Orbital resonances in the inner neptunian system: I. The 2:1 Proteus-Larissa mean-motion resonance

We investigate the orbital resonant history of Proteus and Larissa, the two largest inner neptunian satellites discovered by Voyager 2. Due to tidal migration, these two satellites probably passed through their 2:1 mean-motion resonance a few hundred million years ago. We explore this resonance passage as a method to excite orbital eccentricities and inclinations, and find interesting constraints on the satellites' mean density () and their tidal dissipation parameters (Qs>10). Through numerical study of this mean-motion resonance passage, we identify a new type of three-body resonance between the satellite pair and Triton. These new resonances occur near the traditional two-body resonances between the small satellites and, surprisingly, are much stronger than their two-body counterparts due to Triton's large mass and orbital inclination. We determine the relevant resonant arguments and derive a mathematical framework for analyzing resonances in this special system.     

Operational earthquake forecasting in Europe: progress,despite challenges

Is Europe-wide operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) possible? We discuss the myriad problems that prevent it today, many of which relate to heterogeneities in earthquake recording, processing, and reporting. We contemplate the difficulty of building models that cross political boundaries, and we consider the prospect of European OEF in light of recent efforts to harmonize long-term seismic hazard assessment among several nations. Emphasizing the Strategies and Tools for Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction (REAKT) project, we report achievements related to short-term seismicity forecasting in Iceland and Italy that could apply elsewhere in Europe. In Iceland, collaboration fostered by REAKT resulted in a revised earthquake catalog and a prototype OEF system. We report results from an experiment conducted with this prototype; these results suggest ensemble models provide an information gain, updating models more frequently improves their forecast skill, and that OEF is computationally feasible. In Italy, REAKT supported the creation of an ensemble model that now issues weekly hazard forecasts. We present examples of these forecasts, highlighting the problem that OEF often yields low probabilities, which are difficult to interpret and convert into actionable decisions. Motivated by such low hazard probabilities, we highlight Europe’s pioneering efforts in operational earthquake loss forecasting and mention solutions to problems that currently prevent OEF at the European scale.     

Sidewall effects and sand trap efficiency in a large wind tunnel

Aeolian sand transport is a widespread physical phenomenon on the surface of Earth, as well as on Mars and Titan. Accurate measurements of the components of the transport system are necessary if we are to understand the nature of the physical processes. Sand traps are typically used to measure sediment transport rates, and issues associated with the sampling efficiency of traps and the development of reliable traps have received considerable attention in recent decades. In this study, we measured aeolian transport rate at five distances from a wind tunnel sidewall using a vertically‐segmented sand trap. Total transport rates were determined by weighing the bed sediment before and after each experiment, and with and without a trap installed. The following results were obtained: (1) sand transport increased linearly with the distance away from the sidewall, and the appropriate location to measure maximum transport is within the central 20% of the wind tunnel; (2) current methods overestimate the sampling efficiency of sand traps when comparing trap data to transport rate data obtained by weighing sand moved through the entire tunnel because the effects of the sidewalls in decreasing total transport are neglected; (3) the efficiency of the vertically‐segmented trap that we tested ranged from 11.57% to 31.68% using our revised methods, whereas standard methods caused efficiency to be overestimated by 32–72% of the efficiency; (4) using either method, the efficiency of the trap increased exponentially with shear velocity for the range we used. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time domain electromagnetic‐induced polarisation: extracting more induced polarisation information from grounded source time domain electromagnetic data

Electrical induced polarisation surveys are used to detect chargeable materials in the earth. For interpretation of time domain electrical‐induced polarisation data a common procedure is to first invert the direct current data (electric current on time) to recover conductivity and then invert the induced polarisation data (current off‐time) to recover chargeability. This direct current‐induced polarisation inversion procedure assumes that the off time data are free of secondary electromagnetic induction effects. To comply with this, early time data are often discarded or not recorded. For mid‐time data, an electromagnetic decoupling technique, which removes electromagnetic induction in the observations, needs to be implemented. Usually, responses from a half‐space or a layered earth are subtracted. Recent capability in three‐dimensional time domain electromagnetic forward modelling and inversion allows to revisit these procedures. In a Time domain electromagnetic‐induced polarisation survey, a high sampling rate allows early time channels of the electromagnetic data to be recorded. The recovery of chargeability then follows a three‐step workflow: (i) invert early time channel time domain electromagnetic data to recover the three‐dimensional conductivity; (ii) use that conductivity to compute the time domain electromagnetic response at later time channels and subtract this fundamental response from the observations to extract the induced polarisation responses, and (iii) invert the induced polarisation responses to recover a three‐dimensional chargeability. This workflow effectively removes electromagnetic induction effects in the observations and produces better chargeability and conductivity models compared with conventional approaches. In a synthetic example involving a gradient array, we show that the conductivity structure obtained from the early time channel data, which are usually discarded, is superior to that obtained from the steady state direct current voltages. This adds a further reason to collect these electromagnetic data.     

Glacial deposits at the Boyne Bay Limestone Quarry,Portsoy, and their place in the late Pleistocene history of northeast Scotland

The glacial deposits at the Boyne Bay Limestone Quarry near Portsoy, a key Quaternary Site of Special Scientific Interest, comprise (i) a sandy, partly weathered diamicton (Craig of Boyne Till Formation, CBTF) resting on decomposed bedrock, (ii) a central, variably glaciotectonised assemblage of dark clay, diamicton and sand, with rafts of sand and weathered diamicton (Whitehills Glacigenic Formation, WGF), and (iii) an upper dark sandy diamicton (Old Hythe Till Formation, OHTF). The CBTF was probably derived from the west or southwest, and the WGF from seawards. Structures within the OHTF conform to deposition by east‐ or southeast‐moving ice from the Moray Firth, but some erratics indicate derivation from the south. The CBTF is believed to pre‐date the last (lpswichian) interglacial, but the WGF and OHTF both post‐date the early Middle Devensian, and are probably of Late Devensian age. It is proposed that the OHTF was deposited by ice from inland which was directed eastwards near the coast by a vigorous glacier in the Moray Firth, and that the complex, Late Devensian glacial history of the south coast of the Moray Firth as a whole is the result of the interplay of these two contemporary ice‐masses. British Geological Survey. © NERC 2000.     

Episodic riverine influence on surface DIC in the coastal Gulf of Maine

Anomalously high precipitation and river discharge during the spring of 2005 caused considerable freshening and depletion of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in surface waters along the coastal Gulf of Maine. Surface pCO₂ and total alkalinity (TA) were monitored by repeated underway sampling of a cross-shelf transect in the western Gulf of Maine (GOM) during 2004–05 to examine how riverine fluxes, mixing, and subsequent biological activity exert control on surface DIC in this region. Most of the variability in surface DIC concentration was attributable to mixing of low DIC river water with higher DIC, saline GOM waters, but net biological uptake of DIC was significant especially during the spring and summer seasons. The extent and persistence of the coastal freshwater intrusion exerted considerable influence on net carbon dynamics. Integrated over the 10-m surface layer of our study region (∼5 × 10⁴ km²), net biological DIC uptake was 0.48 × 10⁸ mol C during April–July of 2004 compared to 1.33 × 10⁸ mol C during April–July of 2005. We found the temporal signature and magnitude of DIC cycling to be different in adjacent plume-influenced and non-plume regions. Extreme events such as the freshwater anomaly observed in 2005 will affect mean estimates of coastal carbon fluxes, thus budgets based on short time series of observations may be skewed and should be viewed with caution.     

Changes in water quality following tidal inundation of coastal lowland acid sulfate soil landscapes

This study examines the remediation of surface water quality in a severely degraded coastal acid sulfate soil landscape. The remediation strategy consisted of partial restoration of marine tidal exchange within estuarine creeks and incremental tidal inundation of acidified soils, plus strategic liming of drainage waters. Time-series water quality and climatic data collected over 5 years were analysed to assess changes in water quality due to this remediation strategy. A time-weighted rainfall function (TWR) was generated from daily rainfall data to integrate the effects of antecedent rainfall on shallow groundwater levels in a way that was relevant to acid export dynamics. Significant increases in mean pH were evident over time at multiple monitoring sites. Regression analysis at multiple sites revealed a temporal progression of change in significant relationships between mean daily electrical conductivity (EC) vs. mean daily pH, and TWR vs. mean daily pH. These data demonstrate a substantial decrease over time in the magnitude of creek acidification per given quantity of antecedent rainfall. Data also show considerable increase in soil pH (2–3 units) in formerly acidified areas subject to tidal inundation. This coincides with a decrease in soil pe, indicating stronger reducing conditions. These observations suggest a fundamental shift has occurred in sediment geochemistry in favour of proton-consuming reductive processes. Combined, these data highlight the potential effectiveness of marine tidal inundation as a landscape-scale acid sulfate soil remediation strategy.     

Experimentally determined Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios in juvenile bivalve calcite for Mytilus edulis: implications for paleotemperature reconstructions

To further evaluate the potential use of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios as a paleothermometer in the shell carbonate of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, we grew juvenile mussels (～15 mm shell height; <2 years old) collected from Maine, USA, in controlled environments for 4 months. The four-by-three factorial design consisted of four circulating temperature baths (7, 11, 15 and 19°C), and three salinity ranges (23, 28, and 32). During the experiment, water Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca molar ratios were monitored weekly, and showed little variation across all salinity and temperature ranges. Data from sampled shells including all salinity treatments yielded relatively poor relationships between shell elemental chemistry and water temperatures. However, if only the low salinity treatment data (23) are used, the relationships between shell elemental chemistry and water temperature improve moderately. Based on the data presented here, it may be possible to use Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios from the shell carbonate of juvenile M. edulis to reconstruct paleotemperatures in estuarine settings (salinity below 24) with a corresponding RMSE (root mean squared error; 95% confidence interval) of ±2.4°C and ±2.8°C, respectively. In order for this methodology to be statistically meaningful, water temperature changes must be rather large, as the errors associated with using Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios from the shell material of M. edulis are substantial. Further work is required to determine if the findings presented here can be duplicated, and if the potential salinity effect is pervasive.     

Effects of diel period and tow duration on estuarine fauna sampled with a beam trawl over bare sediment: Consequences for designing more reliable and efficient surveys

The effects of diel period and tow duration (5, 10 and 20 min) on samples of estuarine fauna in a beam trawl, were tested over bare sediment in Tuggerah Lake (New South Wales, Australia). Mean catch rates (numbers of fish caught 5 min⁻¹) were significantly larger at night for the total numbers of individuals and abundant, economically important species of fish and invertebrates (e.g. Gerres subfasciatus, Metapenaeus macleayi, Penaeus plebejus). Greater proportions of larger fish were also caught at night for some species (e.g. G. subfasciatus, Acanthopagrus australis, Rhabdosargus sarba), but not across all tow durations. Multivariate analyses detected dissimilarities in the composition and structure of assemblages between diel periods, which were driven by species caught predominately, or in larger proportions, at night. Short tows (5 min) were more efficient than longer tows (10 or 20 min) for sampling the diversity of species (i.e. most species were caught in the first 5 min of a tow). There were, however, no clear or consistent patterns relating to the effect of tow duration on the catch rates of other variables, the size ranges of abundant species, or the structure and composition of assemblages. Our data confirm that at night, bare sediment is an important habitat for a wide size- and species-range of estuarine fish and invertebrates. In future, more cost-effective and reliable information concerning these taxa would be achieved by sampling with the beam trawl at night, using tow durations of 5 min. We also highlight a problem inherent in the design of many studies of diel variation of fauna (i.e. the potential non-independence of data among day and night periods) and discuss its solution.