Modeling and Mapping High Water Table for a Coastal Region in Florida using Lidar DEM Data

Predicting and mapping high water table elevation in coastal landscapes is critical for both science application projects like inundation risk analysis and engineering projects like pond design and maintenance. Previous studies of water table mapping focused on the application of geostatistical methods, which cannot predict values beyond an observation spatial domain or generate an ideal pattern for regions with sparse measurements. In this study, we evaluated the multiple linear regression (MLR) and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for high water table prediction and mapping using fine spatial resolution lidar-derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, and designed an application protocol of these two techniques for high water table mapping in a coastal landscape where groundwater, tide, and surface water are related. Testing results showed that SVM largely improved the high water table prediction with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.22 feet and root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.22 feet compared to the application of the ordinary Kriging method which could not generate a reasonable water table. MLR was also promising with a MAE of around 2 feet and RMSE of around 3 feet. The study suggests that both MLR and SVM are valuable alternatives to estimate high water table elevation in Florida. Fine resolution lidar DEMs are beneficial for high water table prediction and mapping.     

Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4^°) and regional (resolution 1/10^°) domains with forecast ranges of +?7 and +?3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing +?10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.     

Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

Use of stream response functions to determine impacts of replacing surface-water use with groundwater withdrawals

A regional-scale numerical groundwater model is used to study the impacts of replacing surface-water use with groundwater wells to improve low-flow stream conditions for endangered species within the Bertrand and Fishtrap watersheds, southern British Columbia, Canada and Washington, USA. Stream response functions ranging from 0 to 1.0 were calculated for individual wells placed within a steady-state groundwater flow model at varying distances from the streams to determine the impact that these replacement wells, operating under sustained pumping rates, would have on summer instream flows. Lower response ratios indicate groundwater pumping will have less of an impact on streamflow than taking an equivalent amount of water directly from a surface-water source. Results show that replacing surface-water use with groundwater withdrawals may be a viable alternative for increasing summer streamflows. Assuming combined response factors should be ≤0.5 for irrigators to undergo the expense of installing new wells, ~57% of the land area within 0.8 km of Bertrand Creek would be suitable for replacement wells. Similarly, 70% of the land area within 0.8 km of Fishtrap Creek was found to be appropriate. A visual analysis tool was developed using STELLA to allow stakeholders to quickly evaluate the impact associated with moving their water right.     

Internal structure of massive terrestrial planets

Planetary formation models predict the existence of massive terrestrial planets and experiments are now being designed that should succeed in discovering them and measuring their masses and radii. We calculate internal structures of planets with one to ten times the mass of the Earth (Super-Earths) to obtain scaling laws for total radius, mantle thickness, core size and average density as a function of mass. We explore different compositions and obtain a scaling law of R∝M0.267-0.272 for Super-Earths. We also study a second family of planets, Super-Mercuries with masses ranging from one mercury-mass to ten mercury-masses with similar composition to the Earth's but with a larger core mass fraction. We explore the effect of surface temperature and core mass fraction on the scaling laws for these planets. The scaling law obtained for the Super-Mercuries is R∝M∼0.3.     

Particulate matter geochemistry of a highly industrialized region in the Caribbean:Basis for future toxicological studies

Air pollution has become an important issue,especially in Caribbean urban areas,and,particulate matter(PM)emitted by different natural and anthropogenic sources causes environmental and health issues.In this work,we studied the concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 sources in an industrial and port urban area in the Caribbean region of Colombia.PM samples were collected within 48-h periods between April and October 2018 by using a Partisol 2000 i-D sampler.Elemental geochemical characterization was performed by X-ray fluorescence(XRF)analysis.Further,ionic species and black carbon(BC)were quantified by ion chromatography and reflectance spectroscopy,respectively.Using the Positive Matrix Factorization(PMF)receptor model,the contributions of PM sources were quantified.The average concentration of PM₁₀ was 46.6±16.2μg/m³,with high concentrations of Cl and Ca.For PM_2.5,the average concentration was 12.0±3.2μg/m³,and the most abundant components were BC,S,and Cl.The receptor model identified five sources for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5.For both fractions,the contributions of marine sea spray,re-suspended soil,and vehicular traffic were observed.In addition,PM_2.5 included two mixed sources were found to be fuel oil combustion with fertilizer industry emissions,and secondary aerosol sources with building construction emissions.Further,PM₁₀ was found to also include building construction emissions with re-suspended soil,and metallurgical industry emissions.These obtained geochemical atmospheric results are important for the implementation of strategies for the continuous improvement of the air quality of the Caribbean region.     

Density intrusions with large relative thickness

Previous analyses of density intrusions indicate that only relatively thin intrusions are allowed, to satisfy a momentum balance at the current head. These constraints can be relaxed somewhat by various modifications to the basic theory, but are inconsistent with experimental observations indicating that intrusions occupying nearly the entire flow depth can be produced. An alternative theory of density current propagation does not possess these restrictions on intrusion layer thickness and provides a more satisfactory explanation of experimental observations. New experimental results are presented to corrborate this interpretation.