Evaluation of burst liability in kimberlite using support vector machine

Due to the complex mechanisms of rockburst, there is no current effective method to reliably predict these events. A statistical learning method, support vector machine (SVM), is employed in this paper for kimberlite burst prediction. Four indicators \(\sigma_{\theta } ,\sigma_{c} ,\sigma_{t} ,W_{\text{ET}}\) are chosen as input indices for the SVM, which is trained using 108 groups of rockburst cases from around the world. Data uniformization is used to avoid negative impact of differing dimensions across the original data. Parameter optimization is embedded in the training process of the SVM to achieve optimized predictive ability. After training and optimization, the SVM reaches an accuracy of 95% in rock burst prediction for validation samples. The constructed SVM is then employed in kimberlite burst liability evaluation. The model indicated a moderate burst risk, which matches observed instances of rockburst at a diamond mine in north Canada. The SVM method ignores the focus on rockburst mechanisms, instead relying on representative indicators to develop a predictive model through self-learning. The prediction results show an excellent accuracy, which means this method has a potential application in rockburst prediction.     

Morphologic adjustments of actively evolving highly curved neck cutoffs

Neck cutoffs and their resultant oxbow lakes are important and prominent features of riverine landscapes. Detailed field-based research focusing on the morphologic evolution of neck cutoffs is currently insufficient to fully characterize cutoff evolution. High-resolution bathymetric data were collected over 3 years for the purpose of determining channel morphology and morphologic change on three actively evolving neck cutoffs. Results indicate the following general trends in morphologic adjustment: (1) a longitudinal bar in the upstream meander limb that develops near the entrance to the abandoned bend; (2) a deep scour hole in the downstream meander limb immediately downstream of the cutoff channel; (3) erosion of the bank opposite the cutoff in the downstream meander limb; (4) a cutoff bar in the downstream meander limb at the junction corner of the cutoff channel and the downstream meander limb; and (5) perching of the exit of the abandoned bend above the cutoff channel due to channel bed incision. The results presented herein were used to develop a conceptual model that depicts the morphologic evolution of highly curving neck cutoffs. The findings of this research are combined with recent analyses of the three-dimensional flow structure through neck cutoffs to provide a mechanistic explanation for the morphodynamics of neck cutoffs. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Event-scale floodplain accretion revealed through tree-ring analysis of buried plains cottonwoods,Powder River,MT, USA

Six plains cottonwoods along the axis of a meander were excavated to determine if dendrochronology could identify the year and location of germination and date past overbank sedimentation events. Samples from all excavated trees showed clear anatomical changes associated with burial, including increased vessel size, decreased definition of annual ring boundaries, and decreased ring widths. Some of these burial signatures were created by deposition of only a few centimeters of sediment, and most burial events were detected by multiple samples from the same tree. Four of the trees germinated at or near the upper surfaces of bar deposits, while two germinated within thin overbank deposits draped over bar deposits, indicating that germination is closely associated with bars. Dates and inferred thicknesses of overbank sedimentation events are consistent with repeated topographic surveys and data obtained from cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) analyses. However, the record of overbank sedimentation extracted from the trees does not entirely reflect the history of past peak discharges documented by stream gaging, largely because individual trees are progressively less likely to be flooded through time as the river migrates farther away. Germination dates and locations closely track past positions of the river channel. Germination elevations and the elevations of the tops of point bars appear to be decreasing with time as the bend migrates, implying vertical incision by Powder River at a rate of 7.1 ± 4.3 mm/yr. The rate of floodplain growth determined by elevation changes decreases progressively through time, ultimately reaching an apparent plateau after 0.8–1.3 m of vertical accretion. While similar patterns of vertical accretion have previously been interpreted as resulting from decreasing flood probability with increasing floodplain elevation, distance from the channel is also a first-order control on vertical floodplain growth. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bank erosion in an Andean páramo river system: Implications for hydro-development and carbon dynamics in the neotropical Andes

The páramo of the Northern Andes provide critically important ecosystem services to the Northern Andean region in the form of water provisioning and carbon sequestration, both of which are a result of the páramo?s organic-rich soils. Little is known, however, about the hydro-geomorphic characteristics of the rivers that drain these ecosystems. With impending plans for widespread hydro-development and increasing implementation of carbon-sequestering compensation for ecosystem services programs in the region it is imperative that we develop a thorough understanding of the hydrogeomorphic role that rivers play in this unique ecosystem. The objective of this study was to quantify bank erosion along an Amazonian headwater stream draining a small, relatively undisturbed páramo catchment to gain a better understanding of the natural erosion regime and the resulting sediment contributions from this unique ecosystem. This study implemented a combination of field, laboratory, and Geographic Information Systems techniques to quantify bank erosion rates and determine a bank erosion sediment yield from the Ningar River, a small páramo catchment(22.7 km~2) located in the eastern Andean cordillera of Ecuador. Results show that bank erosion rates range from 3.0 to ≥ 390.0 mm/yr, are highly episodic, and yield at least 487 tons of sediment annually to the Ningar River. These results imply that 1) páramo ecosystems substantially contribute to the sediment load of the Amazon River basin; 2) bank erosion is a potentially significant flux component of basin-scale carbon cycles in páramo ecosystems; and 3) hydrologic alteration campaigns(dam building) will likely critically alter these contributions and concomitantly disconnect a critical source of sediment and nutrients to downstream ecosystems.     

Incorporating Geography,Contingently: Geographic Pedagogies in a University Without a Geography Department

This article investigates efforts by a small regional university without a geography department to incorporate geography into its general education curriculum as part of a “quality enhancement” process mandated by its accreditor. Drawing on interviews and surveys of students and faculty, we highlight lessons learned that may be useful for institutions considering similar changes—including the importance of valuing disciplinary expertise, addressing faculty contingency, and engaging with existing research on geographic education and pedagogy. The initiative, while limited in significant ways, also suggests opportunities for advocates of geography to engage with agendas around general education reform and accreditation.     

Excavating eurypterids,giant arthropods of the Palaeozoic

The eurypterids of the Silurian Bertie Group of North America are some of the most striking fossils known, with their dark organic cuticle outlined against a background of light coloured dolomite. Eurypterus is the most abundant genus but the pterygotids with their long grasping claws have fired our imagination as giant extinct predators. Large complete specimens are rarely found—the specimens are dominated by moulted exoskeletons that often disarticulate—but a giant that emerged from the rock more than 50 years ago is being prepared to go on display.     

Occurrence and persistence of water level/salinity states and the ecological impacts for St Lucia estuarine lake,South Africa

The St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa forms part of a World Heritage Site and is an important local source of biodiversity. Like many estuarine systems worldwide, St Lucia has experienced significant anthropogenic impacts over the past century. Abstractions have decreased fresh water inflows from the lake catchments by about 20%. Furthermore the Mfolozi river, which previously shared a common inlet with St Lucia and contributed additional fresh water during droughts, was diverted from the system in 1952 because of its high silt loads. The separated St Lucia mouth was subsequently kept artificially open until the onset of a dry period in 2002 when the mouth was left to close naturally. These changes and the current drought have placed the system under severe stress with unprecedented hypersaline conditions coupled with desiccation of large portions of the lake. Long-term simulations of the water and salt balance were used to estimate the occurrence and persistence of water levels and salinities for different management scenarios. The risks of desiccation and hyper-salinity were assessed for each case. The results show that the configuration of the Mfolozi/St Lucia inlets plays a key role in the physicochemical environment of the system. Without the Mfolozi link desiccation (of about 50% of the lake area) would occur for 32% of the time for an average duration of 15 months. Artificially maintaining an open mouth would decrease the chance of desiccation but salinities would exceed 65 about 17% of the time. Restoring the Mfolozi link would reduce the occurrence of both desiccation and hypersaline conditions and a mostly open mouth state would occur naturally. Integrating these modeled scenarios with observed biological responses due to changes in salinity and water depth suggests that large long-term changes in the biological structure can be expected in the different management scenarios.     

The PCRaster Software and Course Materials for Teaching Numerical Modelling in the Environmental Sciences

Teaching numerical modelling in the environmental sciences not only needs good software and course material but also an understanding of how to program the models in the computer. Conventional environmental modelling procedures require computer science and programming skills, which may detract from the important understanding of the environmental processes involved. An alternative strategy is to build a generic toolkit or modelling language that operates with concepts and operations that are familiar to the environmental scientist. PCRaster is such a spatio-temporal environmental modelling language developed at Utrecht University, the Netherlands. It is used for teaching modelling in classrooms and over the Web (distance learning) at three levels: (1) explaining environmental processes and models, where models with a fixed structure of model equations are evaluated by changing model parameters, (2) teaching model construction, where students learn to program spatial and temporal models with the language, and (3) teaching all phases of scientific modelling related to field research. So far, we have received positive responses to these courses, largely because the software provides a set of easily learned functions matching the conceptual thought processes of a geoscientist that can be used at all levels of teaching.