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21.
Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term.  相似文献   
22.
In orogens worldwide and throughout geologic time, large volumes of deep continental crust have been exhumed in domal structures. Extension-driven ascent of bodies of deep, hot crust is a very efficient mechanism for rapid heat and mass transfer from deep to shallow crustal levels and is therefore an important mechanism in the evolution of continents. The dominant rock type in exhumed domes is quartzofeldspathic gneiss (typically migmatitic) that does not record its former high-pressure (HP) conditions in its equilibrium mineral assemblage; rather, it records the conditions of emplacement and cooling in the mid/shallow crust. Mafic rocks included in gneiss may, however, contain a fragmentary record of a HP history, and are evidence that their host rocks were also deeply sourced. An excellent example of exhumed deep crust that retains a partial HP record is in the Montagne Noire dome, French Massif Central, which contains well-preserved eclogite (garnet+omphacite+rutile+quartz) in migmatite in two locations: one in the dome core and the other at the dome margin. Both eclogites record P ~ 1.5 ± 0.2 GPa at T  ~  700 ± 20°C, but differ from each other in whole-rock and mineral composition, deformation features (shape and crystallographic preferred orientation, CPO), extent of record of prograde metamorphism in garnet and zircon, and degree of preservation of inherited zircon. Rim ages of zircon in both eclogites overlap with the oldest crystallization ages of host gneiss at c. 310 Ma, interpreted based on zircon rare earth element abundance in eclogite zircon as the age of HP metamorphism. Dome-margin eclogite zircon retains a widespread record of protolith age (c. 470–450 Ma, the same as host gneiss protolith age), whereas dome-core eclogite zircon has more scarce preservation of inherited zircon. Possible explanations for differences in the two eclogites relate to differences in the protolith mafic magma composition and history and/or the duration of metamorphic heating and extent of interaction with aqueous fluid, affecting zircon crystallization. Differences in HP deformation fabrics may relate to the position of the eclogite facies rocks relative to zones of transpression and transtension at an early stage of dome development. Regardless of differences, both eclogites experienced HP metamorphism and deformation in the deep crust at c. 310 Ma and were exhumed by lithospheric extension—with their host migmatite—near the end of the Variscan orogeny. The deep crust in this region was rapidly exhumed from ~50 to <10 km, where it equilibrated under low-P/high-T conditions, leaving a sparse but compelling record of the deep origin of most of the crust now exposed in the dome.  相似文献   
23.
This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050) and the far-future (2071–2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.  相似文献   
24.
Oxygen isotopes (δ18O) derived from archaeological Mercenaria campechiensis shells and Ariopsis felis otoliths potentially provide low-latitude paleoclimate data for studying Late Holocene human–climate interactions in coastal southwest Florida. Specimens analyzed come from the Pineland site complex. Deposits record abrupt and subtle environmental changes appearing to have been climate-related and to have impacted the sedentary human residents. One archaeological shell-otolith set dates to 2nd/3rd century A.D. within the Roman Optimum (RO) climatic episode. A second set dates to 13th/14th century A.D. within the Little Ice Age (LIA). A modern shell-otolith set was analyzed for comparison. δ18OARAGONITE of modern and LIA shells suggest similar seasonal conditions. RO shell is 1‰ more positive during summer, suggesting higher estuarine salinity than in modern and LIA times. Modern and LIA otoliths also have similar δ18OARAGONITE. Estimated Winter temperatures are within measured instrument records. Summer temperatures are overestimated reflecting Summer migration into less-saline water. Estimated Summer temperatures for RO otolith are similar to today's, suggesting elevated estuarine salinity and diminished rainy season, consistent with similar aged zooarchaeological assemblages. Comparisons of two taxa aid in interpreting archaeological δ18O data; however, early results are mixed with expected profiles for RO specimens and unexpected profiles for LIA specimens.  相似文献   
25.
Torsion experiments were performed on the Al2SiO5 polymorphs in the sillimanite stability field to determine basic rheological characteristics and the effect of deformation on polymorphic transformation. The experiments resulted in extensive transformation of andalusite and kyanite to sillimanite. No transformation occurred during the hot-press (no deformation) stage of sample preparation, which was carried out at similar PT conditions and duration as the torsion experiments. Experiments were conducted on fine-grained (< 15 µm) aggregates of natural andalusite, kyanite and sillimanite at 1250 °C, 300 MPa, and a constant shear strain rate of 2 × 10− 4/s to a maximum shear strain of 400%. Electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) analysis of the experiments revealed development of lattice-preferred orientations, with alignment of sillimanite and andalusite [001] slightly oblique to the shear plane. The kyanite experiment could not be analyzed using EBSD because of near complete transformation to sillimanite. Very little strain ( 30%) is required to produce widespread transformation in kyanite and andalusite. Polymorphic transformation in andalusite and kyanite experiments occurred primarily along 500 µm wide shear bands oriented slightly oblique and antithetic to the shear plane and dominated by sub-µm (100–150 nm) fibrolitic sillimanite. Shear bands are observed across the entire strain field preserved in the torsion samples. Scanning transmission electron microscope imaging shows evidence for transformation away from shear bands; e.g. fibrolitic rims on relict andalusite or kyanite. Relict grains typically have an asymmetry that is consistent with shear direction. These experimental results show that sillimanite is by far the weakest of the polymorphs, but no distinction can yet be made on the relative strengths of kyanite and andalusite. These observations also suggest that attaining high bulk strain energy in strong materials such as the Al2SiO5 polymorphs is not necessary for triggering transformation. Strain energy is concentrated along grain boundaries, and transformation occurs by a dynamic recrystallization type process. These experiments also illustrate the importance of grain-size sensitive creep at high strains in a system with simultaneous reaction and deformation.  相似文献   
26.
The Thor-Odin dome region of the Shuswap metamorphic core complex, British Columbia, contains migmatitic rocks exhumed from the deep mid-crust of the Cordilleran orogen. Extensive partial melting occurred during decompression of the structurally deepest rocks, and this decompression path is particularly well recorded by mafic boudins of silica-undersaturated, aluminous rocks. These mafic boudins contain the high-temperature assemblages gedrite+cordierite+spinel+corundum+kyanite/sillimanite±sapphirine±högbomite and gedrite+cordierite+spinel+corundum+kyanite/sillimanite+garnet±staurolite (relict)±anorthite. The boudins are interlayered with migmatitic metapelitic gneiss and orthogneiss in this region.

The mineral assemblages and reaction textures in these rocks record decompression from the kyanite zone (P>8–10 kbar) to the sillimanite–cordierite zone (P<5 kbar) at T750 °C, with maximum recorded temperatures of 800 °C. Evidence for high-temperature decompression includes the partial replacement of garnet by cordierite, the partial to complete replacement of kyanite by corundum+cordierite+spinel (hercynite)±sapphirine±högbomite symplectite, and the replacement of some kyanite grains by sillimanite. Kyanite partially replaced by sillimanite, and sillimanite with coronas of cordierite±spinel are also observed in the associated metapelitic rocks.

Partial melt from the surrounding migmatitic gneisses has invaded the mafic boudins. Cordierite reaction rims occur where minerals in the boudins interacted with leucocratic melt. When combined with existing structural and geochronologic data from migmatites and leucogranites in the region, these petrologic constraints suggest that high-temperature decompression was coeval with partial melting in the Thor-Odin dome. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between partial melting of the mid-crust and localized exhumation of deep, hot rocks by extensional and diapiric processes.  相似文献   

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Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO2, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO2 is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.  相似文献   
30.
Kilometer-scale lenses of quartz-rich metasedimentary rocks crop out in a discontinuous belt along the southern margin of the Menderes Massif, Turkey, and preserve evidence for high-pressure–low-temperature (HP–LT) metamorphism related to subduction of a continental margin during Alpine orogeny. Kyanite schist, quartzite, and quartz veins contain kyanite + phengite + Mg-chlorite, and the veins also contain magnesiocarpholite. A deformed carbonate metaconglomerate juxtaposed with the quartzite-dominated unit does not contain HP index minerals, and likely represents the tectonized boundary of the siliceous rocks with adjacent marble. The HP–LT rocks (10–12 kbar, 470–570 °C) record different pressure conditions than the adjacent, apparently lower pressure Menderes metasedimentary sequence. Despite this difference there is disagreement as to whether these HP–LT rocks are part of the Menderes sequence or are related to the tectonically overlying Cycladic blueschist unit. If the former, the entire southern Menderes Massif experienced HP–LT metamorphism but the evidence has been obliterated from most rocks; if the latter, rocks recording different metamorphic-kinematic conditions experienced different tectonic histories and were tectonically juxtaposed during thrusting. Based on observations and data in this study, the second model better accounts for the differences in PT-deformation histories of the southern Menderes Massif rocks, and suggests that the HP–LT rocks are not part of the Menderes cover sequence.  相似文献   
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