Comparison of methods for quantifying consumer spending on retail using publicly available data

Data and estimates on the spatial distribution of consumer spending form the foundation of retail location analysis and location-allocation spatial interaction models. The presented research presents and compares four methods to estimate consumer spending that combine different levels of detail in household spending data across multiple levels of household aggregation (i.e. census units). Results demonstrate that these methods, which use publicly available census data, can capture a substantial amount of reported sales. Furthermore, comparison of the best method with the de facto industry standard for business data in Canada shows a strong correlation (R2 > 0.85) across space and is within 10% of aggregate industry-derived spending estimate. Analysis of the spending data across space finds that the majority of spending occurs in census metropolitan areas with high spending clusters that offer unique opportunities for retail location. We interrogate the socio-demographic characteristics of the population in these high spending clusters and find that only a few variables are required to explain a large proportion of the variance in consumer spending. The overarching outcome of the presented research is that small-to-medium businesses, planners, and municipalities do not need expensive proprietary data to estimate and predict consumer spending and market demand.     

Cyclic development of large,complex, calcite dendrite crystals in the Clinton travertine,Interior British Columbia,Canada

Bands of large (up to 4 cm long) three-dimensional crystallographic dendrites form the terrace fronts in an old travertine mound exposed near Clinton, British Columbia. The dendrites, with their long axes perpendicular to the terrace front, are characterized by numerous levels of branching. Each branch is formed of multitudes of skeletal rhombs, four- and six(?)-sided bipyramidal crystals, or prismatic hexagonal crystals that are precisely aligned along crystallographic precepts. Although individual branches are formed of one type of subcrystal, neighbouring branches may be formed of different subcrystal types.Highly supersaturated waters that were generated by rapid CO₂ degassing of the spring water during its turbulent flow over the steep terrace fronts probably drove dendrite precipitation. The presence of growth lines indicates that growth was episodic. Type I growth lines probably formed annually in response to seasonal climate changes whereas Type II growth lines, which formed less frequently, may reflect changes in the flow velocity and/or flow patterns of the spring waters.Early diagenetic modification of the dendrites involved crystal face enlargement, cements formed of trigonal prisms or needle-fiber crystals, microbial infestation that mediated substrate dissolution, and/or deposition of detrital calcite crystals that formed in the water column. Much of the diagenetic modification may have taken place during the periods when the dendrites had temporarily stopped growing.The dendrites in the Clinton travertine are an excellent example of complex, episodic calcite crystal growth that was extensively modified by early diagenetic processes in a surface environment. The same spring waters from which the dendrites were precipitated mediated much of the early diagenesis.     

Sources and biological fractionation of Silicon isotopes in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

Silicon isotopes in dissolved silicic acid were measured in the upper four kilometers between 4°N and 3°S latitude at 110°W longitude in the eastern Equatorial Pacific. Silicon isotopes became progressively heavier with silicic acid depletion of surface water as expected from biological fractionation. The value of ε estimated by applying a steady-state isotope fractionation model to data from all stations between 4°N and 3°S was −0.77 ± 0.12‰ (std. err.). When the analysis was restricted to those stations whose temperature and salinity profiles indicated that they were directly influenced by upwelling of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), the resulting value of ε was −1.08 ± 0.27‰ (std. err.) similar to the value established in culture studies (−1.1‰). When the non steady state Rayleigh model was applied to the same restricted data set the resulting value of ε was significantly more positive, −0.61 ± 0.16‰ (std. err.). To the extent that the equatorial system approximates a steady state these results support a value of −1.1‰ for the fractionation factor for isotopes of Si in the sea. Without the assumption of steady state the value of ε can only be constrained to be between −0.6 and −1.1‰. Silicic acid in Equatorial Pacific Deep Water below 2000 m had a near constant δ³⁰Si of +1.32 ± 0.05‰. That value is significantly more positive than obtained for North Pacific Deep Water at similar depths at stations to the northwest of our study area (0.9-1.0‰) and it is slightly less positive than new measures of the δ³⁰Si of silicic acid from the silicic acid plume centered over the Cascadia basin in the Northeast Pacific (Si(OH)₄ > 180  μM, δ³⁰Si = +1.46 ± 0.12‰ (SD, n = 4). We show that the data from the equator and Cascadia basin fit a general trend of increasing δ³⁰Si(OH)₄ with increasing silicic acid concentration in the deep sea, but that the isotope values from the Northeast Pacific are anomalously light. The observed level of variation in the silicon isotope composition of deep waters from this single ocean basin is considerably larger than that predicted by current models based on fractionation during opal formation with no isotope effect during dissolution. Confirmation of such high variability in deep water δ³⁰Si(OH)₄ within individual ocean basins will require reassessment of the mechanisms controlling the distribution of isotopes of silicon in the sea.     

Microbial ammonia oxidation and enhanced nitrogen cycling in the Endeavour hydrothermal plume

Ammonium was injected from the subseafloor hydrothermal system at the Endeavour Segment, Juan de Fuca Ridge, into the deep-sea water column resulting in an -rich (?177 nM) neutrally buoyant hydrothermal plume. This was quickly removed by both autotrophic ammonia oxidation and assimilation. The former accounted for at least 93% of total net removal, with its maximum rate in the neutrally buoyant plume (?53 nM d⁻¹) up to 10-fold that in background deep water. Ammonia oxidation in this plume potentially added 26-130 mg into the deep-sea water column. This oxidation process was heavily influenced by the presence of organic-rich particles, with which ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) were often associated (40-68%). AOB contributed up to 10.8% of the total microbial communities within the plume, and might constitute a novel lineage of β-proteobacterial AOB based on 16S rRNA and amoA phylogenetic analyses. Meanwhile, assimilation rates were also substantially enhanced within the neutrally buoyant plume (?26.4 nM d⁻¹) and accounted for at least 47% of total net removal rates. The combined oxidation and assimilation rates always exceeded total net removal rates, suggesting active in situregeneration rates of at least an order of magnitude greater than the particulate nitrogen flux from the euphotic zone. Ammonia oxidation is responsible for turnover of 0.7-13 days and is probably the predominant in situ organic carbon production process (0.6-13 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) at early stages of Endeavour neutrally buoyant plumes.     

Returns from a speculation

A reply to a recent paper by Setten.     

Visibility Analysis with the Multiscale Implicit TIN

Visibility analysis is now a key function of many geographical information systems. It is also one of the most contentious tools, as it is notoriously prone to error. The paper will demonstrate the versatility of the Multiscale Implicit Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) for the application of intervisibility analysis at multiple resolutions. This approach allows for the integration of three-dimensional (3D) topographic features with the terrain surface. The multiscale TINs are derived from generalising digital contours at a variety of lateral tolerances. The models' performances are evaluated from an extensive field study undertaken in the South Wales valleys. Results suggest that the accuracy of intervisibility analysis is very dependent upon the availability of good quality 3D topographic data. In our study, such data were shown to improve visibility performance by more than 44% over its bare-earth TIN equivalent. Interestingly, generalisation of the TINs had very little effect on visibility performance. In addition, a Monte Carlo approach to sensitivity analysis was found to be detrimental to the accuracy of visibility prediction in the full terrain and topographic models. However, this probable approach can improve intervisibility performance by up to 18% on a bare-earth TIN. The range of these visibility modelling scenarios demonstrate the flexibility of the Multiscale Implicit TIN for digital surface modelling.     

Annual cycle of radionuclide contamination on tide-washed pasture in the Mersey Estuary, NW England

The radionuclide burden of vegetation comprising a tide-washed pasture at Ince Marsh in the Mersey Estuary, U.K., derives mainly from adhered external particulates originating as suspended sediments in estuarine water. Radionuclide concentrations are dominated by the growth cycle of the vegetation, with the highest winter levels of contamination activity an order of magnitude greater than the lowest levels in mid-summer. A secondary effect due to sediment transfer during periods of severe flooding produces subsidiary features on this dominant seasonal profile. Radionuclide concentrations on vegetation are in the range¹³⁷Cs=8–191,¹³⁴Cs=0.3–0.9,²⁴¹Am=0.6–46,²³⁸Pu=0.1–1.5, and^239/240Pu=0.8–44 Bq kg⁻¹. These ranges reflect the relative concentrations of radionuclides in estuarine sediment (¹³⁷Cs=615,²⁴¹Am=202, and^239/240Pu=104 Bq kg⁻¹) rather than the values in filtered estuary water (¹³⁷Cs=0.4,²⁴¹Am=0.001, and^239/240Pu=0.001 Bq 1⁻¹). Median K_d values for these radionuclide species are Cs=1,400, Am=200,000, and Pu=80,000 1 kg⁻¹).     

Teacher's Aide: Modeling Hole-Effect Variograms of Lithology-Indicator Variables

Common variogram models, such as spherical or exponential functions, increase monotonically with increasing lag distance. On the other hand, a hole-effect variogram typically exhibits sinusoidal waves that form peaks and troughs, thereby conveying the cyclicity of the underlying phenomenon. In order to incorporate this cyclicity into a stochastic simulation, hole effects in the experimental variogram must be fitted appropriately. In this paper, we recommend use of several multiplicative-composite variogram models to fit hole-effect experimental variograms. These consist of a cosine function to provide wavelength and phase of cyclicity, multiplied by a monotonic model (e.g., spherical) to attenuate amplitudes of the cyclical peaks and troughs. These composite models can successfully fit experimental lithology-indicator variograms that contain a range of cyclicities, although experimental variograms with poor cyclicity require special considerations.     

The portrayal of the Australian monsoon equatorial monsoon shear line by GCMs: enhanced greenhouse scenario implications

A critical test of a general circulation model is its performance on the regional scale. In this paper we examine the summer climatology of the CSIRO4 (4-layer) climate model over the Australian tropical region. The benchmark for the study is the positioning of the monsoon equatorial trough. We compare the CSIRO4 model climatology with the climatologies from the GFDL and GISS models and we report on the sensitivity of the position of the monsoon shear line and the strength of the monsoon westerly winds to the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The model results show that under the greenhouse scenario the monsoon is strengthened, but the average location of the monsoon shear line is not sensitive to the doubling of CO₂. Offprint requests to: BF Ryan