Power-Law Testing for Fault Attributes Distributions

This paper is devoted to statistical analysis of faults’ attributes. The distributions of lengths, widths of damage zones, displacements and thicknesses of fault cores are studied. Truncated power-law (TPL) is considered in comparison with commonly used simple power-law (PL) (or Pareto) distribution. The maximal likelihood and the confidence interval of the exponent for both PL and TPL are estimated by appropriate statistical methods. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test and the likelihood ratio test with alternative non-nested hypothesis for exponential distribution are used to verify the statistical approximation. Furthermore, the advantage of TPL is proved by Bayesian information criterion. Our results suggest that a TPL is more suitable for describing fault attributes, and that its condition is satisfied for a wide range of fault scales. We propose that using truncated power laws in general might eliminate or relax the bias related to sampling strategy and the resolution of measurements (such as censoring, truncation, and cut effect) and; therefore, the most reliable range of data can be considered for the statistical approximation of fault attributes.     

Were Late Cretaceous extinctions of gastropods selective by generic longevity?

Many gastropod taxa went extinct during the Late Cretaceous.The stratigraphic ranges of 268 genera permit to establish the longevity of extinction victims for each stage of this epoch."Young" taxa (originated within 3 epochs before the extinction) prevailed among victims of the extinctions in all stages.The proportion of "old" taxa(originated before the Cretaceous) that went extinct was the highest in the Cenomanian,and it was the lowest in the Coniacian and the Maastrichtian.It appears that the end-Cretaceous mass extinction affected chiefly "young" taxa.However,the comparison with the earlier time intervals suggests that this pattern of selectivity by generic longevity was not specific for the noted catastrophe,but,in contrast,it was typical for the entire Late Cretaceous.The latest Cenomanian environmental perturbation(OAE2) caused a stronger extinction of "old" taxa,and thus,this biotic crisis was less selective by generic longevity.This hypothesis,however,is not proven by the statistical test.     

Mode enslavement in a two-layer stellar dynamo

We consider a conventional stellar  α²ω  -dynamo with dynamo generators localized in two spherical shells separated by a passive layer. The signs of the α-effect as well as rotational shear in the dynamo active layers can be chosen to give dynamo waves that propagate in opposite directions (poleward and equatorward) if the layers are considered separately in the framework of the Parker migratory dynamo. In a sequence of numerical experiments we show that the variety of dynamo-generated magnetic configurations in the system under discussion is quite rich. We identify the possibility of almost independent dynamo waves existing in the two layers as well as enslavement of one layer by the other, and of activity waves generated by a joint action of the two layers. We suggest some qualitative explanations of the behaviour and discuss also the limited nature of these explanations. This variety of phenomena suggests previously underexploited freedoms to understand how predictions of dynamo theory may accommodate the observed solar and stellar activity phenomenology.     

Solar Activity Record from Archeomagnetic Data

Each of the available solar activity (SA) proxy data (historical notes, radio nuclides ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be production) are contaminated by their specific noise factors. So, any additional proxy with its independent noise factors will essentially increase the accuracy of composite SA restorations. It is proposed here that archaeomagnetic measurements 95% confidence interval (α₉₅) may serve as new proxy for the SA estimation in the past. This proxy is compared with other available proxies during the years 1500–2000.     

A multiscale method for distributed parameter estimation with application to reservoir history matching

A method for multiscale parameter estimation with application to reservoir history matching is presented. Starting from a given fine-scale model, coarser models are generated using a global upscaling technique where the coarse models are tuned to match the solution of the fine model. Conditioning to dynamic data is done by history-matching the coarse model. Using consistently the same resolution both for the forward and inverse problems, this model is successively refined using a combination of downscaling and history matching until model-matching dynamic data are obtained at the finest scale. Large-scale corrections are obtained using fast models, which, combined with a downscaling procedure, provide a better initial model for the final adjustment on the fine scale. The result is thus a series of models with different resolution, all matching history as good as possible with this grid. Numerical examples show that this method may significantly reduce the computational effort and/or improve the quality of the solution when achieving a fine-scale match as compared to history-matching directly on the fine scale.     

Physical mechanisms of submesoscale eddies generation: evidences from laboratory modeling and satellite data in the Black Sea

Ocean Dynamics - The observed evidence of the implementation of three different mechanisms of the submesoscale eddies generation in the Black Sea previously studied by the field research and...     

Updating default depths in the ISC bulletin

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) publishes the definitive global bulletin of earthquake locations. In the ISC bulletin, we aim to obtain a free depth, but often this is not possible. Subsequently, the first option is to obtain a depth derived from depth phases. If depth phases are not available, we then use the reported depth from a reputable local agency. Finally, as a last resort, we set a default depth.In the past, common depths of 10, 33, or multiples of 50 km have been assigned. Assigning a more meaningful default depth, specific to a seismic region will increase the consistency of earthquake locations within the ISC bulletin and allow the ISC to publish better positions and magnitude estimates. It will also improve the association of reported secondary arrivals to corresponding seismic events.We aim to produce a global set of default depths, based on a typical depth for each area, from well-constrained events in the ISC bulletin or where depth could be constrained using a consistent set of depth phase arrivals provided by a number of different reporters.In certain areas, we must resort to using other assumptions. For these cases, we use a global crustal model (Crust2.0) to set default depths to half the thickness of the crust.     

The benefits of a high-resolution analysis of transit accessibility

Accessibility is an important consideration in sustainable mobility policies, particularly for transit users. Measures suggested in the literature are based on coarse aggregate spatial resolution of traffic analysis zones that is sufficient for managing car travels only. To reflect a human door-to-door travel, transit accessibility demands an explicit view of the location of origin, transit stops and destination, as well as of the temporal fit between transit lines timetable and traveler’s needs. We thus estimate transit accessibility based on mode-specific travel times and corresponding paths, including walking and waiting, at the resolution of individual buildings and stops. Car accessibility is estimated at a high resolution too. A novel representation of transit network as a graph is proposed. This representation includes all modal components of a transit travel – walking, waiting at a stop, transit ride, transfers between lines, thus enabling unified view of a travel, regardless of mode. The use of modern high-performance graph database allows construction of high-resolution accessibility maps for an entire metropolitan area with its 100–200 K buildings. The application is tested and applied in a case study involving the evaluation of the 2011 bus line reform in the city of Tel Aviv. Specifically, we demonstrate that while the reform increased the average accessibility for the entire city the increase was not uniform with different areas of the city experiencing different absolute accessibility by transit and relative accessibility in comparison to car travel. The bus reform did in fact benefit travelers that experienced low relative accessibility, but the benefits are mainly accruing to longer trips. Our approach and computational methods can be employed for directly investigating the impacts of transportation infrastructure investments.     

Evaluating Global Warming Potentials with historical temperature

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are evaluated with historical temperature by applying them to convert historical CH₄ and N₂O emissions to equivalent CO₂ emissions. Our GWP analysis is based on an inverse estimation using the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate Model (ACC2). We find that, for both CH₄ and N₂O, indices higher than the Kyoto GWPs (100-year time horizon) would reproduce better the historical temperature. The CH₄ GWP provides a best fit to the historical temperature when it is calculated with a time horizon of 44 years. However, the N₂O GWP does not approximate well the historical temperature with any time horizon. We introduce a new exchange metric, TEMperature Proxy index (TEMP), that is defined so that it provides a best fit to the temperature projection of a given period. By comparing GWPs and TEMPs, we find that the inability of the N₂O GWP to reproduce the historical temperature is caused by the GWP calculation methodology in IPCC using simplifying assumptions for the background system dynamics and uncertain parameter estimations. Furthermore, our TEMP calculations demonstrate that indices have to be progressively updated upon the acquisition of new measurements and/or the advancement of our understanding of Earth system processes.     

The tidal and wind induced hydrodynamics of the composite system Adriatic Sea/Lagoon of Venice

A shallow water hydrostatic 2D hydrodynamic numerical model, based on the boundary conforming coordinate system, was used to simulate aspects of both general and small scale oceanic features occurring in the composite system constituted by the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice (Italy), under the influence of tide and realistic atmospheric forcing. Due to a specific technique for the treatment of movable lateral boundaries, the model is able to simulate efficiently dry up and flooding processes within the lagoon. Firstly, a model calibration was performed by comparing the results of the model, forced using tides and ECMWF atmospheric pressure and wind fields, with observations collected for a set of 33 mareographic stations uniformly distributed in the Adriatic Sea and in the Lagoon of Venice. A second numerical experiment was then carried out by considering only the tidal forcing. Through a comparison between the results obtained in the two experiments it was possible to assess the reliability of the estimated parameter through the composite forcing. Model results were then verified by comparing simulated amplitude and phase of each tidal constituent as well as tidal velocities simulated at the inlets of the lagoon and in the Northern Adriatic Sea with the corresponding observed values. The model accurately reproduces the observed harmonics: mean amplitude differences rarely exceed 1 cm, while phase errors are commonly confined below 15°. Semidiurnal and diurnal currents were correctly reproduced in the northern basin and a good agreement was obtained with measurements carried out at the lagoon inlets. On this basis, the outcomes of the hydrodynamic model were analyzed in order to investigate: (i) small-scale coastal circulation features observed at the interface between the adjoining basins, which consist often of vortical dipoles connected with the tidal flow of Adriatic water entering and leaving the Lagoon of Venice and with along-shore current fields connected with specific wind patterns; (ii) residual oscillations, which are often connected to meteorological forcing over the basin. In particular, it emerges that small-scale vortical features generated near the lagoon inlet can be efficiently transported toward the open sea, thus contributing to the water exchange between the two marine regions, and a realistic representation of observed residual oscillations in the area would require a very detailed knowledge of atmospheric as well as remote oceanic forcing.