Discriminant Analysis for Compositional Data Incorporating Cell-Wise Uncertainties

Mathematical Geosciences - In the geosciences it is still uncommon to include measurement uncertainties into statistical methods such as discriminant analysis, but, especially for trace elements,...     

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

     

Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.     

Cartographic Design and the Space–Time Cube

This paper reports on the results of an empirical evaluation that aimed to define the effectiveness and efficiency of different visual variables in depicting the Space–Time Cube’s (STC) content. Existing STC applications demonstrate that the most used visual variables are size and colour hue. Less is known, however, about their usability metrics. The research sets design criteria for STC contents, such as space–time paths, based on the cartographic design theory. The visual variables colour hue, colour value, colour saturation, size and orientation have been applied in two different use case studies. Besides, to support the three-dimensional visual environment, depth cues such as shading and transparency were considered too. User tests have been executed based on real-world problems with particular attention for the visualization strategy and data complexity. The outcomes revealed the most efficient and effective visual variables to represent data of various complexities in the STC.     

Baja California 边缘PC14 岩芯海水表层温度及生产力变化的百年尺度记录

加利福尼亚流是北太平洋环流的重要组成部分,它的变化对全球气候及碳循环有重要影响.对位于东北太平洋低纬区BajaCalifornia外海的PC14柱状样进行了有机地球化学分析,重建了过去14ka来这一地区百年尺度的海水表面温度及生产力变化,发现其存在明显的B/A(Bling-Aller)和YD(Younger Drays)事件,但B/A和YD事件温度变化幅度小于中纬度地区.与中纬度加利福尼亚流系早中全新世温度降低不同,PC14全新世温度无明显变化趋势.这些结果表明了东太平洋低纬地区对高纬地区的气候响应以及沿岸上升流和ENSO现象对加利福尼亚流系中纬和低纬地区的影响不同.从冰消期到全新世,PC14生产力呈现阶段上升趋势,指示了由E1 Nino气候向La Nifia气候的转化以及沿岸上升流加强的总体趋势.在全新世中后期(6.5-3.8ka)生产力的降低,则可能是受ENSO加强的影响.在B/A暖期,PC14生产力增加不多,但氧最小层强度增加,这表明生产力变化不是东太平洋边缘海的氧最小层强化的控制因素.     

The AquaDEB project (phase I): Analysing the physiological flexibility of aquatic species and connecting physiological diversity to ecological and evolutionary processes by using Dynamic Energy Budgets

The European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011, http://www.ifremer.fr/aquadeb/) is joining skills and expertise of some French and Dutch research institutes and universities to analyse the physiological flexibility of aquatic organisms and to link it to ecological and evolutionary processes within a common theoretical framework for quantitative bioenergetics [Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic energy and mass budgets in biological systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge]. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB are i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability of natural or human origin, and ii) to evaluate the related consequences at different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). At mid-term life, the AquaDEB collaboration has already yielded interesting results by quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species (e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) with a single mathematical framework. It has also allowed to federate scientists with different backgrounds, e.g. mathematics, microbiology, ecology, chemistry, and working in different fields, e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, ecology, agronomy, ecotoxicology, climate change. For the two coming years, the focus of the AquaDEB collaboration will be in priority: (i) to compare energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and to identify the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; and to compare dynamic (DEB) versus static (SEB) energy models to study the physiological performance of aquatic species; (ii) to consider different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) to scale up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes.     

Detecting anomalous CO2 flux using space borne spectroscopy

Over the time-scale, earth's atmospheric CO₂ concentration has varied and that is mostly determined by balance among the geochemical processes including burial of organic carbon in sediments, silicate rock weathering and volcanic activity. The best recorded atmospheric CO₂ variability is derived from Vostok ice core that records last four glacial/interglacial cycles. The present CO₂ concentration of earth's atmosphere has exceeded far that it was predicted from the ice core data. Other than rapid industrialization and urbanization since last century, geo-natural hazards such as volcanic activity, leakage from hydrocarbon reservoirs and spontaneous combustion of coal contribute a considerable amount of CO₂ to the atmosphere. Spontaneous combustion of coal is common occurrence in most coal producing countries and sometimes it could be in an enormous scale. Remote sensing has already proved to be a significant tool in coalfire identification and monitoring studies. However, coalfire related CO₂ quantification from remote sensing data has not endeavoured yet by scientific communities because of low spectral resolution of commercially available remote sensing data and relatively sparse CO₂ plume than other geological hazards like volcanic activity. The present research has attempted two methods to identify the CO₂ flux emitted from coalfires in a coalmining region in north China. Firstly, a band rationing method was used for column atmospheric retrieval of CO₂ and secondly atmospheric models were simulated in fast atmospheric signature code (FASCOD) to understand the local radiation transport and then the model was implemented with the inputs from hyperspectral remote sensing data. It was observed that retrieval of columnar abundance of CO₂ with the band rationing method is faster as less simulation required in FASCOD. Alternatively, the inversion model could retrieve CO₂ concentration from a (certain) source because it excludes the uncertainties in the higher altitude.     

Onshore sandbar migration at Tairua Beach (New Zealand): Numerical simulations and field measurements

We observed the onshore migration (3.5 m/day) of a nearshore sandbar at Tairua Beach, New Zealand during 4 days of low-energy wave conditions. The morphological observations, together with concurrent measurements of waves and suspended sediment concentrations, were used to test a coupled, wave-averaged, cross-shore model. Because of the coarse bed material and the relatively low-energy conditions, the contribution of the suspended transport to the total transport was predicted and observed to be negligible. The model predicted the bar to move onshore because of the feedback between near-bed wave skewness, bedload, and the sandbar under weakly to non-breaking conditions at high tide. The predicted bathymetric evolution contrasts, however, with the observations that the bar migrated onshore predominantly at low tide. Also, the model flattened the bar, while in the observations the sandbar retained its steep landward-facing flank. A comparison between available observations and numerical simulations suggests that onshore propagating surf zone bores in very shallow water (< 0.25 m) may have been responsible for most of the observed bar behaviour. These processes are missing from the applied model and, given that the observed conditions can be considered typical of very shallow sandbars, highlight a priority for further field study and model development. The possibility that the excess water transported by the bores across the bar was channelled alongshore to near-by rip-channels further implies that traditional cross-shore measures to judge the applicability of a cross-shore morphodynamic model may be misleading.     

The influence of 70 and 120 kHz tonal signals on the behavior of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in a floating pen

Two harbor porpoises in a floating pen were subjected to five pure tone underwater signals of 70 or 120kHz with different signal durations, amplitudes and duty cycles (% of time sound is produced). Some signals were continuous, others were intermittent (duty cycles varied between 8% and 100%). The effect of each signal was judged by comparing the animals' surfacing locations and number of surfacings (i.e. number of respirations) during test periods with those during baseline periods. In all cases, both porpoises moved away from the sound source, but the effect of the signals on respiration rates was negligible. Pulsed 70kHz signals with a source level (SL) of 137dB had a similar effect as a continuous 70kHz signal with an SL of 148dB (re 1muPa, rms). Also, a pulsed 70kHz signal with an SL of 147dB had a much stronger deterring effect than a continuous 70kHz signal with a similar SL. For pulsed 70kHz signals (2s pulse duration, 4s pulse interval, SL 147dB re 1muPa, rms), the avoidance threshold sound pressure level (SPL), in the context of the present study, was estimated to be around 130dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 064 and around 124dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 047. This study shows that ultrasonic pingers (70kHz) can deter harbor porpoises. Such ultrasonic pingers have the advantage that they do not have a "dinner bell" effect on pinnipeds, and probably have no, or less, effect on other marine fauna, which are often sensitive to low frequency sounds.