天然气水合物开采储层出砂研究进展与思考

天然气水合物开采井眼出砂问题是当前水合物产业化急需突破的瓶颈之一,解决水合物开采时防砂与产能平衡问题是实现水合物安全高效、长期可控开采的关键.我国海域典型水合物储层属于弱固结的低渗泥质粉砂储层,其面临的防砂控泥与增产矛盾较为突出.厘清不同水合物储层和开采条件下的井眼出砂规律并揭示其机理,进而制定科学合理的防砂控泥措施以实现产能最大化是解决上述矛盾的途径所在.从理论分析、数值模拟、室内实验和现场试采4个角度介绍了世界范围内已开展的水合物出砂防砂情况,分析总结了水合物储层出砂影响因素及出砂机理,最后探讨了目前出砂研究存在的问题和挑战,并给出了相应的建议,旨在为后续水合物开采井眼出砂预测和防控研究提供思路和参考.     

海洋产业影响省域经济增长估计及其分异动因判识

采用静态和动态计量方法分析2006~2015年海洋经济对沿海省（市、区）经济发展的影响程度并通过空间计量方法识别差异动因。研究发现：① 海洋经济对中国省域经济发展具有显著地影响,其中天津、上海、福建、山东、广东、海南海洋经济总量贡献率高于全国平均水平;② 省域海洋产业对区域经济影响度分异呈现省际绝对差异不断扩大、相对差异不断缩小,且具有显著的空间相关性;③ 引起省域经济增长差异的海洋经济相关因素中,海洋第二产业、海洋进出口贸易额等起到正向促进作用（即拉大差异）,且海洋第二产业结构具有显著的溢出效应。相关发现有助于中国沿海省（市、区）经济的协调发展和科学决策。     

机载雷达定量测雨中雨滴谱参数的优化

机载雷达可以方便地跟踪观测对象,并且可以观测某些地基雷达较难观测的区域（如海洋）,因此近年来在大气遥感领域得到越来越广泛的应用。为了获得一个较好的地面分辨率,机载雷达使用X波段的衰减频率。虽然雷达波受到的衰减通过算法可以进行订正,但由于雨滴谱的范围较宽,使得利用Z-R或k-R经验公式来确定雨强仍具有较大的不确定性。该文应用在西太平洋进行的国际大型科学考察实验TOGA/COARE中1993年1月和2月间取得的机载雷达实测数据进行定量测雨中雨滴谱参数优化的尝试。     

Nonlinear analysis for the coupled problem of temperature and seepage fields in cold regions tunnels

The govrrning differential equations of the coupled problem of temperature and seepage fields with phase change are first derived from the theory of heat transfer and the theory of seepage. The finite element formulae of this problem are obtained from Galerkin’ s method. And considering the seepage influence, an illustrative example of the temperature field in a cold-region tunnel is provided. The example shows that the influence of seepage on the frozen depth of the tunnel is very great, and thus the effect of the seepage factor should be taken into account in the engineering design     

非开挖顶杆—扩孔铺管技术中顶杆力的确定

论述了非开挖顶杆—扩孔铺管施工技术中顶杆力的计算方法,并成功地应用这一理论指导了工程实践。     

中国湖泊综合分类原则、级别划分及分类程序之初探

在略述了国内外湖泊分类研究现状的基础上,探讨了开展我国湖泊综合分类的原则、级别划分以及综合分类所应该遵循的程序。主导因素与综合因素相结合,建立分类的主导标志,是湖泊综合分类系统中高层次分类的关键;区域相似性（相对一致性）与差异性的对比分析是低层次分类的重要环节。在此基础上,还应充分考虑到人类经济活动的方式与强度对湖泊诸自然因素的影响,以便使湖泊综合分类工作既具有理论上的意义,同时又具有实用价值。级     

利用模拟退火法反演大陆地震位置

为了精确得到大陆地震震源位置,利用模拟退火法对大陆地震参数进行反演,并对改变算法中相关参数后的反演结果进行分析,表明反演精度受降温速度和收敛阈值的影响较大,初始温度只影响迭代次数,模拟退火法在对模型参数进行全局搜索情况下能获得质量较好的最优解。     

基于高分辨率影像的九寨沟7.0级地震道路震害评估

2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震引发贯通重灾区的S301省道、Z120县道多处损坏,给应急救援和灾后重建带来较大困难。利用高分辨率无人机和卫星影像可以对道路震害情况进行评估。本文首先对道路震害进行破坏类型和破坏等级的划分,针对不同分辨率影像所表现的道路破坏特征,建立各破坏等级、各损坏类型的解译标志,并完成灾区遥感图像覆盖范围内主要道路震害的研判与评估。经统计分析,研究区域共出现110处明显破坏,其中,68处为部分损坏,42处为完全损毁,道路整体破坏严重。     

辽北开原地区房木花岗斑岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及地球化学特征

研究区位于华北克拉通北缘东段、华北克拉通与兴蒙造山带的交接部位。本文通过对辽北开原地区房木花岗斑岩的岩石学、年代学和地球化学研究,探讨了其形成时代、岩石成因和构造环境,并进一步探讨了华北克拉通东部岩石圈减薄的起始时间。用LA-ICP-MS技术测定了花岗斑岩的锆石U-Pb同位素,获得其锆石²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U加权平均年龄为（117±1）Ma,表明花岗斑岩形成于早白垩世。花岗斑岩具有高硅、富碱、贫镁和钙的特征,富集大离子亲石元素（K、Rb）和高场强元素（Th、Ta、Nb）,亏损Sr、Ba、P、Ti元素,稀土配分曲线均呈现右倾海鸥型,具有明显的负Eu异常;显示研究区花岗斑岩为A型（A₁亚型）花岗岩,形成于古太平洋俯冲的后造山伸展环境,其岩浆源于地幔物质上涌而导致的地壳物质重熔。研究区在（156±1）Ma之前,属于挤压造山环境,表明研究区岩石圈减薄时间应处于156~117 Ma之间。     

Influence of Fluctuating Groundwater Table on Volatile Organic Chemical Emission Flux at a Dissolved Chlorinated-Solvent Plume Site

Groundwater elevation fluctuation has been recognized as one mechanism causing temporal indoor air volatile organic chemical (VOC) impacts in vapor intrusion risk assessment guidance. For dissolved VOC sources, groundwater table fluctuation shortens/lengthens the transport pathway, and delivers dissolved contaminants to soils that are alternating between water saturated and variably saturated conditions, thereby enhancing volatilization potential. To date, this mechanism has not been assessed with field data, but enhanced VOC emission flux has been observed in lab-scale and modeling studies. This work evaluates the impact of groundwater elevation changes on VOC emission flux from a dissolved VOC plume into a house, supplemented with modeling results for cyclic groundwater elevation changes. Indoor air concentrations, air exchange rates, and depth to groundwater (DTW) were collected at the study house during an 86-d constant building underpressurization test. These data were used to calculate changes in trichloroethylene (TCE) emission flux to indoor air, during a period when DTW varied daily and seasonally from about 3.1 to 3.4 m below the building foundation (BF). Overall, TCE flux to indoor air varied by about 50% of the average, without any clear correlation to changes in DTW or its change rate. To complement the field study, TCE surface emission fluxes were simulated using a one-dimensional model (HYDRUS 1D) for conditions similar to the field site. Simulation results showed time-averaged surface TCE fluxes for cyclic water-table elevations were greater than for stationary water-table conditions at an equivalent time-averaged water-table position. The magnitudes of temporal TCE emission flux changes were generally less than 50% of the time-averaged flux, consistent with the field site observations. Simulation results also suggested that TCE emission flux changes due to groundwater fluctuation are likely to be significant at sites with shallow groundwater (e.g., < 0.5 m BF) and permeable soil types (e.g., sand).