Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models

Recent studies of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia suggest higher susceptibility to hypoxia in years after the 1980s. We used two simple mechanistic models and Bayesian estimation of their parameters and prediction uncertainty to explore the nature of this regime shift. Model estimates show increasing nutrient conversion efficiency since the 1980s, with lower DO concentrations and large hypoxic volumes as a result. In earlier work, we suggested a 35% reduction from the average 1980–1990 total nitrogen load would restore the Bay to hypoxic volumes of the 1950s–1970s. With Bayesian inference, our model indicates that, if the physical and biogeochemical processes prior to the 1980s resume, the 35% reduction would result in hypoxic volume averaging 2.7 km³ in a typical year, below the average hypoxic volume of 1950s–1970s. However, if the post-1980 processes persist the 35% reduction would result in much higher hypoxic volume averaging 6.0 km³. Load reductions recommended in the 2003 agreement will likely meet dissolved oxygen attainment goals if the Bay functions as it did prior to the 1980s; however, it may not reach those goals if current processes prevail.     

Effect of attachment configuration on the trapping efficiency of Vaseline-coated slide catchers for windblown particles

There are various types of the windblown sediment traps developed for wind tunnel and field studies. One of the main supports expected from these traps is in measuring surface dust concentrations to appropriately derive flux equations. The measurement performance and accuracy of a trap is very important and depends strictly upon the physical characteristics and the behaviors of dust grains with air flows. This paper presents the measurement results of static pressure distribution (SPD) of wind flow around Vaseline-coated slide (VCS) catchers with an aim of finding out whether or not particle trapping efficiency (η) of the VCS is related to the SPD. The SPD was evaluated by a wind reduction coefficient (R _c) in a series of wind tunnel experiments with different VCS settings which have different attachment configurations on a pole. Three VCS configurations were considered: a configuration on a circular plastic pole (CPP) and two configurations on wooden square poles (WSP₁ and WSP₂, respectively). Thus, the primary contribution of this work was to experimentally analyze the effect of the different attachment configurations on the SPD, and the secondary objective was to determine the effect of the SPD on the η. It was shown that spatial correlation and spatial pattern of the R _c were different in the surrounding area of each configuration, and ANOVA and DUNCAN tests indicated that η(s) of WSP₁, WSP₂, and CPP were different at the significant level of P ≤ 0.05 with the mean of 0.94 ± 0.09, 0.63 ± 0.14, and 1.13 ± 0.07, respectively. Additionally, the amount of PM₂₀, PM₄₀, PM₆₀, PM₈₀, and PM₁₀₀ trapped by the configurations of WSP₁, WSP₂, and CPP considerably varied depending upon the particular aerodynamic circumstances associated with every configuration.     

Analysis and Simulation of Propagule Dispersal and Salinity Intrusion from Storm Surge on the Movement of a Marsh–Mangrove Ecotone in South Florida

Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.     

Low-velocity structure beneath Africa from forward modeling

Seismic waveforms observed in South Africa containing the first arrival crossover of S to SKS (70° to 110°) are analyzed. The data consist of analog records from the World Wide Seismographic Station Network (WWSSN) of deep events beneath South America. The S-waves arrive 2 to 3 s early relative to PREM at ranges from 70° to 95° and then become increasingly delayed, becoming 5 to 6 s late at 110°. The SKS phase is late by 3 to 5 s over the entire range. This pushes crossover between S and SKS, normally observed at about 81°, out about 2° to 3°, which is the most anomalous shift ever reported. To model such features, we modified Grand's tomography model [Grand et al., GSA Today 7 (1997) 1–7], and generated 2D synthetics to match the data. The overall shape and position of the lower mantle low-velocity anomaly proposed by Grand predicts good results if lower mantle anomalies are enhanced to a level of about 4%. This results in a complex tabular structure extending upward from the core–mantle boundary about 1500 km into the mantle. These features appear to be consistent with a large young plume which is erupting off the CMB.     

The effect of terrace geology on ground‐water movement and on the interaction of ground water and surface water on a mountainside near Mirror Lake,New Hampshire,USA

The west watershed of Mirror Lake in the White Mountains of New Hampshire contains several terraces that are at different altitudes and have different geologic compositions. The lowest terrace (FSE) has 5 m of sand overlying 9 m of till. The two next successively higher terraces (FS2 and FS1) consist entirely of sand and have maximum thicknesses of about 7 m. A fourth, and highest, terrace (FS3) lies in the north‐west watershed directly adjacent to the west watershed. This highest terrace has 2 m of sand overlying 8 m of till. All terraces overlie fractured crystalline bedrock. Numerical models of hypothetical settings simulating ground‐water flow in a mountainside indicated that the presence of a terrace can cause local ground‐water flow cells to develop, and that the flow patterns differ based on the geologic composition of the terrace. For example, more ground water moves from the bedrock to the glacial deposits beneath terraces consisting completely of sand than beneath terraces that have sand underlain by till. Field data from Mirror Lake watersheds corroborate the numerical experiments. The geology of the terraces also affects how the stream draining the west watershed interacts with ground water. The stream turns part way down the mountainside and passes between the two sand terraces, essentially transecting the movement of ground water down the valley side. Transects of water‐table wells were installed across the stream's riparian zone above, between, and below the sand terraces. Head data from these wells indicated that the stream gains ground water on both sides above and below the sand terraces. However, where it flows between the sand terraces the stream gains ground water on its uphill side and loses water on its downhill side. Biogeochemical processes in the riparian zone of the flow‐through reach have resulted in anoxic ground water beneath the lower sand terrace. Results of this study indicate that it is useful to understand patterns of ground‐water flow in order to fully understand the flow and chemical characteristics of both ground water and surface water in mountainous terrain. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measurement and implication of "effective" viscosity for rhyolite flow emplacement

Hazardous explosive activity may sporadically accompany the extrusion of silicic lava domes. Modelling of the emplacement of silicic domes is therefore an important task for volcanic hazard assessment. Such modelling has been hampered by a lack of a sufficiently accurate rheological database for silicic lavas with crystals and vesicles. In the present study, the parallel-plate viscometry method was applied to determine the shear viscosity of five natural rhyolitic samples from a vertical section through the Ben Lomond lava dome, Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand. Rheological measurements were performed at volcanologically relevant temperatures (780-950°C) and strain rates (10^-5-10^-7 s^-1). Although these samples are in the metastable state, viscosity determinations, melt composition, as well as water and crystal contents of samples were demonstrably stable during experiments. For samples containing up to 5 vol.% microlites, the composition of the melt, rather than the physical effect of suspended crystals, had greater influence on the effective viscosity of the silicic magma. Samples with 10 vol.% microlites and containing a flow banding defined by microlites show no significant orientational effects on apparent viscosity. The rheological measurements were used together with a simple cooling model to construct thermal and viscosity profiles revealing conditions during the emplacement of the Ben Lomond lava dome.     

The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Mission for the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS)

The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) is an advanced study of Earth's long-term global changes of solid Earth, its atmosphere, and oceans and includes a coordinated collection of satellites, data systems, and modeling. The EOS program was conceived in the 1980s as part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise (ESE). The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) is one of about 20 missions planned for the EOS program, and the SORCE measurement objectives include the total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) that are two of the 24 key measurement parameters defined for the EOS program. The SORCE satellite was launched in January 2003, and its observations are improving the understanding and generating new inquiry regarding how and why solar variability occurs and how it affects Earth's energy balance, atmosphere, and long-term climate changes.     

Accessory silicate mineral assemblages in the Bilanga diogenite: A petrographic study

Abstract— The petrographic relationships in diogenites between orthopyroxene and minor phases such as chromite, troilite, diopside, plagioclase, and silica are often obscured by the intense brecciation that characterizes these meteorites. Although brecciated, Bilanga preserves numerous clasts displaying primary textural relations between orthopyroxene and these minor phases that are large enough to analyze by electron microprobe. In this study, we focus on the distribution, composition, and origin of the minor phases in Bilanga to provide new insights into the crystallization and metamorphic history of these rocks. The samples examined consist mainly of orthopyroxene grains plus five types of assemblages containing diopside + a Fe‐rich phase (chromite, troilite, and/or Fe‐Ni metal) ± plagioclase ± silica. We interpret type 1 assemblages as being remnants of intercumulus melt trapped in the interstices between orthopyroxene grains after crystal settling in a magma chamber. Type 2 assemblages appear to have formed by heterogeneous exsolution during thermal metamorphism. Type 3 assemblages are believed to be remnants of other assemblages that have been shocked, melted, and rapidly recrystallized by impact events. Type 4 assemblages consist of veins that also appear to have formed from trapped intercumulus melt. Regions of silica‐rich mesostasis (type 5) appear to be larger patches of more evolved intercumulus melt that have been significantly affected by late‐stage impact melting. Finally, large clasts containing plagioclase ± diopside are interpreted to be exotic fragments of a different but possibly related rock type incorporated in the Bilanga breccia.     

New visualizations of global tectonic plate motions and plate boundary interactions

Clear understanding of detailed lithospheric plate motions has been impeded by lack of a suitable means of graphical representation. A series of coloured global maps are presented that reveal more detail in the patterns of both absolute and relative global plate motions. The use of continuous colour to represent velocities overcomes the limitations of earlier maps that used isolated vectors at selected points to indicate plate velocities. Velocity magnitudes and directions for entire surfaces of plates were computed at a resolution of 0.5°, and are shown on two separate maps. Relative motions between plates were decomposed into their shear and normal components, and are plotted on separate maps. Continuous colour is again used to indicate both the directions and magnitudes of sinistral/dextral and convergent/divergent motions for all plate boundaries. A final map of normalized velocity magnitudes for all plates reveals a global, fast 'belt' of plate motion that parallels a great circle aligned with the fastest portion of the Pacific Plate and orthogonal to the East Pacific Rise.     

Peak atmospheric entry temperatures of micrometeorites

Abstract— We present numerical calculations of the peak temperatures experienced by micrometeorites during atmospheric entry. Results are given for particle diameters between 2 and 50 μm and for entry velocities between 10 and 25 km/s. A material density of 2 g/cm³ and an entry angle of 45° are used for the calculation, but the results presented here can be easily reinterpreted for other densities and for vertical entry.