2017年5月11日新疆塔什库尔干5.5级地震生命损失评估对比分析

2017年5月11日,新疆喀什地区塔什库尔干县发生5.5级地震。地震造成8人死亡、31人受伤以及财产损失,属于典型的“小震大灾”。按照一般的地震灾害损失快速评估方法,得到的评估结果与实际结果差别较大。为探讨评估结果偏离的原因,本文对不同地震损失评估方案进行比较分析,探讨了地震致灾性（地震影响场分布）、承灾体（人口）分布等因素对地震损失评估结果的影响。结果表明在此次地震快速评估中,基于宏观震中确定的地震影响场较微观震中更接近实际分布;地震烈度衰减的平均估计模型给出的地震烈度区面积明显小于实际面积;极震区存在抗震能力相对低的土木、砖木结构房屋,是造成该地震震级相对小而生命损失相对大的“小震大灾”的重要原因。对比分析结果表明,提高人口、房屋建筑等风险暴露数据的空间精准性,改善地震震中定位与地震影响场估计的准确性,将有助于提高地震应急损失评估的准确性。     

A Type-Curve Method for the Analysis of Pumping Tests with Piecewise-Linear Pumping Rates

Aquifer hydraulic parameters are commonly inferred from constant-rate pumping tests, while variable pumping rates are frequently encountered in actual field conditions. In this study, we propose a generally applicable dimensionless form of the analytical solution for variable-rate pumping tests in confined aquifers. In particular, we adopt a piecewise-linear fitting of variable pumping rates and propose a new type-curve method for estimating the hydraulic conductivity (K ) and specific storage (S_s ) of the investigated confined aquifer. For each test, a series of type curves, which depend on the variable pumping rates, the location of observation wells and the introduced first dimensionless inflection time, need to be provided for matching the observed drawdown data on a log-log graph. We first demonstrate the applicability and robustness of this method through a synthetic pumping test. Subsequently, we apply this method to analyze drawdown data from four pumping tests conducted within a multilayered aquifer/aquitard system in Wuxi city, Jiangsu Province, China. The parameter estimates are then compared with those reported by PEST. The K and S_s values estimated by the new type-curve method are found to be quite close to PEST-based estimates. Parameter estimation results demonstrate the difference in K and S_s values between observation wells. The difference could be attributed to the spatial heterogeneity in K and S_s . A future research topic may focus on the characterization of K and S_s heterogeneity with the currently available drawdown data from variable-rate pumping tests.     

钢-混凝土组合结构体系抗震可靠性研究

天津市丽苑小区1号楼工程采用了新型的钢-混凝土组合结构体系,该体系由方钢管混凝土柱和钢梁组成的外框架以及混凝土剪力墙、核心筒组成。本文以该工程为研究对象,利用基于分支限界法编制的程序分析了这种新型结构体系的抗震可靠性,得出了若干结论。     

天津沿岸冷锋型温带风暴潮的客观分型研究

选取1956?2016年共126例天津沿岸风暴潮个例,基于统计资料研究其发生规律,并按照天气形势将之分类。冷锋型温带风暴潮个例占据全部风暴潮个例的60%以上,其平均每年发生1.28次,2013?2016年有明显增多的趋势。利用Lamb-Jenkinson(L-J)客观分型方法,对2003?2016年的冷锋型温带风暴潮个例进行客观分型,并计算5个环流指数。分型结果表明:除有1例无法归类外,其余均可进行客观分类。在全部分型的27类环流类型中,冷锋型温带风暴潮个例的环流主要集中在12类之中。其中反气旋混合偏东气流型、反气旋混合东北气流型、偏东气流型均发生较多次数,共占据了总数的58.8%。此3类出现次数多,产生的增水大,可认为冷锋型温带风暴潮个例依据客观分型再次细分为此3种主要类型。3种主要的客观环流类型80%集中出现在秋、冬季节。利用典型过程的海平面气压场进行对比分析,其客观分型结果可以对影响渤海的冷锋走向和冷高压中心位置进行区分。环流指数的强弱粗略的表示了风暴潮过程的强弱。客观环流类型和环流指数,可以为风暴潮个例对比分析提供客观依据。     

基于图式语言的少数民族传统村落空间布局特征研究

选取芋头村、皇都村、高上村及坪坦村4个典型侗族传统村落,以探究不同区域间图式语言的空间嵌套为目的,对侗族传统村落空间布局特征进行分析和总结。研究显示：① 不同侗族传统村落图式语汇类型多样,但互相之间存在共通性。通过对坪坦村进行图式语言空间嵌套,验证了侗族传统村落空间布局图式语言体系的有效性和普适性。② 侗族传统村落始终坚持“顺其自然,因地制宜”的基本理念有序发展,多呈现“水域空间–居住空间–连接空间–公共空间”的空间序列。③ 侗族传统村落整体上表现为以公共建筑为核心,周围建筑呈向心内聚式分布的特点。④ 侗族传统村落发展扩张中始终遵循本土性和秩序性的语法原则,空间要素的设计和布局多以传统风水观为指导。⑤ 传统村落空间布局图式语言体系对于同类型村落的空间修复与更新具有积极作用,其语汇、句法及语法的空间普适性有利于实现传统村落景观风貌的有效保护和可持续发展。     

“地理实践力”的培育与挖掘实践研究

在新修订的课程标准中,地理学科传统的三维目标逐步转向为由地理实践力、人地协调观、区域认知和综合思维所组成的核心素养四维目标。文章基于杭州市西湖区寻山路径标识系统和公共厕所布局合理性调查综合性实践活动,采用半自主考察模式,开展了高一年级地理实践力的培育和挖掘研究,并进一步对本阶段学生的地理学科能力进行了测度。     

Comparative analysis of real-time precise point positioning zenith total delay estimates

The continuous evolution of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) meteorology has led to an increased use of associated observations for operational modern low-latency numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which assimilate GNSS-derived zenith total delay (ZTD) estimates. The development of NWP models with faster assimilation cycles, e.g., 1-h assimilation cycle in the rapid update cycle NWP model, has increased the interest of the meteorological community toward sub-hour ZTD estimates. The suitability of real-time ZTD estimates obtained from three different precise point positioning software packages has been assessed by comparing them with the state-of-the-art IGS final troposphere product as well as collocated radiosonde (RS) observations. The ZTD estimates obtained by BNC2.7 show a mean bias of 0.21 cm, and those obtained by the G-Nut/Tefnut software library show a mean bias of 1.09 cm to the IGS final troposphere product. In comparison with the RS-based ZTD, the BNC2.7 solutions show mean biases between 1 and 2 cm, whereas the G-Nut/Tefnut solutions show mean biases between 2 and 3 cm with the RS-based ZTD, and the ambiguity float and ambiguity fixed solutions obtained by PPP-Wizard have mean biases between 6 and 7 cm with the references. The large biases in the time series from PPP-Wizard are due to the fact that this software has been developed for kinematic applications and hence does not apply receiver antenna eccentricity and phase center offset (PCO) corrections on the observations. Application of the eccentricity and PCO corrections to the a priori coordinates has resulted in a 66 % reduction of bias in the PPP-Wizard solutions. The biases are found to be stable over the whole period of the comparison, which are criteria (rather than the magnitude of the bias) for the suitability of ZTD estimates for use in NWP nowcasting. A millimeter-level impact on the ZTD estimates has also been observed in relation to ambiguity resolution. As a result of a comparison with the established user requirements for NWP nowcasting, it was found that both the G-Nut/Tefnut solutions and one of the BNC2.7 solutions meet the threshold requirements, whereas one of the BNC2.7 solution and both the PPP-Wizard solutions currently exceed this threshold.     

列车荷载下冻土路基非平稳随机振动分析的时域显式法北大核心CSCD

随着我国冻土地区铁路运营里程的不断提升,冻土路基在随机列车荷载作用下的动力响应分析成为了急需解决的工程问题。本文以青藏铁路某路基横断面为例,采用时域显式蒙特卡罗模拟法,计算其在随机列车荷载作用下响应的统计特征。首先,提出列车驶过施加在路基顶面荷载的快速计算方法,并引入轨道不平顺及列车行驶速度两类随机参数,以生成随机分析所需的大量荷载样本。然后,采用数值积分方法将运动方程在时域上进行离散,建立任意离散时刻冻土路基动力响应关于列车荷载的显式表达式。基于该显式表达式,可以高效地实施蒙特卡罗模拟,得到在随机列车荷载作用下路基关键响应的均值、标准差和峰值等统计量。采用该方法,分析了路基在夏冬两个季节不同深度处的随机动力响应,发现在夏季路基浅层中的位移和速度响应最为剧烈。数值算例表明,时域显式蒙特卡罗模拟法在冻土路基随机振动分析中具有理想的计算精度和计算效率。