Learning from data for wind-wave forecasting

Along with existing numerical process models describing the wind-wave interaction, the relatively recent development in the area of machine learning make the so-called data-driven models more and more popular. This paper presents a number of data-driven models for wind-wave process at the Caspian Sea. The problem associated with these models is to forecast significant wave heights for several hours ahead using buoy measurements. Models are based on artificial neural network (ANN) and instance-based learning (IBL) .To capture the wind-wave relationship at measurement sites, these models use the existing past time data describing the phenomenon in question. Three feed-forward ANN models have been built for time horizon of 1, 3 and 6 h with different inputs. The relevant inputs are selected by analyzing the average mutual information (AMI). The inputs consist of priori knowledge of wind and significant wave height. The other six models are based on IBL method for the same forecast horizons. Weighted k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) and locally weighted regression (LWR) with Gaussian kernel were used. In IBL-based models, forecast is made directly by combining instances from the training data that are close (in the input space) to the new incoming input vector. These methods are applied to two sets of data at the Caspian Sea. Experiments show that the ANNs yield slightly better agreement with the measured data than IBL. ANNs can also predict extreme wave conditions better than the other existing methods.     

Quantifying land degradation in the Zoige Basin,NE Tibetan Plateau using satellite remote sensing data

Considerable efforts have been dedicated to desertification research in the arid and semi-arid drylands of central Asia. However, there are few quantitative studies in conjunction with proper qualitative evaluation concerning land degradation and aeolian activity in the alpine realm. In this study, spectral information from two Landsat-5 TM scenes (04.08.1994 and 28.07.2009, respectively) was combined with reference information obtained in the field to run supervised classifications of eight landscape types for both time steps. Subsequently, the temporal and spatial patterns of the alpine wetlands/grasslands evolutions in the Zoige Basin were quantified and assessed based on these two classification maps. The most conspicuous change is the sharp increase of ~627 km² degraded meadow. Concerning other land-covers, shallow wetland increases ~107 km² and aeolian sediments (mobile dunes and sand sheets) have an increase of ~30 km². Considering the deterioration, an obvious decrease of ~440 km² degraded wetland can be observed. Likewise, decrease of deep wetland (~78 km²), humid meadow (~80 km²) and undisturbed meadow (~88 km²) were determined. These entire evolution matrixes undoubtedly hint a deteriorating tendency of the Zoige Basin ecosystem, which is characterized by significantly declined proportion of intact wetlands, meadow, rangeland and a considerable increase of degraded meadow and larger areas of mobile dunes. In particular, not only temporal alteration of the land-cover categories, the spatial and topographical characteristics of the land degradation also deserves more attention. In the alpine rangelands, the higher terraces of the river channels along with their slopes are more liable to the degradation and desertification. This tendency has significantly impeded the nomadic and agriculture activities. The set of anthropozoogenic factors encompassing enclosures, overgrazing and trampling, rodent damaging and exceedingly ditching in the wetlands are assumed to be the main controlling mechanisms for the landscape degradation. A suite of strict protection policies is urgent and indispensable for self-regulation and restoration of the alpine meadow ecosystem. Controlling the size of livestock, less ditching in the rangeland, and the launching of a more strict nature reserve management by adjacent Ruoergai, Maqu and Hongyuan Counties would be practical and efficacious in achieving these objectives.     

Towards a seismic design method for plane steel frames using equivalent modal damping ratios

A method for seismic design of plane steel moment resisting frames based on the use of equivalent modal damping ratios is developed. The method determines the design base shear of the structure through spectrum analysis using rationally obtained equivalent modal damping ratios instead of the crude strength reduction (behavior) factor. An equivalent linear structure, which retains the mass and initial stiffness of the original non-linear structure and takes into account geometrical non-linearity and inelasticity in the form of equivalent, time-invariant, modal damping ratios is established. The equivalent damping ratios for the first few significant modes are numerically computed by first iteratively forming a frequency response transfer function modulus until it satisfies certain smoothness criteria and then by solving a set of non-linear algebraic equations. Thus, design equations providing equivalent damping ratios as functions of period and allowable deformation and damage are constructed using extensive numerical data coming from plane steel moment resisting frames excited by various seismic motions. These equations can be used in conjunction with a design spectrum, appropriately constructed for high damping values, and modal synthesis tools to calculate the seismic design forces of the structure. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples. It is concluded that unlike the usual approach of seismic codes employing a single common value of the strength reduction factor value for all modes, the proposed approach working with deformation and damage dependent equivalent modal damping ratios leads to more accurate and deformation and damage controlled results.     

A medieval settlement caught in the sand: Optical dating of sand-drifting at Pulle (N Belgium)

Close to the village of Pulle (N Belgium), six trenches were opened for archaeological research. This resulted in the discovery of a dense spread of traces of human settlement. Only a relatively small number of artefacts was found, but these allowed attributing the traces to habitation during the Iron Age and Early Middle Ages. In one of the trenches, the level with the archaeological finds was covered by a drift-sand dune. The accumulation of these aeolian sediments presumably put an end to the human occupation. Hence, dating these sediments might provide essential information as to the chronology of the occupational history of the site.Quartz-based optical dating was applied to constrain the timing of sand-drifting at Pulle. All samples showed satisfactory luminescence characteristics and yielded an internally consistent set of optical ages. Within analytical uncertainty, the age results show no increase with depth and do not allow differentiating between distinct phases of sand-drifting. An average age of 1.2 ± 0.1 ka was obtained, which is interpreted as an upper age limit for human occupation at the site. The results also illustrate (the limit on) the time resolution that can be achieved through conventional quartz single-aliquot optical dating techniques; considering these limitations, we conclude that the sand-drifting at Pulle occurred during a single, fairly short event in the Early Middle Ages.     

SDSS unveils a population of intrinsically faint cataclysmic variables at the minimum orbital period

We discuss the properties of 137 cataclysmic variables (CVs) which are included in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopic data base, and for which accurate orbital periods have been measured. 92 of these systems are new discoveries from SDSS and were followed-up in more detail over the past few years. 45 systems were previously identified as CVs because of the detection of optical outbursts and/or X-ray emission, and subsequently re-identified from the SDSS spectroscopy. The period distribution of the SDSS CVs differs dramatically from that of all the previously known CVs, in particular it contains a significant accumulation of systems in the orbital period range 80–86 min. We identify this feature as the elusive 'period minimum spike' predicted by CV population models, which resolves a long-standing discrepancy between compact binary evolution theory and observations. We show that this spike is almost entirely due to the large number of CVs with very low accretion activity identified by SDSS. The optical spectra of these systems are dominated by emission from the white dwarf photosphere, and display little or no spectroscopic signature from the donor stars, suggesting very low mass companion stars. We determine the average absolute magnitude of these low-luminosity CVs at the period minimum to be  〈 M_g 〉= 11.6 ± 0.7  . Comparison of the SDSS CV sample to the CVs found in the Hamburg Quasar Survey and the Palomar Green Survey suggests that the depth of SDSS is the key ingredient resulting in the discovery of a large number of intrinsically faint short-period systems.     

Prediction of the speciation of alkaline earths adsorbed on mineral surfaces in salt solutions

Despite the fact that the bulk compositions of most low temperature natural surface waters, groundwaters, and porewaters are heavily influenced by alkaline earths, an understanding of the development of proton surface charge in the presence of alkaline earth adsorption on the surfaces of minerals is lacking. In particular, models of speciation at the mineral-water interface in systems involving alkaline earths need to be established for a range of different minerals. In the present study, X-ray standing wave results for Sr²⁺ adsorption on rutile as a tetranuclear complex [Fenter, P., Cheng, L., Rihs, S., Machesky, M., Bedyzk, M.D., Sturchio, N.C., 2000. Electrical double-layer structure at the rutile-water interface as observed in situ with small-period X-ray standing waves. J. Colloid Interface Sci.225, 154-165] are used as constraints for all the alkaline earths in surface complexation simulations of proton surface charge, metal adsorption, and electrokinetic experiments referring to wide ranges of pH, ionic strength, surface coverage, and type of oxide. The tetranuclear reaction

4>SOH+M²⁺+H₂O=(>SOH)₂(>SO^-)₂_M(OH)⁺+3H⁺     

Multi-view dense matching supported by triangular meshes

We present a new procedure to compute dense 3D point clouds from a sequential set of images. This procedure is considered as a second step of a three-step algorithm for 3D reconstruction from image sequences, whose first step consists of image orientation and the last step is shape reconstruction. We assume that the camera matrices as well as a sparse set of 3D points are available and we strive for obtaining a dense and reliable 3D point cloud. Three novel ideas are presented: (1) for sparse tracking and triangulation, the search space for correspondences is reduced to a line segment by means of known camera matrices and disparity ranges are provided by triangular meshes from the already available points; (2) triangular meshes from extended sets of points are used for dense matching, because these meshes help to reconstruct points in weakly textured areas and present a natural way to obtain subpixel accuracy; (3) two non-local optimization methods, namely, 1D dynamic programming along horizontal lines and semi-global optimization were employed for refinement of local results obtained from an arbitrary number of images. All methods were extensively tested on a benchmark data set and an infrared video sequence. Both visual and quantitative results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.     

The dynamics of two massive planets on inclined orbits

The significant orbital eccentricities of most giant extrasolar planets may have their origin in the gravitational dynamics of initially unstable multiple planet systems. In this work, we explore the dynamics of two close planets on inclined orbits through both analytical techniques and extensive numerical scattering experiments. We derive a criterion for two equal mass planets on circular inclined orbits to achieve Hill stability, and conclude that significant radial migration and eccentricity pumping of both planets occurs predominantly by 2:1 and 5:3 mean motion resonant interactions. Using Laplace-Lagrange secular theory, we obtain analytical secular solutions for the orbital inclinations and longitudes of ascending nodes, and use those solutions to distinguish between the secular and resonant dynamics which arise in numerical simulations. We also illustrate how encounter maps, typically used to trace the motion of massless particles, may be modified to reproduce the gross instability seen by the numerical integrations. Such a correlation suggests promising future use of such maps to model the dynamics of more coplanar massive planet systems.