Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.     

Wiener optimal filtering of GRACE data

We present a spatial averaging method for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity-field solutions based on the Wiener optimal filtering. The optimal filter is designed from the least-square minimization of the difference between the desired and filtered signals. It requires information about the power spectra of the desired gravitational signal and the contaminating noise, which is inferred from the average GRACE degree-power spectrum. We show that the signal decreases with increasing spherical harmonic degree j with approximately j^−b, where b = 1.5 for GRACE data investigations. This is termed the Second Kaula rule of thumb for temporal variations of the Earth’s gravity field. The degree power of the noise increases, in the logarithmic scale, linearly with increasing j. The Wiener optimal filter obtained for the signal model with b = 1.5 closely corresponds to a Gaussian filter with a spatial half width of 4° (∼440 km). We find that the filtered GRACE gravity signal is relatively insensitive to the exponent b of the signal model, which indicates the robustness of Wiener optimal filtering. This is demonstrated using the GFZ-GRACE gravity-field solution for April 2004.     

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

Problems associated with direct displacement-based design of concrete bridges with single-column piers, and some suggested improvements

Currently available displacement-based design (DBD) procedures for bridges are critically evaluated with a view to identifying extensions and/or modifications of the procedure, for it to be applicable to final design of a fairly broad class of bridges. An improved direct DBD procedure is presented, including a suite of comprehensive design criteria and proper consideration of the degree of fixity of the pier top. The design of an overpass bridge (originally designed to a current European Code), applying the improved ‘direct’ displacement-based design (DDBD) procedure is presented and both ‘conventional’ and displacement-based designs are assessed using non-linear response-history analysis (NLRHA); comparisons are made in terms of both economy and seismic performance of the different designs. It is seen that DDBD provided a more rational base shear distribution among piers and abutments when compared to the force-based design procedure and adequately captured the displacement pattern, closely matching the results of the more rigorous NLRHA.     

Über den Eisengehalt von Alumosilikaten aus Quarzknauern

Zusammenfassung Der Eisengehalt von Andalusiten und Disthenen aus Quarzknauern im Gebiet des Ötztaler—Stubaier Altkristallins wurde regional untersucht. Der Gehalt and Gesamteisen in primären Disthen liegt zwischen 0,17 und 0,22 Gew.% Fe₂O₃, während primäre Andalusite zwischen 0,26 und 1,93 Gew.% Fe₂O₃ schwanken. Dieser Unterschied in den Andalusiten wird auf ein wechselndes Angebot von Fe₂O₃ aus dem Nachbargestein der Knauern zurückgeführt.Ein Zusammenhang zwischen dem Eisengehalt der Andalusite und den verschiedenen Umwandlungsstadien Andalusit—Disthen konnte nicht nachgewiesen werden.

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On the iron content of alumosilicates in quartz nodules

Summary A determination of the regional distribution of the ironcontent of andalusites and kyanites in quartz-segregations of the Oetztal—Stubai crystalline complex gave values of 0.17–0.22% for the total iron in primary kyanite and 0.26–1.93% in andalusite. This difference is probably due to a variation in the Fe₂O₃-content in the country rocks of the quartz veins. No relationship between the iron-content in andalusite and the different stages of transformation from andalusite to kyanite could be established.

     

Facies Structure and Quantitative Parameters of Pleistocene Sediments of the Bering Sea

Lithofacies zoning is described for the first time for the Neo- and Eopleistocene of the Bering Sea. Four lithofacies sedimentation zones are distinguished: (I) terrigenous; (II) siliceous–terrigenous; (III) siliceous, and (IV) volcanoterrigenous ones. Corresponding maps were treated using Ronov volumetric method to quantify sedimentation parameters for distinguished lithofacies zones (subzones) and types of Pleistocene sediments. It was revealed that terrigenous sediments predominate over other sediments. Accumulation of the terrigenous sediments was more intense (by 1.4 times) in the Neopleistocene than in the Eopleistocene. The sedimentation rate of siliceous sediments of the Bowers Ridge in the Eopleistocene was two times higher than in the Neopleistocene.     

Evidence for short term changes in the intensity and spectrum of hard X-rays from Cyg X-1

The paper presents experimental evidence for the existence of fast intensity fluctuations with time scales of the order of a minute in the X-ray emission from Cyg X-1 at energies greater than 29 keV. Spectral variations over time intervals of 20–25 min are also observed in the same energy range. Whereas, similar intensity and spectral fluctuations have been reported earlier at lower energies the observations presented here is the first evidence for the existence of similar fluctuations at high energies.     

Linear and planar structure in ordered multivariate data as applied to progressive demagnetization of palaeomagnetic remanence

Summary. Consider a sequence of, say, 10 to 20 vector observations in three-dimensional space. It is suspected that a few subsets of consecutive observations are made up of collinear points. The purpose of this paper is to construct a statistically based algorithm to find such linear segments and to assess their accuracy. A similar assessment is made for coplanar sets of points.
This algorithm is applied here to palaeomagnetic data and is claimed to be superior to previous methods of palaeomagnetic analysis in terms of completeness and balance of analysis, treatment of measurement errors and other sources of scatter, criteria for identification of linear and planar sets of points, and statistical rigour. Stability spectra, with statistically based confidence limits, are obtained as a by-product.     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.