Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a possible option for offsetting some anthropogenic radiative forcing, with the goal of reducing some of the associated climatic changes. There are clearly significant uncertainties associated with SRM, and even small-scale experiments that might reduce uncertainty would carry some risk. However, there are also natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM, such as volcanic eruptions in the case of stratospheric aerosol injection and ship tracks in the case of marine cloud albedo modification. It is essential to understand what we can learn from these analogs in order to validate models, particularly because of the problematic nature of outdoor experiments. It is also important to understand what we cannot learn, as this might better focus attention on what risks would need to be solely examined by numerical models. Stratospheric conditions following a major volcanic eruption, for example, are not the same as those to be expected from intentional geoengineering, both because of confounding effects of volcanic ash and the differences between continuous and impulsive injection of material into the stratosphere. Nonetheless, better data would help validate models; we thus recommend an appropriate plan be developed to better monitor the next large volcanic eruption. Similarly, more could be learned about cloud albedo modification from careful study not only of ship tracks, but of ship and other aerosol emission sources in cloud regimes beyond the narrow conditions under which ship tracks form; this would benefit from improved satellite observing capabilities.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.     

Persistent organic pollutants and stable isotopes in biopsy samples (2004/2006) from Southern Resident killer whales

“Southern Resident” killer whales include three “pods” (J, K and L) that reside primarily in Puget Sound/Georgia Basin during the spring, summer and fall. This population was listed as “endangered” in the US and Canada following a 20% decline between 1996 and 2001. The current study, using blubber/epidermis biopsy samples, contributes contemporary information about potential factors (i.e., levels of pollutants or changes in diet) that could adversely affect Southern Residents. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes indicated J- and L-pod consumed prey from similar trophic levels in 2004/2006 and also showed no evidence for a large shift in the trophic level of prey consumed by L-pod between 1996 and 2004/2006. ∑PCBs decreased for Southern Residents biopsied in 2004/2006 compared to 1993–1995. Surprisingly, however, a three-year-old male whale (J39) had the highest concentrations of ∑PBDEs, ∑HCHs and HCB. POP ratio differences between J- and L-pod suggested that they occupy different ranges in winter.     

On the significance of CO2 inclusions in plagioclase microphenocrysts in tholeiite from Moeraki,New Zealand

Liquid plus vapour inclusions of CO₂ are widespread in plagioclase microphenocrysts in small tholeiitic intrusions and tephra of the Moeraki and adjacent areas of northeast Otago, New Zealand. They imply the presence of immiscible CO₂ droplets in the magma at depths of about 7–14 km. Their presence within 5 μm of the edges of microphenocrysts as little as 35 μm thick and 118 μm long indicates minimal feldspar crystal growth during the final ascent and quenching of the magma. Delicate branching clusters of lath-like microphenocrysts escaped disruption during this ascent. Such CO₂ inclusions are a potential source of ‘excess argon’ perturbing K-Ar age determinations. Received March 24, 1993/Accepted September 10, 1993     

Cold anticyclonic eddies formed from cold pool water in the southern Middle Atlantic Bight

AVHRR satellite imagery of the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight during May 1993 revealed a large area of cold water over the shelf break and slope that appeared to spin up into a series of southward propagating anticyclonic eddies. The eddies had diameters of 35–45 km at the surface and moved southward at about 20 cm/sec. A radial TOYO CTD (to 50m) and ADCP velocity (to 400m) transect was conducted across the southern-most of these eddies. The upper 50 meters had minimum temperatures of less than 7°C and salinities of about 33 pss, characteristics similar to cold pool waters usually found over the continental shelf. ADCP velocity data from one of the eddies revealed anticyclonic flow extending to a depth of about 250m. The transport of cold pool water by the eddies was estimated to be 0.1 to 0.2 Sv which is of the same order as the annual mean alongshore transport of shelf water in this region. The origin of the deeper water within the eddy is unlikely to be the continental shelf because the shelf break is less than 100 m. The depth and velocity profiles along the TOYO transect were consistent with the constant potential vorticity eddy model of Flierl (1979) although the source of the eddy kinetic energy is uncertain. The cause for the exodus of cold pool water from the shelf, which extended northward to at least 38°N, is unclear but must involve the establishment of an alongshore baroclinic pressure gradient against the usual southwestward shelf flow. It is possible that the intrusion of Gulf Stream waters onto the shelf near Cape Hatteras was a precursor of this off shelf transport. The southern-most eddy was marked by high biological productivity and very high oxygen supersaturation. The phytoplankton bloom detected within the exported cold pool water, located over the continental slope, suggests a mechanism whereby production fueled by nutrients derived from the shelf can be locally exported into deep water.     

Equations for the Estimation of Strong Ground Motions from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Using Data from Europe and the Middle East: Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration

This article presents equations for the estimation of horizontal strong ground motions caused by shallow crustal earthquakes with magnitudes M_w 5 and distance to the surface projection of the fault less than 100km. These equations were derived by weighted regression analysis, used to remove observed magnitude-dependent variance, on a set of 595 strong-motion records recorded in Europe and the Middle East. Coefficients are included to model the effect of local site effects and faulting mechanism on the observed ground motions. The equations include coefficients to model the observed magnitude-dependent decay rate. The main findings of this study are that: short-period ground motions from small and moderate magnitude earthquakes decay faster than the commonly assumed 1/r, the average effect of differing faulting mechanisms is not large and corresponds to factors between 0.8 (normal and odd) and 1.3 (thrust) with respect to strike-slip motions and that the average long-period amplification caused by soft soil deposits is about 2.6 over those on rock sites. Disappointingly the standard deviations associated with the derived equations are not significantly lower than those found in previous studies.     

A Survey of Techniques for Predicting Earthquake Ground Motions for Engineering Purposes

Over the past four or five decades many advances have been made in earthquake ground-motion prediction and a variety of procedures have been proposed. Some of these procedures are based on explicit physical models of the earthquake source, travel-path and recording site while others lack a strong physical basis and seek only to replicate observations. In addition, there are a number of hybrid methods that seek to combine benefits of different approaches. The various techniques proposed have their adherents and some of them are extensively used to estimate ground motions for engineering design purposes and in seismic hazard research. These methods all have their own advantages and limitations that are not often discussed by their proponents. The purposes of this article are to: summarise existing methods and the most important references, provide a family tree showing the connections between different methods and, most importantly, to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Discretizing the fracture-matrix interface to simulate solute transport

This article examines the required spatial discretization perpendicular to the fracture-matrix interface (FMI) for numerical simulation of solute transport in discretely fractured porous media. The discrete-fracture, finite-element model HydroGeoSphere ( Therrien et al. 2005 ) and a discrete-fracture implementation of MT3DMS ( Zheng 1990 ) were used to model solute transport in a single fracture, and the results were compared to the analytical solution of Tang et al. (1981) . To match analytical results on the relatively short timescales simulated in this study, very fine grid spacing perpendicular to the FMI of the scale of the fracture aperture is necessary if advection and/or dispersion in the fracture is high compared to diffusion in the matrix. The requirement of such extremely fine spatial discretization has not been previously reported in the literature. In cases of high matrix diffusion, matching the analytical results is achieved with larger grid spacing at the FMI. Cases where matrix diffusion is lower can employ a larger grid multiplier moving away from the FMI. The very fine spatial discretization identified in this study for cases of low matrix diffusion may limit the applicability of numerical discrete-fracture models in such cases.     

Numerical simulations of a highway bridge structure employing passive negative stiffness device for seismic protection

A new passive seismic response control device has been developed, fabricated, and tested by the authors and shown to be capable of producing negative stiffness via a purely mechanical mechanism, thus representing a new generation of seismic protection devices. Although the concept of negative stiffness may appear to be a reversal on the desired relationship between the force and displacement in structures (the desired relationship being that the product of restoring force and displacement is nonnegative), when implemented in parallel with a structure having positive stiffness, the combined system appears to have substantially reduced stiffness while remaining stable. Thus, there is an ‘apparent weakening and softening’ of the structure that results in reduced forces and increased displacements (where the weakening and softening is of a non‐damaging nature in that it occurs in a seismic protection device rather than within the structural framing system). Any excessive displacement response can then be limited by incorporating a damping device in parallel with the negative stiffness device. The combination of negative stiffness and passive damping provides a large degree of control over the expected performance of the structure. In this paper, a numerical study is presented on the performance of a seismically isolated highway bridge model that is subjected to various strong earthquake ground motions. The Negative Stiffness Devices (NSDs) are described along with their hysteretic behavior as obtained from a series of cyclic tests wherein the tests were conducted using a modified design of the NSDs (modified for testing within the bridge model). Using the results from the cyclic tests, numerical simulations of the seismic response of the isolated bridge model were conducted for various configurations (with/without negative stiffness devices and/or viscous dampers). The results demonstrate that the addition of negative stiffness devices reduces the base shear substantially, while the deck displacement is limited to acceptable values. This assessment was conducted as part of a NEES (Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) project which included shaking table tests of a quarter‐scale highway bridge model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.