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31.
Parametric uncertainty assessment of hydrological models: coupling UNEEC-P and a fuzzy general regression neural network 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Due to the complicated nature of environmental processes, consideration of uncertainty is an important part of environmental modelling. In this paper, a new variant of the machine learning-based method for residual estimation and parametric model uncertainty is presented. This method is based on the UNEEC-P (UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering – Parameter) method, but instead of multilayer perceptron uses a “fuzzified” version of the general regression neural network (GRNN). Two hydrological models are chosen and the proposed method is used to evaluate their parametric uncertainty. The approach can be classified as a hybrid uncertainty estimation method, and is compared to the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ordinary kriging with linear external drift (OKLED) methods. It is shown that, in terms of inherent complexity, measured by Akaike information criterion (AIC), the proposed fuzzy GRNN method has advantages over other techniques, while its accuracy is comparable. Statistical metrics on verification datasets demonstrate the capability and appropriate efficiency of the proposed method to estimate the uncertainty of environmental models. 相似文献
32.
Pierre Javelle Julie Demargne Dimitri Defrance Jean Pansu Patrick Arnaud 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1390-1402
AbstractThis article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km2 resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 相似文献
33.
Klaus-G. Hinzen Stephan Schreiber Claus Fleischer Sharon K. Reamer Isabel Wiosna 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):399-424
The causes of damage observed in archeological records or preserved monuments are often difficult to be determined unequivocally, particularly when the possibility of secondary earthquake damage exists. Such secondary damage has been previously proposed for the Roman Praetorium, the governor’s palace in the center of Cologne. Ongoing excavations since 2007 revealed additional damage. The existing ground that has been uncovered and documented extends the affected area to 175?×?180 m. We present a comprehensive virtual model of the excavation area based on 200 3D laserscans together with a systematic analysis of the damage patterns and an improved model of the terrain during Roman/Medieval times including geotechnical parameters of the subsurface. Five locations with different damage patterns, including a Roman sewer, the octagonal central part of the Praetorium, a section with strongly inclined massive walls, a 13 m deep deformed well, a collapsed hypocaust, and damages in the Medieval mikveh are analyzed in detail. We use site-specific synthetic strong ground motion seismograms to test the possibility of earthquake-induced ground failures as a cause for the observed damage. This subsurface model is also used to test the possibility of hydraulically-induced damages by seepage and erosion of fine-grained material from stray sand. Heavy rainstorms can induce a direct stream of surface water through the fine sand layers to the ground water table. Simulated ground motion for assumed worst-case earthquake scenarios do not provoke slope instability at the level necessary to explain the structural damages. 相似文献
34.
The effect of different structures configurations on the collision between adjacent planar RC building frames subjected to strong earthquakes is examined in this paper. Two 5‐storey and two 8‐storey frames, regular or with setbacks, are combined together to produce nine different pairs of adjacent RC structures. These pairs of buildings are subjected to six strong ground motions that are absolutely compatible with the design process. Various parameters are investigated such as maximum displacements, permanent displacements, members' ductility and internal forces and interstorey drift ratios. It is concluded that the effect of collision of adjacent frames seems to be unfavourable for most of the cases and, therefore, the structural pounding phenomenon is rather detrimental than beneficial. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
35.
Olivier Cuisinier Jean-Claude Auriol Tangi Le Borgne Dimitri Deneele 《Engineering Geology》2011,(3):187
Under a given compaction energy and procedure, it is known that maximum dry density of a soil is lowered due to lime addition. This modification of maximum dry density could alter the hydraulic conductivity of the soil. The main object of this study was to assess the impact of lime-stabilization on a silt soil microstructure and then on saturated hydraulic conductivity. An investigation at the microscopic level with mercury intrusion porosimetry showed that lime treatment induced the formation of a new small class, with a diameter lower than 3 × 103 Å in the compacted soil. This class is responsible for the difference in dry density between the treated and the untreated sample after compaction. It is shown that this small pores class was not altered by the compaction water content, the compaction procedure or the dry density. As in untreated soils, only the larger pores were modified by the compaction water content and the compaction procedure in the lime treated samples. The hydraulic conductivity appeared to be only related to the largest pores volume of the tested silt, regardless of lime treatment. Therefore, this study demonstrated that even if addition of lime resulted in a dramatic change of the maximum dry density of the tested silty soil, its effect on hydraulic conductivity is limited. 相似文献
36.
Mark J. Sier Wil Roebroeks Corrie C. Bakels Enrico Brühl Dimitri De Loecker Norbert Hesse Lutz Kindler Thomas Laurat Herman J. Mücher Kirsty E.H. Penkman Douwe J.J. van Hinsbergen 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(1):213-218
An interdisciplinary study of a small sedimentary basin at Neumark Nord 2 (NN2), Germany, has yielded a high-resolution record of the palaeomagnetic Blake Event, which we are able to place at the early part of the last interglacial pollen sequence documented from the same section. We use this data to calculate the duration of this stratigraphically important event at 3400 ± 350 yr. More importantly, the Neumark Nord 2 data enables precise terrestrial-marine correlation for the Eemian stage in central Europe. This shows a remarkably large time lag of ca. 5000 yr between the MIS 5e ‘peak’ in the marine record and the start of the last interglacial in this region. 相似文献
37.
Seunghee Han Joris Gieskes Anna Obraztsova Dimitri D. Deheyn Bradley M. Tebo 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011
Understanding the biogeochemical process of Hg is critical in the overall evaluation of the ecological impacts resulting from the reuse of Hg-contaminated dredged sediment. Sediment banks (V1 and V2) were constructed with freshly dredged sediments from a navigational channel in Venice Lagoon, Italy, with the goal of clarifying potential differences in the biogeochemistry of Hg between the reused dredged sediments and those from surrounding sites (SS1 and S2). Toward this purpose, Hg and monomethylmercury (MMHg) concentrations, and Hg methylation rates (MMRs) in the surface 2.5 cm sediments were monitored, along with ammonium, iron, sulfate and sulfide concentrations in the pore waters of banks and surrounding sites from November 2005 to February 2007. Pore water analyses indicate that the bank sediments are characterized by lower levels of sulfate and iron, and by higher levels of ammonium and sulfide compared to the surrounding sediments. With respect to Hg speciation, the fractions of MMHg in total Hg (%MMHg/Hg) and the MMRs were significantly lower in the bank V1 compared to those in the reference site SS1, whereas the %MMHg/Hg and the MMRs were similar between V2 and S2. A negative correlation is found between the logarithm of the particle-water partition coefficient of Hg and the MMR, indicating that the reduced MMRs in V1 are caused by the limited concentrations of dissolved Hg. Organic matter appears to play a key role in the control of MMR via the control of Hg solubility. 相似文献
38.
The increasing number and variety of extrasolar planets illustrates the importance of characterizing planetary perturbations. Planetary orbits are typically described by physically intuitive orbital elements. Here, we explicitly express the equations of motion of the unaveraged perturbed two-body problem in terms of planetary orbital elements by using a generalized form of Gauss’ equations. We consider a varied set of position and velocity-dependent perturbations, and also derive relevant specific cases of the equations: when they are averaged over fast variables (the “adiabatic” approximation), and in the prograde and retrograde planar cases. In each instance, we delineate the properties of the equations. As brief demonstrations of potential applications, we consider the effect of Galactic tides. We measure the effect on the widest-known exoplanet orbit, Sedna-like objects, and distant scattered disk objects, particularly with regard to where the adiabatic approximation breaks down. The Mathematica code which can help derive the equations of motion for a user-defined perturbation is freely available upon request. 相似文献
39.
Deposition and early alteration of evaporites 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
40.