精密单点定位估计GPS卫星的P1-C1码偏差及稳定性分析

给出了利用精密单点定位（PPP）技术估计GPS卫星P1-C1码偏差的数学模型,并以BRUS、GODE、SHAO和NIST四个跟踪站2010年10月份一个月的观测数据为例,采用PPP方法计算了所有GPS卫星的P1-C1码偏差,并与欧洲定轨中心提供的P1-C1码偏差进行了比较,结果表明：四个站估计的P1-C1码偏差精度均可达到几个厘米。一个月的计算结果表明：卫星的P1-C1码偏差在一个月内变化平缓。     

How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?

The retrospective forecast skill of three coupled climate models (NCEP CFS, GFDL CM2.1, and CAWCR POAMA 1.5) and their multi-model ensemble (MME) is evaluated, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer upper-tropospheric circulation along with surface temperature and precipitation for the 25-year period of 1981–2005. The seasonal prediction skill for the NH 200-hPa geopotential height basically comes from the coupled models’ ability in predicting the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of interannual variability, because the models cannot replicate the residual higher modes. The first two leading EOF modes of the summer 200-hPa circulation account for about 84% (35.4%) of the total variability over the NH tropics (extratropics) and offer a hint of realizable potential predictability. The MME is able to predict both spatial and temporal characteristics of the first EOF mode (EOF1) even at a 5-month lead (January initial condition) with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) skill of 0.96 and a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.62. This long-lead predictability of the EOF1 comes mainly from the prolonged impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the EOF1 tends to occur during the summer after the mature phase of ENSO. The second EOF mode (EOF2), on the other hand, is related to the developing ENSO and also the interdecadal variability of the sea surface temperature over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. The MME also captures the EOF2 at a 5-month lead with a PCC skill of 0.87 and a TCC skill of 0.67, but these skills are mainly obtained from the zonally symmetric component of the EOF2, not the prominent wavelike structure, the so-called circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. In both observation and the 1-month lead MME prediction, the first two leading modes are accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of the NH extratropics. The MME’s success in predicting the EOF1 (EOF2) is likely to lead to a better prediction of JJA precipitation anomalies over East Asia and the North Pacific (central and southern Europe and western North America).     

北京一次冬季回流暴雪天气过程的数值分析

回流天气是华北地区冬、春、秋季节产生降雨（雪）的主要天气类型,预报员常常因对回流天气系统结构特征认识不足和诊断失误而导致预报的失败,是降雨（雪）预报的难点和重点。利用北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化中尺度数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）对2010年1月2—3日一次典型的回流暴雪天气过程进行模拟,分析数值模式的模拟能力,研究各层主要影响系统结构特征及形成暴雪的关键性条件,探讨典型回流暴雪天气过程的形成机理。主要结论为：数值模式对此次暴雪过程的近地面回流冷空气、中低层低值系统及变化特征、主要降雪时段和降雪量模拟效果较好,对降雪落区的模拟存在一定偏差。低层回流偏东风遇到地形后引起垂直运动主要在低层800 hPa以下,所产生的降雪量不大,而其与上游850～700 hPa低涡系统发展东移其前部的上升运动汇合所形成的大范围、深厚、强烈的上升运动是产生明显降雪的关键性条件。上游低涡系统前部西南暖湿气流相对应的大湿度区移近是产生较强降雪的重要条件。持续的低层回流冷空气湿度较大,对于低层大气起到水汽输送的作用。回流冷空气使低层大气维持长时间的水汽输送并与其上层东移的大湿度区相结合,增加湿层厚度,有利于降雪持续而形成较强降雪。降雪开始时间和降雪强度的变化与对流层中下转偏南风的时间和偏南风风速增大有关。     

地震分布非均匀性指标Kcv值及其在亚洲大地震预测中的应用研究

理论研究和实际预测表明地震空间分布非均匀性指标Cv值是一种有效的预测指标.但目前使用的Cv值在同一信度水平下,其置信区间大小与空间分布的事件样本数大小有关,不便于结果的分析比较.本文在Cv值基础上定义了一个新的预测指标Kcv,并基于强震时空概率增益预测模型及其单项预测方法预测效能检验的方法,依据亚洲地震重点研究区近20...     

结合波形互相关的双差定位方法在2008年汶川地震余震序列中的应用

选取了汶川地震主震后的2008年5月12日——2009年8月31日, 震级为3.0le;MSle;5.0的余震4240次．利用波形互相关方法得到其P波到时,用双差定位方法对其进行定位,最终得到了2441次重新定位的结果．统计定位误差（两倍标准偏差）在E-W方向为0.4 km,N-S方向为0.4 km,垂直方向为0.7 km．定位结果表明,汶川地震的余震深度集中在10——20 km,震中分布与龙门山中央断裂带的走向关系密切．沿龙门山断裂的地震分布具有明显的分段性,西南段呈水平带状分布,东北段接近垂直分布,且在北川附近存在深度突变．这与龙门山断裂的地震在西南段多表现为逆冲,东北段多表现为走滑的现象相吻合．在深度剖面上地震的空间分布存在分立的特征,通过对比前人在此地区浅层的地震剖面资料, 发现地震空间分布与已探知的浅部断层有较好的对应关系．      

Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas

In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.     

基于Hilbert-Huang变换的地震瞬时属性提取方法及应用(英文)

希尔伯特—黄变换(Hilbert-Huang transform,HHT)是一种新的适合非平稳和非线性信号的分析方法,由于地震信号一般呈现出非平稳与非线性特性,因此HHT非常适合地震信号的分析。本文首先介绍了HHT中关于经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)的实现过程,在此基础上分析了几种基于EMD获得本征模态函数(Intrinsic Mode Functions,IMF)来计算瞬时频率的算法,其中利用了两个采样间隔瞬时频率的平均来计算瞬时频率,较好地反映了地震信号频率成分随时间变化的特征。将该方法应用于四川东北部某地区海相碳酸盐岩地层三维地震叠后偏移数据处理,提取"三瞬"地震属性,与传统的希尔伯特变换提取的"三瞬"地震属性进行对比,结果表明基于HHT的"三瞬"地震属性结果具有更高的分辨率,IMF2的瞬时相位能够较好地刻画台地边缘生物礁相,IMF2的瞬时频率亦具有较好的分带性。将IMF2的"三瞬"地震属性与钻井等资料结合分析,能够更好地识别沉积相的分布。     

钢质大型浮顶油罐防雷设计与施工工艺研究

通过对钢质浮顶油罐雷电防护技术和施工工艺的研究,分析了钢质大型浮顶油罐的防雷技术措施;针对相关国家规范只有条文规定而无相应施工图集的问题,给出了相应的防雷施工工艺图,以供油库防雷设计和施工管理人员参考.     

青岛市气象局网络安全管理系统

网络安全是影响气象通信网络性能和功能的重要因素。从线路设备、安全设备和措施、安全管理制度3个方面结合青岛市气象局具体情况进行了网络安全系统建设的介绍,内容包括通信线路的冗余、核心设备的热备份、网络安全设备的应用和安全控制策略、用户和管理员安全管理规定,并详细介绍了防火墙配置、核心交换机热备、关键服务器的访问控制等关键技术的实现,最后根据网络安全建设经验对地市级气象局的网络安全建设提出了一些建议。     

基于GIS的雷电数据可视化地图组件设计与实现

雷电发生发展于地理空间,具有明显的时空特性,因此在地理信息平台的支持下进行各种雷电数据空间及其属性特征分析具有重要的意义。在ArcEngine的基础上,设计研发了雷电数据可视化地图组件（Thunder Map）,按照数据定义层、数据功能层以及地图UI层的3层逻辑结构,实现了各种雷电相关数据基于地理信息平台的可视化表达,并提供了相关数据管理与功能分析的操作接口,为基于地理空间信息的雷电数据处理提供可视化的功能组件支持。