Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

Electromagnetic studies in the central Arctic water basin

The results of the electromagnetic studies, obtained on the North Pole drifting stations, are reviewed. These results are still of current interest. The aspects of similar future works are discussed.     

The respiratory environment of the Namib Desert Golden Mole

We measured the partial pressure of oxygen (PO₂) in the interstitial gas surrounding the sand-swimming Namib moleEremitalpa granti namibensis. At a sand temperature of 26 °C, which produced a nearly maximal rate of oxygen consumption, thePO₂near the noses of the animals averaged only 0·9 kPa (6·7 Torr) below the level in the free atmosphere. High oxygen availability was a result of the notably low metabolic rate in the 20 g mammals and the dry, porous and metabolically inactive nature of dune sand. A mathematical model indicated that normal mammals weighing 200 g or more could comfortably exist completely encased in dune sand. We concluded that the moles' small size and low metabolic rate are not adaptations to hypoxia or hypercapnia underground but are probably related to low food availability and the energetic cost of foraging in their desert environment.     

Modeling the dynamics of a high specific energy plasma bulge in the upper atmosphere: 1. Physics of the processes and numerical simulation of the early stage of plasma bulge expansion and interaction with the ionosphere and geomagnetic field: A review

The physicomathematical features of the plasma explosion region dynamics at altitudes higher than 100 km at the early stage of its development, which culminates in the transfer of a considerable portion of the initial plasma energy into the environment, are discussed in the first part of the work. The radiation gas dynamic, inertial, and shock stages of the disturbed region development are calculated.     

RHESSI Microflares: II. Implications for Loop Structure and Evolution

We present simple analytic models which predict the peak X-ray emission measure and temperature attained in flares in which the chromospheric evaporation process takes place either in a single ‘monolithic’ loop or in a loop consisting of several filaments that are created successively as the energy release process proceeds in time. As possible mechanisms driving chromospheric evaporation we consider both classical heat conduction from the loop top and non-thermal electron beams. The model predictions are tested for a set of 18 well studied RHESSI microflares. The results suggest beam driven evaporation in filamented loops as being capable of accounting for the observed emission measures and temperatures though there are issues with the very high beam densities needed. On the other hand, estimates of the emission measures achieved by conductive evaporation which are derived by using the Rosner – Tucker – Vaiana (RTV) scaling law are much larger than the observed ones. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Gamma—Ray Bursts：Afterglows and Central Engines

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the most intense transient gamma-ray events in the sky; this, together with the strong evidence (the isotropic and inhomogeneous distribution of GRBs detected by BASTE) that they are located at cosmological distances, makes them the most energetic events ever known. For example, the observed radiation energies of some GRBs are equivalent to the total convertion into radiation of the mass energy of more than one solar mass. This is thousand times stronger than the energy of a supernova explosion. Some unconventional energy mechanism and extremely high conversion efficiency for these mysterious events are required. The discovery of host galaxies and association with supernovae at cosmoligical distances by the recently launched satellite of BeppoSAX and ground based radio and optical telescopes in GRB afterglow provides further support to the cosmological origin of GRBs and put strong constraints on their central engine. It is the aim of this article to review the possible central engines, energy mechanisms, dynamical and spectral evolution of GRBs, especially focusing on the afterglows in multi-wavebands.     

Spatiotemporal variability in channel deformations on rivers of Russia

We assess the spatiotemporal changes in channel processes on rivers of Russia, determine the causes for vertical (incision or directional sediment accumulation) and horizontal (displacement of channel forms) deformations and show the distribution of stream channel of different morphodynamical types and with a different reconfiguration rate. The conditions are revealed, under which the channel types change over time. Particular emphasis is placed on the analysis of spatiotemporal changes in channels caused by anthropogenic disturbances and by direct technogenic interferences in the life of rivers (hydroelectric schemes, quarries in the river channels, and waterway dredging).