Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name     

Regularized tomographic inversion with geological constraints

Reflection tomography is the industry standard tool for velocity model building, but it is also an ill‐posed inverse problem as its solution is not unique. The usual way to obtain an acceptable result is to regularize tomography by feeding the inversion with some a priori information. The simplest regularization forces the solution to be smooth, implicitly assuming that seismic velocity exhibits some degree of spatial correlation. However, velocity is a rock property; thus, the geometry and structure of rock formations should drive correlation in velocity depth models. This observation calls for constraints driven by geological models. In this work, we present a set of structural constraints that feed reflection tomography with geometrical information. These constraints impose the desired characteristics (flatness, shape, position, etc.) on imaged reflectors but act on the velocity update. Failure to respect the constraints indicates either velocity inaccuracies or wrong assumptions concerning the constraints. Reflection tomography with structural constraints is a flexible framework that can be specialized in order to achieve different goals: among others, to flatten the base of salt bodies or detachment surfaces, to recover the horizontalness of oil–water contacts, or to impose the co‐location of the same imaged horizon between PP and PS images. The straightforward application of structural constraints is that of regularizing tomography through geological information, particularly at the latest stages of the depth imaging workflow, when the depth migration structural setting reached a consistent geological interpretation. Structural constraints are also useful in minimizing the well‐to‐seismic mis‐ties. Moreover, they can be used as a tool to check the consistency of interpreters' hypothesis with seismic data. Indeed, inversion with structural constraints will preserve image focusing only if the interpreters' insights are consistent with the data. Results from synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of reflection tomography with structural constraints.     

Diffuse CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> degassing at Vesuvio,Italy

At Vesuvio, a significant fraction of the rising hydrothermal–volcanic fluids is subjected to a condensation and separation process producing a CO₂–rich gas phase, mainly expulsed through soil diffuse degassing from well defined areas called diffuse degassing structures (DDS), and a liquid phase that flows towards the outer part of the volcanic cone. A large amount of thermal energy is associated with the steam condensation process and subsequent cooling of the liquid phase. The total amount of volcanic–hydrothermal CO₂ discharged through diffuse degassing has been computed through a sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) approach based on several hundred accumulation chamber measurements and, at the time of the survey, amounted to 151 t d^–1. The steam associated with the CO₂ output, computed assuming that the original H₂O/CO₂ ratio of hydrothermal fluids is preserved in fumarolic effluents, is 553 t d^–1, and the energy produced by the steam condensation and cooling of the liquid phase is 1.47×10¹² J d^–1 (17 MW). The location of the CO₂ and temperature anomalies show that most of the gas is discharged from the inner part of the crater and suggests that crater morphology and local stratigraphy exert strong control on CO₂ degassing and subsurface steam condensation. The amounts of gas and energy released by Vesuvio are comparable to those released by other volcanic degassing areas of the world and their estimates, through periodic surveys of soil CO₂ flux, can constitute a useful tool to monitor volcanic activity.Editorial responsibility: H. Shinohara     

Recent developments of the Middle East catalog

This article summarizes a recent study in the framework of the Global Earth model (GEM) and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) project to establish the new catalog of seismicity for the Middle East, using all historical (pre-1900), early and modern instrumental events up to 2006. According to different seismicity, which depends on geophysical, geological, tectonic, and seismicity data, this region is subdivided to nine subregions, consisting of Alborz–Azerbaijan, Afghanistan–Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Caucasus, Central Iran, Kopeh–Dagh, Makran, Zagros, and Turkey (Eastern Anatolia; after 30° E). After omitting the duplicate events, aftershocks, and foreshocks by using the Gruenthal method, and uniform all magnitude to Mw scale, 28,244 main events remain for the new catalog of Middle East from 1250 B.C. through 2006. The magnitude of completeness (Mc) was determined as 4.9 for five out of nine subregions, where the least values of Mc were found to be 4.2. The threshold of Mc is around 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, and 4.0, for the time after 1950, 1963, 1975, and 2000, respectively. The average of teleseismic depths in all regions is less than 15 km. Totally, majority of depth for Kopeh–Dagh and Central Iran, Zagros, and Alborz–Azerbaijan, approximately, is 15, 13, and 11 km and for Afghanistan–Pakistan, Caucasus, Makran, Turkey (after 30° E), and Saudi Arabia is about 9 km.     

The Calabrian Stage redefined

The name Calabrian was introduced in the geological literature by the French stratigrapher Maurice Gignoux in 1910, and later described in his important monograph （633 pages） ＂Les formations marines pliocknes et quaternaires de l＇ltalie du sud et de la Sicile ＂published in 1913. Detailed data were provided on several sections （Santa Maria di Catanzaro, Caraffa, Monasterace, Palermo） and on their fossil content. The Calabrian Stage has commonly been used for over fifty years as the oldest subdivision of the Qua- ternary, notably in the time scales of Berggren ＆ van Cou- vering （1974） and Haq ＆ Eysinga （1987）. However, after the GSSP for the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary （P/P） was approved by INQUA in 1982 and ratified by lUGS in 1984 at the Vrica section of Calabria, there was a decline in the usage of the stage name, and an increasing tendency by many Quaternary workers to question the boundary stratotype. This was because there was increasing evidence that it did not correspond to the beginning of the ＂ice age＂. In doing so, they were not complying with the recommendations presented at the 18th International Geological Congress （IGC） in London, 1948 （Oakley, 1950）.     

On the optimal operation of groundwater basins: A calculus of variations approach

An ordinary differential equation for the groundwater allocation problem is derived by variational techniques and solved by specifying either the length of a mining period, or the total volume to be mined. Specifying either of these uniquely determines the other in terms of the economic parameters entering through the benefit function. An infinite mining period sets an upper limit to the total volume to be optimally extracted, and provides for the greatest economic benefit. As the mining period is shortened, the one-time exploitable volume is reduced. Although most of the calculations have been carried out for a quadratic benefit function, the detected competition between marginal productivity and the rate of interest insofar as they influence the optimal storage volume and its allocation through use rates appears to be valid in general.     

Rate of soil erosion processes on vineyards in central Piedmont (NW Italy)

The ‘Tertiary Basin of Piedmont’ is a hilly region, mainly composed of marine sediments, such as marls, silts and sands. The slopes, largely devoted to grape production, are usually kept bare of vegetation and are thus prone to soil erosion processes. For two years we have measured soil loss in relation to rainfall on experimental plots located in vineyards. In all the plots considered erosion started with low rainfall intensities (0·07 mm/min), and above 0·4 mm/min the amount of soil loss dramatically increased (to over 1800 g/m in one event). Most of the erosion occurs during summer rainstorms, but the behaviour of the soil under erosive rainfalls is very different from one site to another, depending only in part upon the various rainfall rates, soil and geometrical characteristics of the plots. It can be seen that soil loss varies from nearly negligible values (20 g/m/yr) to unacceptably high levels (to over 4·7 kg/m/yr), according to the different types of land cultivation. Deep ploughing and heavy herbicide treatment give rise to accelerated erosion processes leading to soil losses much higher than in other vineyard plots in Europe.     

Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis

Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading \(\dot{\tau }\) = {10⁻⁴, 10⁻³, 10⁻²} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities μ _Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.