0.05). During the pre-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D6 was significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05), whereas the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was significantly lower than that in other treatments (P<0.05). Adequate salinity fluctuation promoted the molting rate through increasing hemolymph 20-HE concentration at the pre-molt stage.     

100块南极格罗夫山陨石的化学-岩石类型

本文报道100块南极格罗夫山陨石的岩矿特征,以及它们的化学群和岩石类型。分类结果共发现4块特殊类型陨石,包括1块CM2型碳质球粒陨石(GRV050179),1块钙长辉长无球粒陨石(GRV051523),1块橄辉无球粒陨石(GRV 052382)和1块中铁陨石(GRV 050212)。GRV050179大部分球粒直径小于300μm,基质/球粒体积百分比为6∶1,且具有强烈的水蚀变特征,形成大量层状硅酸盐和PCP(Poor Characterized Phases)集合体。GRV 052382的橄榄石具有还原边,内部重结晶。橄榄石和辉石之间的富碳填隙物含有金刚石。GRV 050212的金属含量为12.3 vol%,其中的低钙辉石FeO/MnO质量百分比为30.0,而GRV 051523中辉石的FeO/MnO质量百分比为28.7-30.9,两者均与HED(Howardites-Eucrites-Diogenites)族陨石一致。普通球粒陨石有93块,其中5块属于非平衡型普通球粒陨石。依据橄榄石Fa的相对标准偏差(PMD)可以进一步划分这些非平衡型普通球粒陨石的亚型[1],其结果为:GRV 050165和GRV053167为3.5型,GRV050189、GRV050200和GRV050404为3.4型。88块平衡型普通球粒陨石包括低铁群(L)54块,高铁群(H)34块,与南极横贯山脉的陨石相比,L群所占比例明显偏高,且缺失LL群。另有3块小样品主要由金属和少量硅酸盐组成,其铁纹石的钴含量和橄榄石的Fa值分别落在H和L群范围。虽然这3块样品的金属含量类似铁陨石,但实际上很可能是普通球粒陨石中脱落的较大的金属团块。93块普通球粒陨石中有22块样品很新鲜(W1),金属和硫化物几乎很少遭受氧化,61块样品的金属和硫化物遭受明显氧化(W2),仅10块样品的金属和硫化物被强烈氧化(W3)。     

黑河下游额济纳绿洲现代荒漠化过程及其驱动机制

额济纳绿洲是发育在黑河下游内陆河三角洲上著名的天然绿洲。20世纪50年代以来,额济纳绿洲现代荒漠化过程加剧,绿洲萎缩,生态恶化。绿洲现代荒漠化过程是由水环境恶化过程、土壤干燥化过程、植被退化与生物多样性衰减过程、土地沙漠化过程和土壤盐碱化过程构成的地表动力学过程。导致额济纳绿洲荒漠化的驱动力是区域气候暖干化、强盛的风蚀侵蚀力、上中游过度开发水土资源的人为活动和额济纳绿洲内的“三滥”活动等。荒漠化驱动力的第一主成分与第二主成分的贡献率分别为59．276％和28．083％,反映出绿洲荒漠化驱动因子的多面性和综合性,绿洲内外过度的人为活动是其主导驱动因素。内在、外在驱动力在时间与空间上的耦合性是绿洲荒漠化的区域机制,驱动力因子团的互动-激发作用形成荒漠化的动力机制,驱动力与荒漠化土地间的响应形成正反馈机制,三种作用机制组合成绿洲现代荒漠化过程的复杂的驱动机制。     

近35 a内蒙古阿拉善盟绿洲化过程遥感分析

 绿洲是干旱区人类活动的高度聚集区,它的时空格局变化对社会经济发展有着至关重要的影响。以1975年至2010年间5期Landsat系列数据为信息源,通过目视解译提取阿拉善盟绿洲信息,在GIS空间分析功能的支持下,对绿洲时空格局变化进行了分析。研究结果表明,阿拉善绿洲按面积大小分布依次为:阿拉善左旗、额济纳旗和阿拉善右旗;1975—2010年间,阿拉善绿洲面积变化总体上呈先缩小后增长的趋势;其中草地的变化量最大,占整个绿洲变化面积的64.92%;研究区绿洲主导景观类型为天然草地,并且35 a内没有发生变化。