Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.     

Origin and tectonic significance of a Mesozoic multi-layer over-thrust system within the Yangtze Block (South China)

In the Yangtze Block (South China), a well-developed Mesozoic thrust system extends through the Xuefeng and Wuling mountains in the southeast to the Sichuan basin in the northwest. The system comprises both thin- and thick-skinned thrust units separated by a boundary detachment fault, the Dayin fault. To the northwest, the thin-skinned belt is characterized by either chevron anticlines and box synclines to the northwest or chevron synclines to the southeast. The former structural style displays narrow exposures for the cores of anticlines and wider exposures for the cores of synclines. Thrust detachments occur along Silurian (Fs) and Lower Cambrian (Fc) strata and are dominantly associated with the anticlines. To the southeast, this style of deformation passes gradually into one characterized by chevron synclines with associated principal detachment faults along Silurian (Fs), Cambrian (Fc) and Lower Sinian (Fz) strata. There are, however, numerous secondary back thrusts. Therefore, the thin-skinned belt is like the Valley and Ridge Province of the North American Applachian Mountains. The thick-skinned belt structurally overlies the thin-skinned belt and is characterized by a number of klippen including the Xuefeng and Wuling nappes. It is thus comparable to the Blue Ridge Province of Appalachia.The structural pattern of this thrust system in South China can be explained by a model involving detachment faulting along various stratigraphic layers at different stages of its evolution. The system was developed through a northwest stepwise progression of deformation with the earliest delamination along Lower Sinian strata (Fz). Analyses of balanced geological cross-sections yield about 18.1–21% (total 88 km) shortening for the thin-skinned unit and at least this amount of shortening for the thick-skinned unit. The compressional deformation from southeast to northwest during Late Jurassic to Cretaceous time occurred after the westward progressive collision of the Yangtze Block with the North China Block and suggests that the orogenic event was intracontinental in nature.     

Theory and Method of Mineral Resource Prediction Based on Synthetic Information

Metallogenic prognosis of synthetic information uses the geological body and the miaeral resource body as a statistical unit to interpret synthetically the information of geology, geophysics, geo-chemistry and remote sensing from the evolution of geology and puts all the information into one entire system by drawing up digitalized interpretation maps of the synthetic information. On such basis, differ-ent grades and types of mineral resource prospecting models and predictive models of synthetic informa-tion can be established. Hence, a new integrated prediction system will be formed of metallogenic prog-nosis (qualitative prediction), mineral resources statistic prediction (determining targets) and mlaeral resources prediction (determining resources amount).     

Evidence for fullerenes in solid bitumen from pillow lavas of Proterozoic age from Mítov (Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic)

Andesitic pillow lavas containing biogenic, solid bitumen (SB) are a constituent of a Neoproterozoic volcanosedimentary sequence (Teplá-Barrandian unit, Bohemian Massif) in the Mítov area of the Czech Republic. A black shale formation that is crosscut by these andesitic basalts is 565 Ma old. Carbon disulfide extracts of two powdered samples of SB contain 0.2 and 0.3 ppm of C₆₀, respectively, as determined by high-pressure liquid chromatography. The peak assignment based on retention time is fully supported by high-resolution electron ionization mass spectrometry (EI-MS). No C₇₀ was detected, nor was C₆₀ found in two other SB samples from this locality. Other investigated carbonaceous samples from Bohemia (coals and anthracites of Upper Paleozoic age and anthraxolite, graphitoids, and graphite of Upper Proterozoic age) did not contain fullerenes at concentrations above the detection limit of 0.01 ppm. The absence of C₆₀ in these samples was confirmed by EI-MS. The proposed mechanism of fullerene formation involves a primary algal phase, generation of a hydrocarbonaceous mixture in the course of thermal evolution of the sedimentary series, and their high-temperature transformation related to the extrusion of basalt. An important feature for fullerene conservation was the enclosure of fullerenes in SB with a structure similar to glasslike carbon, where the fullerene was protected against oxidation.     

南海上层海洋热结构的年循环与半年循环

根据南海季风试验(SCSMEX)期间南海内区的三个ATLAS(Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System)锚碇浮标资料(1998年4月～1999年4月),采用谐波分析方法对南海上层海洋水温年循环、半年循环加以分离,发现无论在年循环还是在半年循环尺度上,18°N附近SCS1站与13°N附近SCS3站的水温变化次表层与表层呈反位相;15°20′N附近SCS2站水温变化基本上次表层与表层同位相.这说明不同区域上层海洋热变化受不同的正压与斜压模态控制.其次,SCS2、SCS3两点水温年循环振幅均在次表层达到极值;而SCS1在表层达到极大值,在100 m深度达到次极大值.3个站位水温半年循环振幅极值均出现在次表层内,这说明该层内的水温半年循环在温度变化趋势中所占的权重比在表层的权重大.     

次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统研究进展

回顾了75年来中国科学院大气物理研究所科研人员在次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统领域的研究工作,这些领域主要包括暴雨、中尺度低空急流、低涡、梅雨锋结构及梅雨锋生、对称不稳定和涡层不稳定以及暴雨等灾害天气的天气动力学及数值模拟研究等;总结了在次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统研究的不同时期所取得的成就以及这些成就在防止和减轻中尺度暴雨灾害方面所起到的重要作用.     

ENSO动力学与预测

发生在热带太平洋地区的ENSO现象是海气相互作用的集中表现,是年际气候变化中的最强信号.由于它的发生会在全球许多地区引起严重的气候异常,极大地影响着这些地区的工农业生产和人民生活,因此,对ENSO的机理及其预测的研究一直是大气海洋界的一个热点研究课题.中国科学院大气物理研究所在ENSO的机理及其预测等方面进行了大量的研究,取得了许多研究成果.作者将对中国科学院大气物理研究所在这方面的一些研究成果进行回顾和介绍.     

一次梅雨锋降水系统三维风场双、三雷达对比研究

2002年，“我国重大气候和天气灾害的形成机理与预测理论研究”项目首次启用三多普勒天气雷达组网对暴雨系统进行同步观测，作者使用MUSCAT技术对6月24日梅雨锋雨带上的一个中β系统进行了双、三多普勒雷达三维风场对比分析，表明大气中低层辐合线是此次暴雨系统的一个重要特征。     

日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报

利用1960～2000年青岛、射阳、徐州3站08时探空资料及日照站08时地面气象资料，分析了日照地区出现的16次降雹天气的时空分布特征，在对降雹天气分型的基础上利用积云数值模式计算降雹因子，用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹因子个例库，用历史实况资料建立实况个例库，用距离相似法实现日照地区短时冰雹定时、定点、定量的客观预报。