Extreme value theory-based integrity monitoring of global navigation satellite systems

Measurements consistency-based Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) is the main technique for monitoring the integrity of global satellite navigation systems at the user-level. Existing RAIM algorithms utilize two tests, in the position domain a test for RAIM availability and in the measurement domain a test for failure detection. These tests involve the computation of three parameters: test statistic, decision threshold, and protection level. The test statistic is based on the actual measurements in the form of the sum of the squared errors (SSE). The decision threshold is chosen on the basis of the statistical characteristics of the SSE including the assumption that the errors are normally distributed. However, in practice residual, error distributions exhibit heavier tails than predicted by the Gaussian model. Therefore, this paper challenges the normality assumption of the residual navigation errors in three ways. First, real data are used to assess its impact on the traditional RAIM algorithm. Second, extreme value theory is applied to the tails, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is derived to capture residual navigation errors. Third, the performance of the traditional RAIM approach is compared with that employing the GEV distribution. The results demonstrate that the GEV model is a more accurate representation of the distribution of residual navigation errors than the conventional Gaussian model and should be used in the development of integrity monitoring algorithms.     

Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections

In this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or “delta”, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections.     

Prediction of the speciation of alkaline earths adsorbed on mineral surfaces in salt solutions

Despite the fact that the bulk compositions of most low temperature natural surface waters, groundwaters, and porewaters are heavily influenced by alkaline earths, an understanding of the development of proton surface charge in the presence of alkaline earth adsorption on the surfaces of minerals is lacking. In particular, models of speciation at the mineral-water interface in systems involving alkaline earths need to be established for a range of different minerals. In the present study, X-ray standing wave results for Sr²⁺ adsorption on rutile as a tetranuclear complex [Fenter, P., Cheng, L., Rihs, S., Machesky, M., Bedyzk, M.D., Sturchio, N.C., 2000. Electrical double-layer structure at the rutile-water interface as observed in situ with small-period X-ray standing waves. J. Colloid Interface Sci.225, 154-165] are used as constraints for all the alkaline earths in surface complexation simulations of proton surface charge, metal adsorption, and electrokinetic experiments referring to wide ranges of pH, ionic strength, surface coverage, and type of oxide. The tetranuclear reaction

4>SOH+M²⁺+H₂O=(>SOH)₂(>SO^-)₂_M(OH)⁺+3H⁺     

Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical downscaling methods in the context of wildfire research, focusing in the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), one of the most popular fire danger indices. We target on the Iberian Peninsula and Greece and use historical observations of the FWI meteorological drivers (temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation) in several local stations. In particular, we analyze the performance of the analog method, which is a convenient first choice for this problem since it guarantees physical and spatial consistency of the downscaled variables, regardless of their different statistical properties. First we validate the method in perfect model conditions using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Overall, not all variables are downscaled with the same accuracy, with the poorest results (with spatially averaged daily correlations below 0.5) obtained for wind, followed by precipitation. Consequently, those FWI components mostly relying on those parameters exhibit the poorest results. However, those deficiencies are compensated in the resulting FWI values due to the overall high performance of temperature and relative humidity. Then, we check the suitability of the method to downscale control projections (20C3M scenario) from a single GCM (the ECHAM5 model) and compute the downscaled future fire danger projections for the transient A1B scenario. In order to detect problems due to non-stationarities related to climate change, we compare the results with those obtained with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by the same GCM. Although both statistical and dynamical projections exhibit a similar pattern of risk increment in the first half of the 21st century, they diverge during the second half of the century. As a conclusion, we advocate caution in the use of projections for this last period, regardless of the regionalization technique applied.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111001113

The Rheic Ocean was one of the most important oceans of the Paleozoic Era.It lay between Laurentia and Gondwana from the Early Ordovician and closed to produce the vast Ouachita-Alleghanian -Variscan orogen during the assembly of Pangea.Rifting began in the Cambrian as a continuation of Neoproterozoic orogenic activity and the ocean opened in the Early Ordovician with the separation of several Neoproterozoic arc terranes from the continental margin of northern Gondwana along the line of a former suture.The rapid rate of ocean opening suggests it was driven by slab pull in the outboard lapetus Ocean.The ocean reached its greatest width with the closure of lapetus and the accretion of the periGondwanan arc terranes to Laurentia in the Silurian.Ocean closure began in the Devonian and continued through the Mississippian as Gondwana sutured to Laurussia to form Pangea.The ocean consequently plays a dominant role in the Appalachian-Ouachita orogeny of North America,in the basement geology of southern Europe,and in the Paleozoic sedimentary,structural and tectonothermal record from Middle America to the Middle East.Its closure brought the Paleozoic Era to an end.     

The action of neutral oleic acid in the flotation of hematite

Acidification of solutions of oleate salts forms emulsions of oleic acid. It was found that these emulsions produce a different adsorption behaviour on different size fractions of the same mineral. At low oleate concentrations, for the finer fractions, adsorption at acid pH was higher than chemisorption at pH = 7.5; adsorption was lower for the coarser, flotation-size fractions. Therefore, the conclusions obtained in acid solutions for the adsorption of oleate on fine minerals cannot be applied to flotation-size minerals.At low oleate concentrations there is a good correlation between oleate adsorption and hematite flotation. This does not hold for oleate concentrations > 5· 10^?5M, where there is poor flotability in the acid region, although the adsorption of oleic acid is very high. This is attributed to the disordered character of the layer of cooperatively adsorbed oleic acid.