Scenarios of extreme temperature events

Based on the principles of the probability theory a statistical model has been developed assessing the likelihood of occurrence of extreme temperature events from the knowledge of the statistical characteristics of the daily temperature extremes. It is demonstrated that the probability of such events is more sensitive to changes in the variability of climate than to changes in its average. Further, this sensitivity increases at a nonlinear rate the more extreme the event. The applicability of the model has been verified by comparing the simulated frequencies of a large spectrum of temperature events with the observed numbers derived from a long time series of daily temperature extremes at Potsdam. Accordingly, the relative simulation errors increase significantly as the events become more extreme. A correction is possible, because most of these errors are systematic rather than random. Moreover, in accordance with the climate observations the simulations reveal statistically significant linear trends in the number of extreme events since the end of the last century. Local scenarios of extreme temperature events have been derived for the city of Berlin by considering both hypothetical new climate states and climate changes simulated by a General Circulation Model (GCM). As a consequence of an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases up to the end of the next century according to the IPCC Scenario A the repetition rate of extreme events in summer (e.g., hot days) is expected to rise considerably relative to the current climate. Moreover, in the winter season cold days will become extremely rare.     

Photogrammetry as a tool for detecting recent crustal movements

Progress in model building and in advanced exposure and evaluation methods is leading photogrammetry up into the field of precise point determination, up to now solved by classical geodetic triangulation and/or trilateration. In combination with the statistical test theory, photogrammetry can be used as a tool to detect recent crustal movements or deformations of man-made constructions, such as in coal mining or oil and gas exploitation.

For these reasons, this paper deals with model building for modern aerial triangulation with respect to hypothesis tests to detect point displacements greater than the measurement noise. An example from brown-coal mining demonstrates accuracies and the application of some statistical tests shows the efficiency of advanced aerial photogrammetry.     

An optimized chemiluminescence detector for tropospheric NO measurements

A detector for the chemiluminescent measurement of NO in background air is described. A large reduction of interferences is achieved by using a stabilized ozone generator which allows operation of the instrument at lower O₃ concentrations. Purification and humidification of the O₃ stream further reduces interferences and shortens the instrumental clean-up time, which is important for aircraft missions. From a series of laboratory tests and from measurements performed aboard an aircraft it is demonstrated that the remaining interferences are acceptable for measurements in the undisturbed troposphere. In particular, no remnant NO signal is observed in clean air at night. During flight, a detection limit (2) of 20 ppt is achieved for a 1 min integration time.     

Evolution of the West Andean Escarpment at 18°S (N. Chile) during the last 25 Ma: uplift, erosion and collapse through time

The geological record of the Western Andean Escarpment (WARP) reveals episodes of uplift, erosion, volcanism and sedimentation. The lithological sequence at 18°S comprises a thick pile of Azapa Conglomerates (25–19 Ma), an overlying series of widespread rhyodacitic Oxaya Ignimbrites (up to 900 m thick, ca. 19 Ma), which are in turn covered by a series of mafic andesite shield volcanoes. Between 19 and 12 Ma, the surface of the Oxaya Ignimbrites evolved into a large monocline on the western slope of the Andes. A giant antithetically rotated block (Oxaya Block, 80 km×20 km) formed on this slope at about 10–12 Ma and resulted in an easterly dip and a reversed drainage on the block's surface. Morphology, topography and stratigraphic observations argue for a gravitational cause of this rotation. A “secondary” gravitational collapse (50 km³), extending 25 km to the west occurred on the steep western front of the Oxaya Block. Alluvial and fluvial sediments (11–2.7 Ma) accumulated in a half graben to the east of the tilted block and were later thrust over by the rocks of the escarpment wall, indicating further shortening between 8 and 6 Ma. Flatlying Upper Miocene sediments (<5.5 Ma) and the 2.7 Ma Lauca–Peréz Ignimbrite have not been significantly shortened since 6 Ma, suggesting that recent uplift is at least partly caused by regional tilting of the Western Andean slope.     

Charge generation and propagation in igneous rocks

Various electrical phenomena have been reported prior to or concurrent with earthquakes such as resistivity changes, ground potentials, electromagnetic (EM), and luminous signals. Doubts have been raised as to whether some of these phenomena are real and indeed precursory. One of the reasons for uncertainty is that, despite decades of intense work, there is still no physically coherent model. Using low- to medium-velocity impacts to measure electrical signals with microsecond time resolution, it has now been observed that when dry gabbro and diorite cores are impacted at relatively low velocities, 100 m/s, highly mobile charge carriers are generated in a small volume near the impact point. They spread through the rocks, causing electric potentials exceeding +400 mV, EM, and light emission. As the charge cloud spreads, the rock becomes momentarily conductive. When a dry granite block is impacted at higher velocity, 1.5 km/s, the propagation of the P and S waves is registered through the transient piezoelectric response of quartz. After the sound waves have passed, the surface of the granite block becomes positively charged, suggesting the same charge carriers as observed during the low-velocity impact experiments, expanding from within the bulk. During the next 2–3 ms the surface potential oscillates, indicating pulses of electrons injected from ground and contact electrodes. The observations are consistent with positive holes, e.g. defect electrons in the O²⁻ sublattice, traveling via the O 2p-dominated valence band of the silicate minerals. Before activation, the positive holes lay dormant in the form of electrically inactive positive hole pairs (PHP), chemically equivalent to peroxy links, O₃X/^OO\XO₃, with X=Si⁴⁺, Al³⁺, etc. PHPs are introduced into the minerals by way of hydroxyl, O₃X–OH, which all nominally anhydrous minerals incorporate when crystallizing in H₂O-laden environments. The fact that positive holes can be activated by low-energy impacts, and their attendant sound waves, suggests that they can also be activated by microfracturing. Depending on where in the stressed rock volume the charge carriers are activated, they will form rapidly moving or fluctuating charge clouds that may account for earthquake-related electrical signals and EM emission. Wherever such charge clouds intersect the surface, high fields are expected, causing electric discharges and earthquake lights.     

Towards an integration of process measurements, archive analysis and modelling in geomorphology — the Kärkevagge experimental site, Abisko area, northern Sweden

The analysis of Holocene geomorphic process activity demands long–term data sets, which are available for the Kärkevagge catchment due to 50 years of intensive geomorphologic field studies. This data set is used in combination with additional field measurements, remote sensing and digital elevation model (DEM) analysis to provide input data for modelling Holocene valley development. On the basis of this information, geomorphic process units (GPUs) are defined by means of GIS modelling. These units represent areas of homogeneous process composition that transfer sediments. Since the data base enables the quantification of single processes, the interaction of processes within the units can also be quantified. Applying this concept permits calculation of recent sediment transfer rates and hence leads to a better understanding of actual geomorphic landscape development activity. To extrapolate these data in time and space the process–related sediments in the valley are analysed for depth and total volume, primarily using geophysical methods. In this fashion the validity of measured process rates is evaluated for the Holocene time scale. Results from this analysis are exemplified in a cross–profile showing some of the principal sediment units in the valley. For example, the measured modern rates on a slush torrent debris fan seem to represent the Holocene mean rate. This approach should also be suitable for revealing Holocene geomorphic landscape development in terms of climate change.     

Large wood potential,piece characteristics,and flood effects in Swiss mountain streams

We present results of two studies on the (1) potential wood load in steep headwater streams and (2) properties of large wood (LW) transported in mountain rivers during the large August 2005 flood event in Switzerland. Ten headwater reaches of 1000 m length were surveyed in different regions of Switzerland. The potential wood load was estimated for in-channel deadwood, and possible driving factors were explored. Correlations were found with dead wood volume on hillslopes and mean channel width. We established size distributions of LW pieces and identified probable recruitment processes. Four reaches were resurveyed after an exceptionally severe flood in August 2005, showing limited LW transport in channels but considerable wood input by mass wasting processes. In addition, characteristics of deposits of LW along mountain rivers affected by the 2005 flood were investigated. Diameter and length distribution of transported and deposited pieces were comparable to those of LW from steep headwater streams, yet with considerably fewer long pieces in the deposits of mountain rivers. Most LW pieces were fresh wood, indicating that the portion of in-channel deadwood transported during the 2005 flood was limited. Findings of the study contribute to a better understanding of LW dynamics in Alpine mountain streams.     

Solar Eclipses and the Surface Properties of Water

Earth, Moon, and Planets - During four solar eclipse events (two annular, one total and one partial) a correlation was observed between a change in water surface tension and the magnitude of the...     

Ceres’ spectral link to carbonaceous chondrites—Analysis of the dark background materials

Ceres’ surface has commonly been linked with carbonaceous chondrites (CCs) by ground‐based telescopic observations, because of its low albedo, flat to red‐sloped spectra in the visible and near‐infrared (VIS/NIR) wavelength region, and the absence of distinct absorption bands, though no currently known meteorites provide complete spectral matches to Ceres. Spatially resolved data of the Dawn Framing Camera (FC) reveal a generally dark surface covered with bright spots exhibiting reflectance values several times higher than Ceres’ background. In this work, we investigated FC data from High Altitude Mapping Orbit (HAMO) and Ceres eXtended Juling (CXJ) orbit (~140 m/pixel) for global spectral variations. We found that the cerean surface mainly differs by spectral slope over the whole FC wavelength region (0.4–1.0 μm). Areas exhibiting slopes ?1 constitute only ~3% of the cerean surface and mainly occur in the bright material in and around young craters, whereas slopes ≥?10% μm^?1 occur on more than 90% of the cerean surface; the latter being denoted as Ceres’ background material in this work. FC and Visible and Infrared Spectrometer (VIR) spectra of this background material were compared to the suite of CCs spectrally investigated so far regarding their VIS/NIR region and 2.7 μm absorption, as well as their reflectance at 0.653 μm. This resulted in a good match to heated CI Ivuna (heated to 200–300 °C) and a better match for CM1 meteorites, especially Moapa Valley. This possibly indicates that the alteration of CM2 to CM1 took place on Ceres.     

Gravity studies of Aphrodite Terra on Venus

Aphrodite Terra is the largest highland area on Venus of the size of Africa. It is traversed by the Aphrodite-Beta belt of troughs with a length of 21 000 km. There are two other large belts of troughs on Venus: Themis-Atla, 14 000 km long, and Beta-Phoebe, 8000 km long. In this paper, four gravity profiles across Aphrodite Terra are studied and compared with the morphology.Western Aphrodite and Niobe Planitia to the north seem to be in isostatic equilibrium under the assumption of Airy compensation with a mean crustal thickness of T = 50 km. The graben area in the middle part of Aphrodite Terra shows negative isostatic gravity anomalies indicating deficit masses. The adjacent Atla Regio to the east is regionally Airy compensated with T = 50 km, and the mountains Nokomis, Maat and Ozza Montes are locally undercompensated, i.e. they are associated with surplus masses in the depth. Ulfrun Regio, a hilly terrain just east of Atla Regio is Airy compensated with T = 30 km. These results give a mean crustal thickness around 50 km for Aphrodite Terra. The isostatic disturbed zones in the middle of Aphrodite (grabens) and Atla Regio as well as the undercompensated Beta Regio have been associated with recent volcanism from the observation of the concentrations of electrical discharges in these areas. Atla and Beta Regiones are both located at intersections of the systems of troughs described above.Contribution No. 308, Institut für Geophysik der Universität Kiel, F.R.G.