The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective

The latest iteration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uncertainty guidance is simpler and easier to use than the previous version. However, its primary focus remains assessing “what is at risk” under climate change, thus is most suitable for dealing with the scientific uncertainties in Working Group I and part of Working Group II findings. I distinguish between tame and complex risks, arguing that the guidance is most suited to assessing tame risks. Climate change is a complex risk, and as such as can be divided into idealized, calculated and perceived risks. While science has claims to objectivity, risk has a specific value component: when measuring gain and loss, calculated risks compete with risky options to manage those risks. The IPCC is charged with calculating risk (IPCC 2007, p22) but the communication of key findings takes place in an environment of competing perceived risks. Recommendations for managing this complex environment include separating scientific and risk-based findings, treating uncertainties for each separately; strengthening the philosophical basis of uncertainty management; application of a methodical scientific research program; clearly communicating competing findings, especially in the social sciences; and application of multiple frame to policy-relevant findings as reflected in the literature.     

Co-management and the co-production of knowledge: Learning to adapt in Canada's Arctic

Co-management institutional arrangements have an important role in creating conditions for social learning and adaptation in a rapidly changing Arctic environment, although how that works in practice has not been clearly articulated. This paper draws on three co-management cases from the Canadian Arctic to examine the role of knowledge co-production as an institutional trigger or mechanism to enable learning and adapting. Experience with knowledge co-production across the three cases is variable but outcomes illustrate how co-management actors are learning to learn through uncertainty and environmental change, or learning to be adaptive. Policy implications of this analysis are highlighted and include the importance of a long-term commitment to institution building, an enabling policy environment to sustain difficult social processes associated with knowledge co-production, and the value of diverse modes of communication, deliberation and social interaction.     

Spatial patterns of chemical contamination (metals, PAHs, PCBs, PCDDs/PCDFS) in sediments of a non-industrialized but densely populated coral atoll/small island state (Bermuda)

There is a recognized dearth of standard environmental quality data in the wider Caribbean area, especially on coral atolls/small island states. Extensive surveys of sediment contamination (n = 109 samples) in Bermuda revealed a wide spectrum of environmental quality. Zinc and especially copper levels were elevated at some locations, associated with boating (antifouling paints and boatyard discharges). Mercury contamination was surprisingly prevalent, with total levels as high as 12 mg kg⁻¹ DW, although methyl mercury levels were quite low. PAH, PCB and PCDD/PCDF contamination was detected a several hotspots associated with road run-off, a marine landfill, and a former US Naval annexe. NOAA sediment quality guidelines were exceeded at several locations, indicating biological effects are possible, or at some locations probable. Overall, and despite lack of industrialization, anthropogenic chemicals in sediments of the atoll presented a risk to benthic biodiversity at a number of hotspots suggesting a need for sediment management strategies.     

Fault Roughness at Seismogenic Depths from LIDAR and Photogrammetric Analysis

Fault surface roughness is a principal factor influencing earthquake mechanics, and particularly rupture initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, little data currently exist on fault surfaces at seismogenic depths. Here, we investigate the roughness of slip surfaces from the seismogenic strike-slip Gole Larghe Fault Zone, exhumed from ca. 10 km depth. The fault zone exploited pre-existing joints and is hosted in granitoid rocks of the Adamello batholith (Italian Alps). Individual seismogenic slip surfaces generally show a first phase of cataclasite production, and a second phase with beautifully preserved pseudotachylytes of variable thickness. We determined the geometry of fault traces over almost five orders of magnitude using terrestrial laser-scanning (LIDAR, ca. 500 to <1 m scale), and 3D mosaics of high-resolution rectified digital photographs (10 m to ca. 1 mm scale). LIDAR scans and photomosaics were georeferenced in 3D using a Differential Global Positioning System, allowing detailed multiscale reconstruction of fault traces in Gocad^®. The combination of LIDAR and high-resolution photos has the advantage, compared with classical LIDAR-only surveys, that the spatial resolution of rectified photographs can be very high (up to 0.2 mm/pixel in this study), allowing for detailed outcrop characterization. Fourier power spectrum analysis of the fault traces revealed a self-affine behaviour over 3–5 orders of magnitude, with Hurst exponents ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Parameters from Fourier analysis have been used to reconstruct synthetic 3D fault surfaces with an equivalent roughness by means of 2D Fourier synthesis. Roughness of pre-existing joints is in a typical range for this kind of structure. Roughness of faults at small scale (1 m to 1 mm) shows a clear genetic relationship with the roughness of precursor joints, and some anisotropy in the self-affine Hurst exponent. Roughness of faults at scales larger than net slip (>1–10 m) is not anisotropic and less evolved than at smaller scales. These observations are consistent with an evolution of roughness, due to fault surface processes, that takes place only at scales smaller or comparable to the observed net slip. Differences in roughness evolution between shallow and deeper faults, the latter showing evidences of seismic activity, are interpreted as the result of different weakening versus induration processes, which also result in localization versus delocalization of deformation in the fault zone. From a methodological point of view, the technique used here is advantageous over direct measurements of exposed fault surfaces in that it preserves, in cross-section, all of the structures which contribute to fault roughness, and removes any subjectivity introduced by the need to distinguish roughness of original slip surfaces from roughness induced by secondary weathering processes. Moreover, offsets can be measured by means of suitable markers and fault rocks are preserved, hence their thickness, composition and structural features can be characterised, providing an integrated dataset which sheds new light on mechanisms of roughness evolution with slip and concomitant fault rock production.     

Design and application of a direct-push vadose zone gravel permeameter

A borehole permeameter is well suited for testing saturated hydraulic conductivity (K(sat)) at specific depths in the vadose zone. Most applications of the method involve fine-grained soils that allow hand auguring of test holes and require a small water reservoir to maintain a constant head. In non-cohesive gravels, hand-dug test holes are difficult to excavate, holes are prone to collapse, and large volumes of water are necessary to maintain a constant head for the duration of the test. For coarse alluvial gravels, a direct-push steel permeameter was designed to place a slotted pipe at a specific sampling depth. Measurements can be made at successive depths at the same location. A 3790 L (1000 gallons) trailer-mounted water tank maintained a constant head in the permeameter. Head in the portable tank was measured with a pressure transducer and flow was calculated based on a volumetric rating curve. A U.S. Bureau of Reclamation analytical method was utilized to calculate K(sat). Measurements with the permeameter at a field site were similar to those reported from falling-head tests.     

The Zn abundance and isotopic composition of diatom frustules,a proxy for Zn availability in ocean surface seawater

We have developed cleaning methods for extracting diatomopal from bulk marine sediment samples, for measurement of both zinc (Zn) abundance and isotope composition. This cleaning technique was then applied to a set of Holocene core-top samples from the Southern Ocean. The measured δ⁶⁶Zn (reported relative to the JMC_Lyon standard) and Zn/Si ratios from the Southern Ocean diatom_opal samples range from 0.7 to 1.5‰, and from 14 to 0.9 μmol/mol, respectively. The Zn abundance and isotope composition data show a clear correlation with opal burial rates and other oceanographic parameters. In common with previous work, we interpret the systematic changes in the Zn/Si ratio to be linked to the variability in the concentrations of bioavailable Zn in the ambient surface seawater where the diatom opal is formed. This variability is likely to be primarily controlled by the degree to which Zn is taken up into phytoplankton biomass. The observed systematic pattern in the δ⁶⁶Zn compositions of the diatom_opal core-top samples is, similarly, likely to reflect changes in the δ⁶⁶Zn composition of the ambient Zn in the surface waters above the core-top sites, which is progressively driven towards isotopically heavier values by preferential incorporation of the lighter isotopes into phytoplankton organic material. Thus, the systematic relationship between Zn isotopes and abundance observed in the core-top diatom_opal samples suggests a potential tool for investigating the biogeochemical cycling of Zn in the past surface ocean for down-core diatom_opal material. In this respect, it may be possible to test hypotheses that attribute variations in atmospheric CO₂ on glacial–interglacial timescales to the degree to which trace metals limited primary productivity in HNLC zones.     

Hydroxyl stretching in phyllosilicates at high pressures and temperatures: an infrared spectroscopic study

The hydroxyl stretching frequencies of four phyllosilicates have been measured at high pressures and temperatures using an externally heated diamond-anvil cell and synchrotron infrared spectroscopy. Spectra were measured up to 26, 31, 21 and 8 GPa at room temperature for samples of talc, pyrophyllite, muscovite and 10-Å phase, respectively. Spectra were also measured in the range 273–500 K at ambient pressure for all samples and at 8–9 GPa for talc and pyrophyllite. The frequency of the Mg₃OH band in talc increases with pressure due to the absence of hydrogen bonding. The different orientation of the hydroxyl group in pyrophyllite and muscovite leads to hydrogen bonding and a decrease in the frequency of the Al₂OH band with pressure. 10-Å phase is approximately equivalent to talc with the addition of interlayer H₂O. In a spectrum of a sample synthesised for 143 h, two hydroxyl stretching bands are clearly resolved on compression. One is the same as the Mg₃OH band in talc, indicating the presence of intra-layer hydroxyl in a talc-like environment with no hydrogen bonding. The other, which separates from the talc-like band at 1 GPa, is associated with intra-layer hydroxyl that is hydrogen bonded to interlayer H₂O. There are equivalent bands in high-pressure spectra of a sample of deuterated 10-Å phase, synthesised for 400 h. This sample shows a greater extent of hydrogen bonding at ambient pressure than the 143 h sample. For all of the phases studied, increasing temperature leads to a decrease in frequency for every hydroxyl stretching vibration, both at low and high pressures. The shifts in frequency with temperature are an order of magnitude greater than the shifts with pressure when normalised to previously measured structural parameters.     

An Equation of State for Hypersaline Water in Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA

Great Salt Lake (GSL) is one of the largest and most saline lakes in the world. In order to accurately model limnological processes in GSL, hydrodynamic calculations require the precise estimation of water density (ρ) under a variety of environmental conditions. An equation of state was developed with water samples collected from GSL to estimate density as a function of salinity and water temperature. The ρ of water samples from the south arm of GSL was measured as a function of temperature ranging from 278 to 323 degrees Kelvin (^oK) and conductivity salinities ranging from 23 to 182 g L⁻¹ using an Anton Paar density meter. These results have been used to develop the following equation of state for GSL (σ = ± 0.32 kg m⁻³):

Anthropogenic impacts on the water and salt budgets of St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa

Lake St Lucia in South Africa is part of a UNESCO World Heritage site and a Ramsar wetland of international importance. Like many coastal wetlands worldwide, anthropogenic activities including catchment land-use changes, water diversions/abstractions, and manipulation of the mouth state have significantly affected its functioning over the past century. Questions concerning its sustainability have motivated a re-evaluation of management decisions made in the past and of options for the future. A model for the water and salt budgets has therefore been used to investigate “what if” scenarios in terms of past anthropogenic interventions. In particular, simulations allow us to evaluate the effects of diverting the Mfolozi river from St Lucia on the functioning of the system and on the occurrence of various water level/salinity states that drive the biological functioning of the ecosystem. In the past, when the St Lucia estuary and the Mfolozi river had a combined inlet, the mouth was predominantly open. The lake had relatively stable water levels but variable salinities that increased during dry conditions due to evaporative losses and saltwater inflows from the sea. If the mouth closed, the Mfolozi flow was diverted into the lake which reduced salinities and maintained or increased water levels. Simulations indicate that without a link to the Mfolozi the lake system would naturally have a mainly closed inlet with lower average salinities but more variable water levels. During dry conditions water levels would reduce and result in desiccation of large areas of the lake as has recently occurred. We conclude that the artificial separation of the St Lucia and Mfolozi inlets underpins the most significant impacts on the water & salt budget of the lake and that its reversal is key to the sustainability of the system.