Input-output models

Summary Elementary mass balance and export models are explored in relation to eutrophication as caused by phosphorus and nitrogen. New criteria for phosphorus loading are given in relation to the ratio ‘mean depth-water fill-in-time’ . The results suggest that lakes having long water renewal times are much more sensitive to phosphorus loading than would appear from mean depth only. Further, from comparison of the relative residence time of nitrogen and phosphorus, it is deduced that—with increasing eutrophication—the nitrogen metabolism is speeded up beyond the point of simple proportionality which would explain the transition from phosphorus to nitrogen limitation in highly eutrophied lakes. It is further suggested that the principles derived from eutrophication in regard to the metabolism of phosphorus and nitrogen in lakes are applicable also to other environmental compartments and stress factors.

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Zusammenfassung Elementare Massenbilanzen und Exportmodelle werden bezüglich ihrer Bedeutung für die Eutrophierung von Seen mit Phosphor und Stickstoff untersucht. Als neues Kriterium für die Phosphorbelastung wird das Verh?ltnis ?mittlere Wassertiefe-Zeit der Wassererneuerung? eingeführt. Die Beobachtungen lassen vermuten, dass Seen mit langen Wassererneuerungsperioden viel empfindlicher auf die Phosphorbelastung ansprechen, als aus ihrer mittleren Tiefe geschlossen werden k?nnte. Aus dem Vergleich der mittleren Aufenthaltszeiten von Stickstoff und Phosphor ergibt sich, dass mit zunehmender Eutrophie der Stickstoffumsatz weit st?rker beschleunigt wird, als der einfachen Proportionalit?t zu seiner Konzentrationszunahme entsprechen würde. Dies erkl?rt die Verschiebung von Phosphor zu Stickstoff als limitierendem Faktor in hocheutrophierten Seen. Es wird vermutet, dass die Prinzipien, welche bezüglich der Eutrophierung aus dem Umsatz von Phosphor und Stickstoff in Seen abgeleitet werden, auch für andere Lebensr?ume und andere Belastungsfaktoren angewendet werden k?nnen.

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Résumé Un équilibre massive élémentaire et des modèles de sortie ont été explorés en relation avec l’eutrophisation provoquée par le phosphore et l’azote. De nouveaux critères ont été décrits en relation avec le taux ?profondeur moyenne?—durée de remplissage d’eau? . Les résultats suggèrent que les lacs dont la durée de renouvellement de l’eau est longue, sont beaucoup plus sensibles aux charges de phosphore, que ne laisserait appara?tre le critère seul de la profondeur moyenne. De plus, en comparant les durées relatives de séjour de l’azote et du phosphore, on déduit que—avec la progression de l’eutrophisation—le métabolisme de l’azote est accéléré au delà du point de simple proportionalité qui expliquerait la transition du phosphore à l’azote en tant que nutriment limitant dans des lacs fortement eutrophes. En outre, il est suggéré que les principes, dérivant de l’eutrophisation des lacs en relation avec le métabolisme du phosphore et de l’azote, sont également applicables à d’autres compartiments et facteurs de containte de l’environnement.

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Paper given at the Conference on Chemical-Ecological Considerations for Defining the Goals of Water Pollution Control, Kastanienbaum, Switzerland, April 19–21, 1972.     

Relationship between microseisms,geomagnetic activity and ionospheric absorption of radio waves

Summary Relatively good correlation between such remote phenomena as microseisms, geomagnetic activity and ionospheric absorption of radio waves has been observed. These phenomena are probably connected by a considerably increased penetration of energetic particles into the atmosphere under conditions of geomagnetic activity.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Look out, aurorae about!

Jim Wild recounts the rationale and success of AuroraWatch, a service that alerts you when you might be able to see aurorae.