Sliding element simulating the response of slip surfaces and its application for the prediction of earthquake-induced landslide movement using one-dimensional dynamic analyses

Landslides - Earthquake-induced landslides involve excessive movement of slopes, usually along slip surfaces. This seismic movement of slopes may depend crucially on (a) the soil response along the...     

川西北下二叠统栖霞组微生物丘的发现及地质意义*

通过野外露头与钻井剖面的室内外分析,确认在四川盆地西北部(川西北)下二叠统栖霞组中发育有微生物丘,它们主要由凝块灰(云)岩、叠层灰(云)岩和微生物粘结颗粒灰(云)岩等组成。这些微生物碳酸盐岩发育较为典型的凝块、叠层、窗格、粘结等组构。微生物丘大小不一,实测高度一般为几十厘米至几米,宽度通常变化于几米至几十米之间,具有底平顶凸的典型丘形外貌,以发育向上变浅的沉积序列为特征,一般由丘基、丘核、丘盖3个微相组成,也可与颗粒滩共同构成微生物丘滩复合体。基于区域古地理背景和微生物丘特征的剖析,认为川西北地区栖霞期沉积环境总体受限,推测为半局限—局限台地环境,水深较浅,能量普遍不高;海平面频繁的相对升降变化和微生物丘的侧向迁移叠置,导致发育于缓坡背景下的碳酸盐岩台地极易受限,引起早期沉积物发生与丘滩发育密切相关的准同生期白云石化作用。因此,微生物丘滩复合体是栖霞组白云岩储集层发育的物质基础,台缘坡折带、台内缓坡折带和高地是栖霞组白云岩储集层发育的有利区带,这对寻找规模性层位不稳定的带状白云岩储集层具有重要的指导作用,并将大大拓展栖霞组白云岩储集层的勘探领域。     

利用地面LiDAR精细化测量活断层微地貌形态——以毛垭坝断裂禾尼处断层崖为例

受地壳内部持续运动和沉积、风化等自然动力及人类生产与生活活动影响,活断层微地貌形态往往比较复杂,传统测量方法较难快速、高效地获取大范围内精细化的活断层微地貌形态,激光雷达扫描技术的出现和发展为活断层微地貌的精细化与定量化研究提供了新的技术手段。以川西理塘毛垭坝盆地北缘的正断层崖为研究对象,利用地面LiDAR获取活断层微地貌高精度点云后,经过点云配准、滤波、重采样和三角构网处理后,建立了0.05 m分辨率的数字高程模型和真彩色三维模型,在此基础上分析了断层崖地貌特征,并获取了正断层错动两期最新地貌面的精确垂直位错量。研究结果表明,地面LiDAR技术是精细测量活断层微地貌形态和量化相关地貌特征参数的有效手段,提高了活断层微地貌形态测量的精度和认识水平。     

Lower Cretaceous turbidites in the Shiquanhe–Namco Ophiolite Mélange Zone,Asa area,Tibet:Constraints on the evolution of the Meso-Tethys Ocean

Turbidites from the Shiquanhe–Namco Ophiolite Mélange Zone(SNMZ) record critical information about the tectonic affinity of the SNMZ and the evolutionary history of the Meso-Tethys Ocean in Tibet.This paper reports sedimentologic,sandstone petrographic,zircon U-Pb geochronologic,and clastic rocks geochemical data of newly identified turbidites(Asa Formation) in the Asa Ophiolite Mélange.The youngest ages of detrital zircon from the turbiditic sandstone samples,together with ～115 Ma U-Pb concordant age from the tuff intercalation within the Asa Formation indicate an Early Cretaceous age.The sandstone mineral modal composition data show that the main component is quartz grains and the minor components are sedimentary and volcanic fragments,suggesting that the turbidites were mainly derived from a recycled orogen provenance with a minor addition of volcanic arc materials.The detrital U-Pb zircon ages of turbiditic sandstones yield main age populations of170–120 Ma,300–220 Ma,600–500 Ma,1000–700 Ma,1900–1500 Ma,and ～2500 Ma,similar to the ages of the Qiangtang Terrane(age peak of 600–500 Ma,1000–900 Ma,～1850 Ma and ～2500 Ma) and the accretionary complex in the Bangong–Nujiang Ophiolite Zone(BNMZ) rather than the age of the Central Lhasa Terrane(age peak of ～300 Ma,～550 Ma and ～1150 Ma).The mineral modal compositions,detrital U-Pb zircon ages,and geochemical data of clastic rocks suggest that the Asa Formation is composed of sediments primarily recycled from the Jurassic accretionary complex within the BNMZ with the secondary addition of intermediate-felsic island arc materials from the South Qiangtang Terrane.Based on our new results and previous studies,we infer that the SNMZ represents a part of the Meso-Tethys Suture Zone,rather than a southward tectonic klippe of the BNMZ or an isolated ophiolitic mélange zone within the Lhasa Terrane.The Meso-Tethys Suture Zone records the continuous evolutionary history of the northward subduction,accretion,arc-Lhasa collision,and Lhasa-Qiangtang collision of the Meso-Tethys Ocean from the Early Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous.     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

拜泉县霜冻灾害的区划研究

<正>1引言1.1气象灾害区划及防御工作的研究意义气象灾害是指由于气象因素直接或间接的影响造成的灾害,常见的气象灾害主要有干旱、霜冻、洪涝、冰雹、大风等。拜泉县位于黑龙江省西北部,地处小兴安岭余脉与嫩江平原的过渡地带,属寒温带气候。主要气象灾害为水灾、旱灾、霜冻、冰雹、雷电等。给工农业生产造成不同程度的危害,对社会经济造成严重的影响。因此对影响拜泉县的气象灾害进行区划和防御管理对策研究,对提高全县防灾减灾能力具有重要     

基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法 ——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例

本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气评价为例,总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数,量化了各关键参数平面分布,运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重,通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型:有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×RO+0.093×孔隙度...     

高质量增长背景下海洋经济发展的时空协调模式研究——基于环渤海地区地级市的实证

海洋经济协调发展是科学评价区域海洋经济发展质量的重要依据。遵循城市与海洋经济协同的发展理念,构建环渤海城市海洋经济发展时空协调度评价体系,运用复杂系统时空协调度评价模型,计算并分析2008~2016年环渤海城市海洋经济发展时空协调度,通过SaTScan软件分析其时空聚类区。研究结果显示：①海洋经济各系统发展水平中,社会系统呈大幅度分散上升趋势,经济系统、生态系统与综合系统呈小幅度集中与分散交替上升趋势;协调等级时序变化稳定型城市主要是大连、潍坊、青岛、烟台、威海。②协调度时空聚类区既有空间分异又有重叠交集,社会系统、综合系统、经济系统聚类区依次相互覆盖,生态系统与其它三系统既有重叠区也有独立区。③聚类区内部,社会系统最为稳定,综合系统、经济系统次之,生态系统最为薄弱。     

Species Abundance Distribution Patterns of a Toona ciliata Community in Xingdoushan Nature Reserve

With the goal of model fitting species abundance distribution patterns of the tree, shrub and herb layers of the natural Toona ciliata community in Xingdoushan Nature Reserve, Enshi Autonomous Prefecture, Hubei Province, we used the data collected from the field survey and employed different ecological niche models. The models tested were the broken stick model (BSM), the overlapping niche model (ONM) and the niche preemption model (NPM), as well as three statistic models, the log-series distribution model (LSD), the log-normal distribution model (LND) and the Weibull distribution model (WDM). To determine the fitted model most suitable to each layer, the fitting effects were judged by criteria of the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Chi-square and the K-S values with no significant difference (P>0.05) between the theoretical predictions and observed species abundance distribution values. The result showed: (1) The fitting suitability and goodness of fit of the tree, shrub and herb layers by using the three ecological niche models were ranked as: NPM>BSM>ONM. Of the three statistical models, by accepting the fitting results of the three layers, WDM was the best fitting model, followed by LND. By rejecting the fitting tests of the herb layer, LSD had the worst fitting effect. The goodness of the statistical models was ranked as: WDM>LND>LSD. In general, the statistical models had better fitting results than the ecological models. (2) T. ciliata was the dominant species of the tree layer. The species richness and diversity of the herb layer were much higher than those of either the tree layer or the shrub layer. The species richness and diversity of the shrub layer were slightly higher than those of the tree layer. The community evenness accorded to the following order: herb>shrub>tree. Considering the fitting results of the different layers, different ecological niche models or statistical models with optimal goodness of fit and ecological significance can be given priority to in studying the species abundance distribution patterns of T. ciliata communities.     

The potential of FAST in detecting celestial hydroxyl masers and related science topics

The Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope(FAST) will make contributions to studies of Galactic and extragalactic masers. This telescope, with construction finished and now undergoing commissioning, has an innovative design that leads to the highest sensitivity of any single dish radio telescope in the world. FAST's potential for OH megamaser research is discussed, including the sky density of masers detectable in surveys. The scientific impact expected from FAST maser studies is also discussed.