An overview of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relation to monsoon and mid-latitude circulation

In the past decade there has been extensive research into tropical intraseasonal variability, one of the major com-ponents of the low frequency variability of the general atmospheric circulation. This paper briefly reviews the state-of-the-art in this research area: the nature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, its relation to monsoonal and extratropical circulations, and the current theoretical understandings.     

巴士系构造的地震危险性

在北东东向分布的华南地震带内,从巴士海峡到闽粤赣三省交界有呈北西向分布的地震密集带。它与北西向分布的巴士系断裂构造相一致。此组构造与华南地区其他北西向构造的重要区别在于,它起自菲律宾海板块的边缘,其动力主要来自该板块向欧亚板块不均匀的推挤作用。巴士系构造是华南地区新构造活动性最强的构造,沿着此组断裂曾有过大量强烈的地震活(?),包括6级、7级和8级地震。在未来10年内,此带的强震活动有逼近粤东、闽南沿海地区的趋势。     

THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN EFFICACY OF GEOELECTRICAL RESISTIVITY METHOD IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND SITE CONDITION

INTRODUCTION In the past two decades, field observation, laboratory experiments, and the theoretical studies in the study on earthquake prediction have been carried out in several countries, by using ρ_s method, and valuable results have been achieved. The first geoelectrical resistivity (ρ_s) observatory for earthquake forecasting established at     

Quartz-Ferberite Oxygen Isotope Geothermometer and Its Geological Applications

Experiments for oxygen isotope exchange between ferberite and water were carried out and the followingequation on oxygen isotope fractionation between ferberite and water against temperature was obtained:Combining this equation with the equation of Clayton et al. (1972) on oxygen isotope fractionation be-tween quartz and water, an equation on oxygen isotope fractionation between quartz and ferberite was ob-tained:The Bigeleison-Mayer function method was used to calculate the oxygen isotope fractionation betweenquartz and ferberite. The theoretical curve obtained agrees with the experimental calibration results quite wellin the temperature range of study.The above calibrated equation has been used in 5 world famous tungsten deposits to determine their tem-peratures of formation. The results show that the temperature range for an idividual deposit determined by thisgeothermometer agrees with those obtained from fluid inclusion determination and other isotopegeothermometers.     

A Statistical Model for Investigating Climatic Trend Turning Points

A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method.     

文峪金矿元素地球化学统计分析及深部预测研究

文峪金矿是著名的小秦岭金矿成矿带中的重要矿床，位于河南省与陕西省交界处，本文通过系统的地球化学元素样品分析，采用数学地质统计分析方法，确定了成矿元素间的亲缘关系的组合规律，建立了该矿床成矿元素分带序列模型，指出文峪金矿深部具有良好的找矿远景。     

石咀山市地貌与反应谱间的关系

本文在实地调查的基础上,将宁夏石咀山市按地貌单元分为三个区。对每个地貌单元场地土的动力特性进行了试验研究。根据一维地震反应计算模型,计算求得了各个地貌单元的平均反应谱,讨论了不同类型的地貌单元与其对应的反应谱之间的关系,最后给出了相应的设计反应谱。     

矿震及其前兆初探

本文通过对山东霜矿的矿震（冲击地压）发生条件、时空分布与某些征兆的调查研究，提出了利用矿震及其前兆观测探索天然地震前兆与预报方法的初步设想。     

基于NWC甚低频信号的日出效应的观测与分析

频率在3~30 kHz的甚低频（VLF,Very Low Frequency）波具有较小的传播损耗和较高的趋肤深度,可以在地球-低电离层波导中实现长距离传输,广泛应用于航海导航、对潜通信等领域,且在电离层遥测方面具有十分重要的意义.基于武汉大学自主研发的VLF接收机在武汉接收的NWC（North West Cape）台站信号,本文通过分析2018年4月23日—2020年7月22日的观测数据研究了日出期间NWC信号的幅度响应及其特点和规律.结果表明NWC信号日出期间的幅度响应主要包括两种极小值结构：2个幅度极小值（SR1、SR2）的Type I结构和3个幅度极小值（SR1、SR2、SR3）的Type II结构.在以SR1出现时间为时间零点进行时序叠加分析后发现,Type I结构比Type II具有更强的规律性和稳定性.在Type I结构下,SR2出现时间的波动范围、平均值、标准差分别为43~65 min、54.2 min、4.4 min,而在Type II结构下,SR2和SR3出现时间的波动范围分别为48~93 min、80~120 min,平均值分别为64.7 min、96.4 min,标准差分别为10.2 min、11.7 min.在27个月的观测期内,3—7月份Type I结构的出现概率100%,未出现Type II结构,而在1—2月和8—12月Type I结构出现的概率明显下降,最低降至1月份的20.7%,而Type II在1月、2月、11月的出现概率均高于70%.按春秋分交替变化（周期1和周期2）的统计结果,在周期1内Type I和Type II结构出现的概率分别为91.5%、8.5%,而在周期2内Type I结构出现的概率降至41.9%,Type II结构出现概率则升至58.1%,这表示观测期间内Type II结构主要出现在秋冬季,春夏季发生概率较低.     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。