Developing Potentiometric Surfaces and Flow Fields with a Head‐Specified MODFLOW Model

Investigating changes in an aquifer system often involves comparison of observed heads from different synoptic measurements, generally with potentiometric surfaces developed by hand or a statistical approach. Alternatively, head‐specified MODFLOW models, in which constant head cells simulate observed heads, generate gridded potentiometric surfaces that explicitly account for Darcy's Law and mass balance. We developed a transient head‐specified MODFLOW model for the stratified Cambrian‐Ordovician sandstone aquifer system of northeastern Illinois to analyze flow within its 275 m deep cone of depression. Potentiometric surfaces were developed using static heads from production wells regardless of open interval; hence assuming no vertical head difference. This assumption was tested against steady‐state, head‐specified models of each sandstone strata for 1980 and 2014. The results indicate that the original conceptual model was appropriate in 1980 but not 2014, where a vertical head difference had developed at the center of the cone of depression. For earlier years, when the head difference was minimal, the transient head‐specified model compared well with a traditional, flow‐specified model. In later years, the transient head‐specified model overestimated removal of water from storage. MODFLOW facilitates the development of a time‐series of potentiometric surfaces and can easily be modified to test the impacts of different conceptual models, such as assumptions on vertical head differences. For this study of a deep confined aquifer, MODFLOW also offers advantages in generating potentiometric surfaces and flow fields over statistical interpolation techniques, although future research is needed to assess its performance in other settings.     

Petrography,stable isotope compositions,microRaman spectroscopy,and presolar components of Roberts Massif 04133: A reduced CV3 carbonaceous chondrite

Here, we report the mineralogy, petrography, C‐N‐O‐stable isotope compositions, degree of disorder of organic matter, and abundances of presolar components of the chondrite Roberts Massif (RBT) 04133 using a coordinated, multitechnique approach. The results of this study are inconsistent with its initial classification as a Renazzo‐like carbonaceous chondrite, and strongly support RBT 04133 being a brecciated, reduced petrologic type >3.3 Vigarano‐like carbonaceous (CV) chondrite. RBT 04133 shows no evidence for aqueous alteration. However, it is mildly thermally altered (up to approximately 440 °C); which is apparent in its whole‐rock C and N isotopic compositions, the degree of disorder of C in insoluble organic matter, low presolar grain abundances, minor element compositions of Fe,Ni metal, chromite compositions and morphologies, and the presence of unequilibrated silicates. Sulfides within type I chondrules from RBT 04133 appear to be pre‐accretionary (i.e., did not form via aqueous alteration), providing further evidence that some sulfide minerals formed prior to accretion of the CV chondrite parent body. The thin section studied contains two reduced CV3 lithologies, one of which appears to be more thermally metamorphosed, indicating that RBT 04133, like several other CV chondrites, is a breccia and thus experienced impact processing. Linear foliation of chondrules was not observed implying that RBT 04133 did not experience high velocity impacts that could lead to extensive thermal metamorphism. Presolar silicates are still present in RBT 04133, although presolar SiC grain abundances are very low, indicating that the progressive destruction or modification of presolar SiC grains begins before presolar silicate grains are completely unidentifiable.     

Eutrophication-Driven Shifts in Primary Producers in Shallow Coastal Systems: Implications for System Functional Change

Significant progress has been made recently towards a better understanding of the nature, causes, and consequences of anthropogenic eutrophication of shallow coastal systems. It is well established that, in pristine systems dominated by seagrasses, incipient to moderate eutrophication often leads to the replacement of seagrasses by phytoplankton and loose macroalgal mats as the dominant producers. However, less is known about the interactions between phytoplankton and loose macroalgae at intense eutrophication. Using a combination of original research and literature data, we provide support for the hypothesis that substantial macroalgal decline may occur at intense eutrophication due to severe water column shading. Our results suggest that such declines may be widespread. However, we also show that intense eutrophication is not always necessarily conducive to severe water column shading and large macroalgal declines, possibly due to short water residence time and/or elevated grazing on phytoplankton. Furthermore, we provide support to the hypothesis that the occurrence of hypoxic/anoxic conditions in eutrophication-driven shifts in dominant primary producer assemblages influences the nature and extent of functional change in the system. Focusing on the macroalgal blooms and seagrass decline that often occur at incipient/moderate eutrophication, we show the blooms have a positive effect on epifaunal abundance under well-oxygenated conditions, but a negative effect if pervasive anoxic/hypoxic conditions develop with the bloom. These findings provide support to prior suggestions that secondary productivity in shallow coastal systems may increase as seagrasses get replaced by loose macroalgal stands if the stands remain well oxygenated. In concert, our results contribute to an improvement of our current model of eutrophication of shallow coastal systems and suggest that further effort should be put on ascertaining the mechanisms that may prevent severe water column shading and large macroalgal decline at intense eutrophication, as well as thorough documentation of the impacts of anoxic/hypoxic conditions on system functionality at different stages of eutrophication.     

Conceptualizing leakage and storage contributions from long open interval wells in regional deep basin flow models

Deep basin aquifers are increasingly used in water‐stressed areas, though their potential for sustainable development is inhibited by overlying aquitards and limited recharge rates. Long open interval wells (LOIWs)—wells uncased through multiple hydrostratigraphic units—are present in many confined aquifer systems and can be an important mechanism for deep basin aquifers to receive flow across aquitards. LOIWs are a major control on flow in the deep Cambrian–Ordovician sandstone aquifers of the upper Midwest, USA, providing a source of artificial leakage from shallow bedrock aquifers and equilibrating head within the sandstone aquifers despite differential pumpage. Conceptualizing and quantifying this anthropogenic flow has long been a challenge for groundwater flow modellers, particularly on a regional scale. Synoptic measurements of active production wells and well completion data for northeast Illinois form the basis for a transient, head‐specified MODFLOW model that determines mass balance contributions to the region and estimates LOIW leakage to the aquifers. Using this insight, transient LOIW leakage was simulated using transiently changing K_V zones in a traditional, Q‐specified MODFLOW‐USG model, a novel approach that allows the K_V in a cell containing a LOIW to change transiently by use of the time‐variant materials (TVM) package. With this modification, we achieved a consistent calibration through time, averaging 19.9 m root mean squared error. This model indicates that artificial leakage via LOIWs contributed a minimum of 10–13% of total flow to the sandstone aquifers through the entire history of pumping, up to 50% of flow around 1930. Removal from storage exceeds 40% of flow during peak withdrawals, much of this flow sourced from units other than the primary sandstone aquifers via LOIWs. As such, understanding the timing and magnitude of LOIW leakage is essential for predicting future water availability in deep basin aquifers.     

The Lingering Effects of Neighborhood Appraisal: Evaluating Redlining's Legacy in Pittsburgh

Place-based classifications can create long-standing influences on neighborhood fortunes. Redlining is a classic example of these unintended effects. The Federal Home Loan Bank Board developed housing appraisal standards subsequently codified in Residential Security Maps. By georeferencing the 1937 map of Pittsburgh, we evaluated the spatial legacies of neighborhood appraisals. We identify persistent neighborhood conditions by comparing neighborhood evaluations with normalized census data from 1970 to 2000. Contemporary conditions correspond with security grades from the 1937 map. Concentrations of poverty, people of color, and vacancy persist in historically redlined areas. Concentrations of high incomes, home values, and homeownership persist elsewhere.     

Assessing Groundwater Depletion and Dynamics Using GRACE and InSAR: Potential and Limitations

In the last decade, remote sensing of the temporal variation of ground level and gravity has improved our understanding of groundwater dynamics and storage. Mass changes are measured by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, whereas ground deformation is measured by processing synthetic aperture radar satellites data using the InSAR (Interferometry of Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques. Both methods are complementary and offer different sensitivities to aquifer system processes. GRACE is sensitive to mass changes over large spatial scales (more than 100,000 km²). As such, it fails in providing groundwater storage change estimates at local or regional scales relevant to most aquifer systems, and at which most groundwater management schemes are applied. However, InSAR measures ground displacement due to aquifer response to fluid‐pressure changes. InSAR applications to groundwater depletion assessments are limited to aquifer systems susceptible to measurable deformation. Furthermore, the inversion of InSAR‐derived displacement maps into volume of depleted groundwater storage (both reversible and largely irreversible) is confounded by vertical and horizontal variability of sediment compressibility. During the last decade, both techniques have shown increasing interest in the scientific community to complement available in situ observations where they are insufficient. In this review, we present the theoretical and conceptual bases of each method, and present idealized scenarios to highlight the potential benefits and challenges of combining these techniques to remotely assess groundwater storage changes and other aspects of the dynamics of aquifer systems.     

Climate warming and the onset of salinization: Rapid changes in the limnology of two northern plains lakes

Water resources of the interior plains region of North America may be adversely affected by climate warming. The climate records of the Battleford region (west central Saskatchewan) indicate that mean annual temperatures have risen by 0.71 °C and mean annual minimum temperatures have risen by 1.03 °C from 1894 to 2007. Snowfall has also increased but total precipitation has not. Concomitant with periodic declines in precipitation, lake elevation has declined and salinity has increased in Jackfish and Murray lakes from 1938 to 2004. This long term increase in salinity is predicted to have caused an approximate 30% loss in diversity of macrobenthos. Phosphorus concentrations have also increased significantly, and Jackfish and Murray lakes would be classified as eutrophic by freshwater trophic indices. However, despite large increases in nutrients in both lakes, algal biomass has not increased and water transparency has not decreased. Although the total amount of planktonic biomass in Jackfish and Murray’s food web is similar to that of freshwater lakes, these lakes contain very low algal biomass (measured as chlorophyll a). In fact, such low algal biomass has not been previously observed in such dilute systems. The algal community in these shallow Prairie lakes appears to be very sensitive to slight changes in climate, and future climate driven increases in salinity of prairie lakes may result in large reductions in algal primary productivity.     

Vertical seismic profiling using distributed acoustic sensing with scatter-enhanced fibre-optic cable at the Cu–Au New Afton porphyry deposit,British Columbia,Canada

Wireline logs and vertical seismic profile data were acquired in two boreholes intersecting the main mineralized zone at the Cu–Au New Afton porphyry deposit, Canada, with the objectives of imaging lithological contacts, fault zones that may have acted as conduits that channelled the mineralization, and alteration zones. Log data provide physical rock properties for the main lithologies and alteration zones. Calliper logs reveal many faults and caved-in zones generally indicating rocks with low integrity at the borehole wall. The preponderance of these zones, as indicated by the logs, suggests that their response may dominate the seismic-reflection wavefield. Outside fault zones, compressional and shear-wave velocities exhibit significant variability due to porosity, the heterogeneity of volcanic fragmental rocks and alteration. Distributed acoustic sensing was used to acquire vertical seismic profiling data in the two boreholes surveyed with wireline logs. Straight and helically wound fibre-optic cables housed standard fibres and a fibre engineered to increase the intensity of backscattering at the distributed acoustic sensing interrogator. Standard and engineered optical fibres placed in the two boreholes were daisy-chained together to form two 5-km-long continuous fibres that were interrogated at once with two interrogators. A new generation of interrogator connected to the engineered fibres provided field data with lower noise level and higher signal-to-noise ratio. These data with higher signal-to-noise ratio from straight fibre-optic cable were processed and used for depth imaging. Depth images benefitted from new migration weights that account for the directional sensitivity of the straight fibre-optic cable and limit the extent of migration artefacts. Migration results show several reflectors with shallow dips to the northwest, some explained by faults intersecting the surveyed boreholes. The main sub-vertical lithological and alteration contacts at New Afton generated downgoing reflections that were not considered in the migration.     

Measuring channel planform change from image time series: A generalizable,spatially distributed,probabilistic method for quantifying uncertainty

Channels change in response to natural or anthropogenic fluctuations in streamflow and/or sediment supply and measurements of channel change are critical to many river management applications. Whereas repeated field surveys are costly and time-consuming, remote sensing can be used to detect channel change at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Repeat images have been widely used to measure long-term channel change, but these measurements are only significant if the magnitude of change exceeds the uncertainty. Existing methods for characterizing uncertainty have two important limitations. First, while the use of a spatially variable image co-registration error avoids the assumption that errors are spatially uniform, this type of error, as originally formulated, can only be applied to linear channel adjustments, which provide less information on channel change than polygons of erosion and deposition. Second, previous methods use a level-of-detection (LoD) threshold to remove non-significant measurements, which is problematic because real changes that occurred but were smaller than the LoD threshold would be removed. In this study, we present a new method of quantifying uncertainty associated with channel change based on probabilistic, spatially varying estimates of co-registration error and digitization uncertainty that obviates a LoD threshold. The spatially distributed probabilistic (SDP) method can be applied to both linear channel adjustments and polygons of erosion and deposition, making this the first uncertainty method generalizable to all metrics of channel change. Using a case study from the Yampa River, Colorado, we show that the SDP method reduced the magnitude of uncertainty and enabled us to detect smaller channel changes as significant. Additionally, the distributional information provided by the SDP method allowed us to report the magnitude of channel change with an appropriate level of confidence in cases where a simple LoD approach yielded an indeterminate result. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cumulative spatial impact layers: A novel multivariate spatio‐temporal analytical summarization tool

Scientific inquiry often requires analysis of multiple spatio‐temporal datasets, ranging in type and size, using complex multi‐step processes demanding an understanding of GIS theory and software. Cumulative spatial impact layers (CSIL) is a GIS‐based tool that summarizes spatio‐temporal datasets based on overlapping features and attributes. Leveraging a recursive quadtree method, and applying multiple additive frameworks, the CSIL tool allows users to analyze raster and vector datasets by calculating data, record, or attribute density. Providing an efficient and robust method for summarizing disparate, multi‐format, multi‐source geospatial data, CSIL addresses the need for a new integration approach and resulting geospatial product. The built‐in flexibility of the CSIL tool allows users to answer a range of spatially driven questions. Example applications are provided in this article to illustrate the versatility and variety of uses for this CSIL tool and method. Use cases include addressing regulatory decision‐making needs, economic modeling, and resource management. Performance reviews for each use case are also presented, demonstrating how CSIL provides a more efficient and robust approach to assess a range of multivariate spatial data for a variety of uses.