Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

Interpreting tracer breakthrough tailing in a conduit-dominated karstic aquifer

Breakthrough tailing has been observed during dye-tracing recovery tests in the Norville aquifer system (chalk), France. Karst-conduit flow and transport parameters were assessed using two different interpretative methods: the linear graphical method and the Chatwin method (implemented in the Qtracer2 program). The linear graphical method was used to model the observed tailing effects, which was explained by a second smaller delayed breakthrough curve. By comparing the results of tracer-test interpretation for the two methods, it was possible to relate the area of this second curve to the importance of turbulent flow in spring discharge. The more turbulent the flow, the less important the contribution of the second breakthrough curve and the tailing effect. The observed tailing could possibly be controlled by hydrodynamics to a greater extent than usually expected, the tailing effects being mostly attributed to diffusion phenomena. Tailing effects were expected to increase with discharge and the piezometric level, which would have resulted in overpressure in conduits, fissure flooding, etc. Instead, breakthrough tailing tended to disappear with increasing aquifer discharge, which would support the hypothesis of there being mostly hydrodynamic-controlled tailing effects instead of matrix- or fissure-diffusion.An erratum to this article can be found at     

二维地震观测系统合理性的论证方法

已知勘查区深度范围前提下,最大炮检X和道间距ΔX,不可以太大也不可以太小,施工前能够计算出它的允许值范围。     

基于广义Kопытов模型及乙型水驱曲线的综合预测法

将广义Kопытов预测模型和乙型水驱曲线方法有机的结合起来，得到了油田开发中后期——递减时期的一种预测水驱开发油田的含水率、产油量、产水量及其相应的累积产量随开发时间变化的方法，此方法克服了在水驱油田预测开发指标中二者所存在的局限性。     

Facies architecture of a submarine fan channel–levee complex: the Juniper Ridge Conglomerate, Coalinga, California

The Upper Cretaceous Juniper Ridge Conglomerate (JRC) near Coalinga, California, provides a rare, high-quality exposure of a submarine channel to overbank transition. The facies architecture of the JRC comprises a thick, predominantly mudstone sequence overlain by a channellized conglomerate package. Conglomeratic bounding surfaces truncate successions of interbedded turbiditic sandstones and mudstones both vertically and laterally. Thick-bedded, massive sandstones are interbedded with conglomerates. Facies architecture, palaeocurrent indicators, slump features, sandstone percentages and sandstone bed thickness trends lead to the interpretation that these elements comprise channel and overbank facies. A vertical sequence with conglomerate at the base, followed by thick-bedded sandstone, and capped by interbedded turbiditic sandstone and mudstone form a fining-upward lithofacies association that is interpreted as a single channel-fill/overbank system. Three similar lithofacies associations can be related to autocyclic processes of thalweg migration and submarine fan aggradation or to allocyclically driven changes in sediment calibre.     

Rates of Deglaciation during the Last Glaciation and Holocene in the Cordillera Vilcanota-Quelccaya Ice Cap Region, Southeastern Perú

Moraine chronology is combined with digital topography to model deglacial rates of paleoglacier volumes in both the Huancané Valley on the west side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap and the Upismayo Valley on the northwest side of the Cordillera Vilcanota. The fastest rates of deglaciation (39×10⁻⁵ to 114×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ and 112×10⁻⁵ to 247×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ for each valley, respectively) were calculated for the most recent paleoglaciers, corresponding to the last few centuries. These results are consistent with observations in the Venezuelan Andes showing high rates of deglaciation since the Little Ice Age. These rates also fall within the range of 20th century rates of deglaciation measured on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (29×10⁻⁵ to 220×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹, Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Thompson, 2000). These results imply that rates of deglaciation may fluctuate significantly over time and that high rates of deglaciation may not be exclusive to the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depressions for the ice volumes of the last glaciation modeled here were computed as 230 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap and 170 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota. Maximum ELA depressions are lower than previously published: <500 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota and <400 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap. These lower values could imply a topographic control over paleoglacier extent.     

Thermal expansivities of supercooled haplobasaltic liquids

The thermal expansion of supercooled liquids in the haplobasaltic (anorthite-diopside) system have been determined via methods of container-based dilatometry. The expansivity data obtained in this study agree well with estimates provided by previous dilatometric determinations in the system that have relied on alternative experimental strategies. The data have been combined with high-temperature, superliquidus determinations of melt density to obtain expressions for the volume-temperature (V-T) relationships of liquids in the anorthite-diopside system. The V-T data clearly indicate a nonlinear temperature dependence of volume for all melts investigated. The variation is most striking for diopside, where the coefficient of volume thermal expansion decreases ∼56% from temperatures near the glass transition to superliquidus temperatures. With increasing anorthite content, the degree of variation appears to decrease. An₄₂Di₅₈ exhibits a decrease of 39% of its coefficient of thermal expansion and An₉₈Di₀₂ of 33%, respectively. The expansivities obtained in this study cannot be reproduced by means of published models that are based on linear V-T relationships. They require instead a reanalysis of existing pressure-V-T equations of state models for silicate melts.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

The Permeable City: Toronto's Spatial Shift at the Turn of the Millennium

This article presents an analysis of the relationship between urban governance restructuring, and global, national, and local action through a case study of the Toronto city‐region. The Toronto city‐region recently underwent a massive reorganization of its governance structures, functions, and jurisdictional boundaries. This restructuring raises questions about why these changes occurred at this particular juncture in the region's history. Why did the city that had always been known in the academic and political discourse as the “city that works” stop “working”? What global and national forces might have accounted for such a radical restructuring? And what did local action contribute? These questions are explored in both historical and contemporary contexts by drawing on insights from regulation theory, urban regime theory, and an analysis of Canada's changing fiscal federalism. This approach informs the role that institutions — regardless of their origin or territorial scope — play in sustaining a local accumulation system, and how this “local” accumulation grounds a national regulatory mode and regime of accumulation. The approach also explores the relationship between regime and regulation theories in the context of policy formation and institution building. The study concludes that the current policy set is incapable of resolving the region's crisis tendencies. Notwithstanding external forces, the current policy set is not inevitable. Globalization does not predetermine all spatial‐economic outcomes.