中国不同气候区基于火险气象指数的火险概率模型

目前,森林火险气象指数被广泛用于世界多个国家和地区.本研究目的为,基于火险气象指数,在中国不同气候区建立火险概率模型.本文在中国4个气候区,使用1998-2007年的气象及火灾数据,以位置变量、月份、海拔、加拿大、美国及澳大利亚的气象火险指数、植被指数为自变量,建立了半参数化Logistic回归模型,分析各自变量与着火概率及大火发生概率之间的非线性关系.在不同区域,模型所选自变量组合不同,这与各气候区不同气象及植被状况有关.通过模型模拟数据和实际观测数据散点图、火险概率图、大面积火灾数量预报曲线图,分析了模型的预测能力.研究结果表明,在4个气候区,海拔和NDVI指数对着火概率影响显著.模拟可燃物含水量的气象火险指数由于反映出了植被的季节变化特征,在中国北部成为火险概率模型中的重要因子.模拟土壤有机层可燃物状况的火险气象指数在中国南部(东南、西南)成为火险概率模型的重要因子.在中国4个气候区,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,可以有效模拟月时间尺度着火概率及大火发生概率,并为分析火险气象指数的预报能力提供了有效途径.本研究为进一步分析气候与火险之间的动态关系提供了理论基础.     

Unraveling complex exposure-burial histories of bedrock surfaces under ice sheets by integrating cosmogenic nuclide concentrations with climate proxy records

The production, accumulation, and decay of cosmogenic radionuclides in rock surfaces subjected to episodes of exposure and burial by ice results in nuclide concentrations in present day rock surfaces that can be used to address a variety of questions in glacial geomorphology and Quaternary geology. Of particular importance is the fact that these nuclide concentrations reflect both the timing of initial exposure of the rock surface and the chronology of subsequent exposure, burial, and erosion episodes. For landscapes where geomorphic evidence indicates that little/no erosion occurred, constraining the timing of initial exposure and the number of phases of exposure and burial that a rock surface has been subjected to is possible using multiple cosmogenic radionuclide concentrations combined with proxies for the timing and duration of periods of ice cover, such as ice core or marine isotope records. However, interpretations based on this approach require determination of an appropriate cutoff value to separate the proxy record into ice-free and ice-covered conditions and assessment of the sensitivity of the results to different cutoff values.We have developed a numerical model to evaluate variations in total exposure and burial durations as a function of different proxy records and cutoff values. This program is available at http://www.missouri.edu/~liyk/ClimateProxyCurve.zip. Initial results for sites in West Antarctica and northern Sweden show that the method provides a quick and robust way to derive best-fit cutoff values and chronologies of burial and exposure, and small changes in cutoff values can result in significant shifts in results. The method described here provides new insight into the interpretation and reliability of multiple nuclide samples. This approach also has the potential to provide improved constraints for ice sheet dynamics and landscape evolution, and a means to assess the sensitivity of calculated initial exposure dates to assumptions about ice sheet history.     

Complexity and non‐linearity in earth surface processes – concepts,methods and applications

Complexity has long been recognized and is increasingly becoming mainstream in geomorphology. However, the relative novelty of various concepts and techniques associated to it means that ambiguity continues to surround complexity. In this commentary, we present and discuss a variety of recent contributions that have the potential to help clarify issues and advance the use of complexity in geomorphology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The fetch effect on aeolian sediment transport on a sandy beach: a case study from Magilligan Strand,Northern Ireland

Experiments were conducted on Magilligan Strand, Northern Ireland, to assess the influence of the fetch effect on aeolian sediment transport. During each experiment surface sediments were uniformly dry and unhindered by vegetation or debris. The leading edge of erodible material was well defined, with the limit of wave up‐rush demarcating the wet–dry boundary; the work was conducted during low tides. A number of electronic and integrating traps were utilised, with two ultrasonic anemometers used to measure wind direction and velocity at 1 Hz. The combination of 1^o direction data and trap locations resulted in a range of fetch distances, from 2 to 26 m. Data integrated over 15‐minute intervals (corresponding to the integrating trap data) revealed a distinct trend for all the experiments. An initial rapid increase in the transport rate occurred over a short distance (4–9 m). This maximum transport rate was maintained for a further 5–6 m before a steady decay in the flux followed, as fetch distance increased. A measured reduction in wind speed (6–8%) across the beach suggests a negative feedback mechanism may be responsible for the diminishing transport rate: the saltating grains induce energy dissipation, thus reducing the capability of the wind to maintain transport. For one experiment, the presence of compact sediment patches may also have contributed to the reduction of the transport rate. The decay trend calls into question the utility of the fetch effect as an important parameter in aeolian studies that seek to understand sediment budgets of the foredune‐beach zone. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Proposal for an International Molybdenum Isotope Measurement Standard and Data Representation

Molybdenum isotopes are increasingly widely applied in Earth Sciences. They are primarily used to investigate the oxygenation of Earth's ocean and atmosphere. However, more and more fields of application are being developed, such as magmatic and hydrothermal processes, planetary sciences or the tracking of environmental pollution. Here, we present a proposal for a unifying presentation of Mo isotope ratios in the studies of mass‐dependent isotope fractionation. We suggest that the δ^98/95Mo of the NIST SRM 3134 be defined as +0.25‰. The rationale is that the vast majority of published data are presented relative to reference materials that are similar, but not identical, and that are all slightly lighter than NIST SRM 3134. Our proposed data presentation allows a direct first‐order comparison of almost all old data with future work while referring to an international measurement standard. In particular, canonical δ^98/95Mo values such as +2.3‰ for seawater and ?0.7‰ for marine Fe–Mn precipitates can be kept for discussion. As recent publications show that the ocean molybdenum isotope signature is homogeneous, the IAPSO ocean water standard or any other open ocean water sample is suggested as a secondary measurement standard, with a defined δ^98/95Mo value of +2.34 ± 0.10‰ (2s).     

Crystallization rates of shock melts in three martian basalts: Experimental simulation with implications for meteoroid dimensions

Dynamic crystallization experiments have been performed on synthetic glasses representative of shock-generated melts observed in Los Angeles, Sayh al Uhaymir 150 and Dar al Gani 476 martian basalts. On the basis of qualitative (texture) and quantitative (fractal analysis) results, we show that melt pockets in Los Angeles cooled at a rate of 1040-1560 °C/h. Sayh al Uhaymir 150 and Dar al Gani 476 melt pockets cooled at 780 °C/h. Conductive cooling models, for a range of meteoroid diameters (10-50 cm), indicate that the minimum meteoroid diameter was small, on the order of 10-15 cm and that melt pockets cooled from post-shock temperatures within minutes. Our results also have bearing on shock implanted martian atmospheric components because it is during cooling that the melt pockets have the potential to lose gases. Modeling of argon diffusion in a spherical melt pocket indicates that during cooling and quench crystallization ∼4-60% of trapped martian atmospheric argon may be lost from the melt pocket through diffusive transport.     

Martian regolith in Elephant Moraine 79001 shock melts? Evidence from major element composition and sulfur speciation

Shock veins and melt pockets in Lithology A of Martian meteorite Elephant Moraine (EETA) 79001 have been investigated using electron microprobe (EM) analysis, petrography and X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) spectroscopy to determine elemental abundances and sulfur speciation (S²⁻ versus S⁶⁺). The results constrain the materials that melted to form the shock glasses and identify the source of their high sulfur abundances. The XANES spectra for EETA79001 glasses show a sharp peak at 2.471 keV characteristic of crystalline sulfides and a broad peak centered at 2.477 keV similar to that obtained for sulfide-saturated glass standards analyzed in this study. Sulfate peaks at 2.482 keV were not observed. Bulk compositions of EETA79001 shock melts were estimated by averaging defocused EM analyses. Vein and melt pocket glasses are enriched in Al, Ca, Na and S, and depleted in Fe, Mg and Cr compared to the whole rock. Petrographic observations show preferential melting and mobilization of plagioclase and pyrrhotite associated with melt pocket and vein margins, contributing to the enrichments. Estimates of shock melt bulk compositions obtained from glass analyses are biased towards Fe- and Mg- depletions because, in general, basaltic melts produced from groundmass minerals (plagioclase and clinopyroxene) will quench to a glass, whereas ultramafic melts produced from olivine and low-Ca pyroxene megacrysts crystallize during the quench. We also note that the bulk composition of the shock melt pocket cannot be determined from the average composition of the glass but must also include the crystals that grew from the melt - pyroxene (En_72-75Fs_20-21Wo_5-7) and olivine (Fo_75-80). Reconstruction of glass + crystal analyses gives a bulk composition for the melt pocket that approaches that of lithology A of the meteorite, reflecting bulk melting of everything except xenolith chromite.Our results show that EETA79001 shock veins and melt pockets represent local mineral melts formed by shock impedance contrasts, which can account for the observed compositional anomalies compared to the whole rock sample. The observation that melts produced during shock commonly deviate from the bulk composition of the host rock has been well documented from chondrites, rocks from terrestrial impact structures and other Martian meteorites. The bulk composition of shock melts reflects the proportions of minerals melted; large melt pockets encompass more minerals and approach the whole rock whereas small melt pockets and thin veins reflect local mineralogy. In the latter, the modal abundance of sulfide globules may reach up to 15 vol%. We conclude the shock melt pockets in EETA79001 lithology A contain no significant proportion of Martian regolith.     

Impacts of summer warming on the energy and water balance of wetland tundra

Measurements, made at a high subarctic, maritime, wetland tundra site, are presented for three different growing seasons. These are divided into hot-dry, normal-dry and normal-wet years and the behaviour of their surface energy and water balances is examined within the framework of a combination model. For periods of comparable energy availability, evapotranspiration during hot-dry conditions can be larger than during cooler and wetter periods. This results from small stomatal resistance in the sparse canopy of well-rooted sedges, and from the ability of peat soils to supply water under conditions of large atmospheric demand. This demand is expressed in terms of the vapour pressure deficit and it counteracts the large surface resistances which develop during dry periods. In many respects, the energy balance of a subarctic wetland tundra is comparable to observations and models for temperate agricultural and forest lands, in spite of the fact that the soils are organic, the vegetation canopy is sparse and there is continuous permafrost. A dry year promotes deeper thaw depths in the permafrost soils, during the growing season, than does a wet one. This is due to larger ground heat fluxes and larger soil thermal diffusivities. We concluded that maritime, wetland tundra, growing on peat soils, displays feedback mechanisms, which can offset the effects of moisture stress, caused by summer climate warming of a similar magnitude to that simulated by General Circulation Models for a 2 × CO₂ scenario.