Change in North American Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Deep Convection and Severe Weather using CRCM4 Climate Projections

Severe weather has important social and economic impacts. Some studies have indicated that its intensity may increase over this century as a consequence of climate change induced by greenhouse gases. This study aims to investigate the possibility of a future increase in deep convective events over North America resulting from the evolution of favourable atmospheric conditions. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of projections performed using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) at 45?km resolution, driven by different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and reanalyses. We concentrate our study on Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertical wind shear, and convective precipitation. Based on two different approaches to linking atmospheric conditions and severe weather, we find that the number of extreme weather events is expected to increase during the twenty-first century. In agreement with other studies on this subject, we find that CAPE is expected to increase, whereas wind shear is expected to decrease slightly. Through the analysis of the CRCM's convective precipitation outputs, we show that severe convective liquid precipitation events may become both more frequent and slightly more intense. Sensitivity experiments show that results depend on the driving GCM although they confirm the general conclusions. Additional experiments conducted with reduced humidity input at the lateral boundaries show the significant role that the humidity level of the driving GCMs has on simulated extreme regional events. At the regional level results are, in general, consistent with those found at the continental scale, but large inter-regional variations exist.     

Trade in ‘virtual carbon’: Empirical results and implications for policy

The fact that developing countries do not have carbon emission caps under the Kyoto Protocol has led to the current interest in high income countries in border taxes on the ‘virtual’ carbon content of imports. We use GTAP data and input-output analysis to estimate the flows of virtual carbon implicit in domestic production technologies and the pattern of international trade. The results present striking evidence on the wide variation in the carbon-intensiveness of trade across countries, with major developing countries being large net exporters of virtual carbon. Our analysis suggests that a tax on virtual carbon could lead to very substantial effective tariff rates on the exports of the most carbon-intensive developing nations. As an illustration, we find that average tariff rates of 10%, 8% and 12% would be faced by imports from China, India and South Africa if carbon is taxed at $50/ton CO₂. Moreover, there is wide variation in intensiveness across sectors within countries with implications for the disparate effective tariff burdens on particulars parts of the economies of these countries. Such empirical findings, we argue, are useful for framing on-going discussions about the principles and practice of border taxes on virtual carbon.     

Optimal removal of topological artefacts in microtomographic images of porous materials

The analysis of flow at the pore scale in porous media has been facilitated with the use of microtomography. A powerful tool for quantifying the fluid structure using these tomographic 3D reconstructions is skeletonisation, but the significant disadvantage of this method is its sensitivity to noise, resulting in artefacts in the skeleton. A pre-processing of the 3D image is therefore required, but no method has yet proven to completely solve this problem. By developing a new procedure that, by construction, directly identifies the voxels and only those that are responsible for topological artefacts in the skeleton, we are able to remove all artefacts, and furthermore can prove that we do so by modifying a minimal amount of voxels in the segmented 3D image (i.e. the tomographic image in which each voxel has been assigned to either the porous or the solid phase). This is possible by identifying the three fundamental types of artefacts that can arise in a 3D skeleton, and dealing with each appropriately. Application to a microtomographic image of a sintered glass powder is presented. Impact of the different processing methods on the flow within its porosity is measured through the computed permeability deviations.     

Multi‐Element Determination of Trace Elements in Natural Water Reference Materials by ICP‐SFMS after Tm Addition and Iron Co‐precipitation

We report on an improved method for determining trace element abundances in seawater and other natural waters. The analytical procedure involves co‐precipitation on iron hydroxides after addition of a Tm spike, and measurement by inductively coupled plasma‐sector field mass spectrometry (ICP‐SFMS). The validity of the method was assessed through a series of co‐precipitation experiments, using ultra‐diluted solutions of a certified rock reference material (BIR‐1). Results obtained for four natural water reference materials (NASS‐5, CASS‐4, SLEW‐3, SLRS‐4) are in agreement with published working values for rare earth elements, yttrium, vanadium and, when available, for hafnium, zirconium, thorium and scandium. A set of proposed values with uncertainties typically better than 8% RSD is proposed for Hf, Zr and Th.     

GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING Reference Glasses for In Situ and Bulk Isotopic Determination

This paper contains the results of an extensive isotopic study of United States Geological Survey GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING reference glasses. Thirteen different laboratories were involved using high‐precision bulk (TIMS, MC‐ICP‐MS) and microanalytical (LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, LA‐ICP‐MS) techniques. Detailed studies were performed to demonstrate the large‐scale and small‐scale homogeneity of the reference glasses. Together with previously published isotopic data from ten other laboratories, preliminary reference and information values as well as their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level were determined for H, O, Li, B, Si, Ca, Sr, Nd, Hf, Pb, Th and U isotopes using the recommendations of the International Association of Geoanalysts for certification of reference materials. Our results indicate that GSD‐1G and the MPI‐DING glasses are suitable reference materials for microanalytical and bulk analytical purposes.     

Freshwater seepages and ephemeral macroalgae proliferation in an intertidal bay: II. Effect on benthic biomass and metabolism

Intertidal soft-sediments biomass and metabolism are naturally heterogeneous in time and space at different scales. Particular perturbations such as freshwater seepages and seasonal proliferation of ephemeral macroalgae can intermittently and/or locally create additional variability in these systems. Since the impacts of such environmental stresses on natural processes are not well understood, the hypothesis that they would affect the functioning of the benthic system was tested. An intertidal bay whose structure and functioning has been previously described and where a carbon budget has been calculated, was chosen. The results showed that the metabolism of the intertidal sediments was greatly impacted by the above perturbations. Freshwater seepage increased meiofauna and microalgae biomasses and enhanced the total benthic metabolism (increasing community respiration and gross primary production until 4 and 2 fold respectively) without altering its seasonal trend. Ephemeral macroalgae proliferation had a more important effect on the total benthic metabolism, increasing community respiration and gross primary production 8 and 12 fold respectively and leading to a change in the seasonal trend.     

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications,Approaches and Challenges

This article examines the current practice of streamflow modelling, a field under development for over a century. A sample of the wide range of assessment and planning applications of streamflow models is presented. The diversity in the use of these models is mirrored in the diversity of model complexity, and modelling approaches ranging from empirical to physically based and from lumped to fully distributed are described with examples. Predictions derived from hydrological models are subject to many sources of error; these are discussed along with methods for error minimization or anticipation. Model error is generally quantified using an ensemble of forecasts meant to sample the range of predictive uncertainty. This ensemble can be used to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities if all sources of error are accounted for. To date, applications of ensemble methods in streamflow forecasting have typically focused on only one or two error sources. A challenge will be to develop ensemble streamflow forecasts that sample a wider range of predictive uncertainty.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Le présent article examine la pratique actuelle en modélisation d’écoulement fluvial, un domaine qui évolue depuis plus d'un siècle. Nous présentons un échantillon de la vaste gamme d'applications d’évaluation et de planification des modèles d’écoulement fluvial. La diversité dans l'utilisation de ces modèles est le reflet de la diversité dans la complexité des modèles, et nous décrivons à l'aide d'exemples les approches de modélisation qui peuvent être empiriques ou basées sur la physique ou encore localisées ou entièrement réparties. Plusieurs sources d'erreur peuvent affecter les prévisions issues des modèles hydrologiques; nous discutons de ces sources d'erreur de même que des méthodes de réduction ou d'anticipation des erreurs. L'erreur du modèle est généralement quantifiée à l'aide d'un ensemble de prévisions servant à échantillonner la grandeur de l'incertitude prévisionnelle. Cet ensemble peut servir à produire des prévisions probabilistes fiables des grandeurs hydrologiques si toutes les sources d'erreur sont prises en compte. Jusqu’à maintenant, les applications des méthodes d'ensemble à la prévision des écoulements fluviaux n'ont généralement tenu compte que d'une ou deux sources d'erreur. Ce sera un défi de mettre au point des prévisions d'ensemble d’écoulement fluvial qui échantillonnent un plus large éventail d'incertitude prévisionnelle.     

FIRST RESULTS FROM VIRGO,THE EXPERIMENT FOR HELIOSEISMOLOGY AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE MONITORING ON SOHO

First results from the VIRGO experiment (Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations) on the ESA/NASA Mission SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) are reported. The observations started mid-January 1996 for the radiometers and sunphotometers and near the end of March for the luminosity oscillation imager. The performance of all the instruments is very good, and the time series of the first 4–6 months are evaluated in terms of solar irradiance variability, solar background noise characteristics and p-mode oscillations. The solar irradiance is modulated by the passage of active regions across the disk, but not all of the modulation is straightforwardly explained in terms of sunspot flux blocking and facular enhancement. Helioseismic inversions of the observed p-mode frequencies are more-or-less in agreement with the latest standard solar models. The comparison of VIRGO results with earlier ones shows evidence that magnetic activity plays a significant role in the dynamics of the oscillations beyond its modulation of the resonant frequencies. Moreover, by comparing the amplitudes of different components ofp -mode multiplets, each of which are influenced differently by spatial inhomogeneity, we have found that activity enhances excitation.     

Radio Observations of Ions in Comet Hale-Bopp

We present radio observations of HCO⁺, H₃O⁺ and CO⁺ in Hale-Bopp. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.