Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century

Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L _max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L _max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.     

Yield Forecasting of Spring Maize Using Remote Sensing and Crop Modeling in Faisalabad-Punjab Pakistan

Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha^?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha^?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R² of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool.     

Comparison of Vegetation Indices from Two Ground Based Sensors

The best and commonly used ground-based sensor to monitor crop growth, ASD FieldSpecPro Spectroradiometer (Analytical Spectral Devices, Boulder, CO, USA) is a passive sensor, which can be used under adequate light condition. However, now-a-days active sensors such as GreenSeeker? (GS) handheld crop response (Trimble Agriculture division, USA) are used for monitoring crop growth and are flexible in terms of timeliness and illumination conditions besides being cheaper than the ASD. Before its wide use, the suitability and accuracy of GS should be assessed by comparing the NDVI measured by this instrument with that by ASD, under diverse wheat growing conditions of India. Keeping this in view, the present experiment was undertaken with the following objectives: (1) to find out the temporal variation of NDVI measured both by ASD and GS treatments, (2) to find out relationship between the NDVI measured through ASD and GS and, (3) to evaluate the suitability of GS for NDVI measurements. It was observed that the numerical value of NDVI as measured by GS was always significantly (P < 0.05) lower than that measured by ASD for all the experiments under study. The NDVI-ASD and NDVI-GS were significantly positively correlated (P < 0.01) with the correlation coefficients being +0.94, +0.88 and +0.87 for irrigation and nitrogen experiment, irrigation and cultivars experiment, and tillage, residue and nitrogen experiments, respectively. Further, the regression equation developed between the NDVI-ASD and NDVI-GS: [NDVI-GS = 1.070 × (NDVI-ASD ? 0.292] can be successfully used to compute the NDVI of ASD from that computed by GS.     

Comparison between geodetic and oceanographic approaches to estimate mean dynamic topography for vertical datum unification: evaluation at Australian tide gauges

The direct method of vertical datum unification requires estimates of the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) at tide gauges, which can be sourced from either geodetic or oceanographic approaches. To assess the suitability of different types of MDT for this purpose, we evaluate 13 physics-based numerical ocean models and six MDTs computed from observed geodetic and/or ocean data at 32 tide gauges around the Australian coast. We focus on the viability of numerical ocean models for vertical datum unification, classifying the 13 ocean models used as either independent (do not contain assimilated geodetic data) or non-independent (do contain assimilated geodetic data). We find that the independent and non-independent ocean models deliver similar results. Maximum differences among ocean models and geodetic MDTs reach >150 mm at several Australian tide gauges and are considered anomalous at the 99% confidence level. These differences appear to be of geodetic origin, but without additional independent information, or formal error estimates for each model, some of these errors remain inseparable. Our results imply that some ocean models have standard deviations of differences with other MDTs (using geodetic and/or ocean observations) at Australian tide gauges, and with levelling between some Australian tide gauges, of \({\sim }\pm 50\,\hbox {mm}\). This indicates that they should be considered as an alternative to geodetic MDTs for the direct unification of vertical datums. They can also be used as diagnostics for errors in geodetic MDT in coastal zones, but the inseparability problem remains, where the error cannot be discriminated between the geoid model or altimeter-derived mean sea surface.     

Estimation of Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide and Air-Sea Fluxes in Hooghly Estuary Based on In Situ and Satellite Observations

An empirical model is developed and used with remotely sensed predictors: sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), to compute surface water partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO_2w) and air-sea fluxes of CO₂ in the Hooghly estuary and its adjacent coastal oceans. In situ observations used here were based on measurements carried out in this region during winter and summer periods in 2008. The estimated pCO_2w compares well with the in situ observations at root mean square error ±18 μatm. In winter, estimated pCO_2w ranges between 320 and 500 μatm with large values (>400 μatm) on the south-western and south-eastern flanks of the coastal domain and lower values (340–375 μatm) on the main-channel. In summer, it remained spatially uniform at 450 μatm. Extrapolation of the results over the study region based on the Moderate Imaging Specroradiometer (MODIS) measured SST and Chl-a suggests that the region is a strong source of atmospheric CO₂ during the summer with net release of 0.095 Tg C year^?1 (equivalent to mean flux of 90 molC m^?2 year^?1) and is a weak source during the winter with net release of 0.006 Tg C yr^?1 (0.5 molC m^?2 year^?1) from the geographical extent of 6000 Km² area.     

Assessment of Kalpana-1 Rainfall Product over Indian Meteorological Sub-Divisions During the Summer Monsoon Season

In this paper, Kalpana-1 derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates are compared with two multisatellite rainfall products namely, TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface rain gauge (SRG)-based rainfall at meteorological sub-divisional scale over India. The performance of the summer monsoon rainfall of 2013 over Indian meteorological sub-divisions is assessed at different temporal scales. Comparison of daily accumulated rainfall over India from IMSRA shows a linear correlation of 0.72 with TMPA-3B42 and 0.70 with GSMaP estimates. IMSRA is capable to pick up daily rainfall variability over the monsoon trough region as compared to TMPA-3B42 and GSMaP products, but underestimates moderate to heavy rainfall events. Satellite-derived rainfall maps at meteorological sub-divisional scales are in reasonably good agreement with IMD-SRG based rainfall maps with some exceptions. However, IMSRA performs better than GSMaP product at meteorological sub-divisional scale and comparable with TMPA data. All the satellite-derived rainfall products underestimate orographic rainfall along the west coast, the Himalayan foothills and over the northeast India and overestimate rainfall over the southeast peninsular India. Overall results suggest that IMSRA estimates have potential for monsoon rainfall monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub-divisions and can be used for various hydro-meteorological applications.