A Prospective on Zelinsky's Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition

Wilbur Zelinsky's 1971 paper in Geographical Review entitled the “Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition” was both forward‐looking and offered innovative ideas regarding human geographic mobility. One of the most interesting aspects of the paper was a set of predictions for mobility in a “future superadvanced society”. Many of these predictions have now come to pass, including a general decline in international and internal migration and residential change, the increasing regulation of migration ‐ especially internally, and the possibility that the widespread adoption of information and communication technologies has impacted human geographic mobility. Hence, this essay looks at the mobility transition not as an obsolete frame of reference but as a prescient, pliable, and adaptable framework which not only informs the study of human geographic mobility today but also, perhaps, even into the future.     

Exposure ages from relict lateral moraines overridden by the Fennoscandian ice sheet

Lateral moraines constructed along west to east sloping outlet glaciers from mountain centred, pre-last glacial maximum (LGM) ice fields of limited extent remain largely preserved in the northern Swedish landscape despite overriding by continental ice sheets, most recently during the last glacial. From field evidence, including geomorphological relationships and a detailed weathering profile including a buried soil, we have identified seven such lateral moraines that were overridden by the expansion and growth of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of 19 boulders from the crests of these moraines, combined with the field evidence, are correlated to episodes of moraine stabilisation, Pleistocene surface weathering, and glacial overriding. The last deglaciation event dominates the exposure ages, with ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al data derived from 15 moraine boulders indicating regional deglaciation 9600 ± 200 yr ago. This is the most robust numerical age for the final deglaciation of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. The older apparent exposure ages of the remaining boulders (14,600-26,400 yr) can be explained by cosmogenic nuclide inheritance from previous exposure of the moraine crests during the last glacial cycle. Their potential exposure history, based on local glacial chronologies, indicates that the current moraine morphologies formed at the latest during marine oxygen isotope stage 5. Although numerous deglaciation ages were obtained, this study demonstrates that numerical ages need to be treated with caution and assessed in light of the geomorphological evidence indicating moraines are not necessarily formed by the event that dominates the cosmogenic nuclide data.     

西天山喇嘛苏成矿斑岩年代学、地球化学特征与成因初探

近东西走向的天山造山带位于中亚造山带或阿尔泰构造拼贴体的最南端,是哈萨克斯坦和塔里木板块的汇聚地带,也是一个重要的铜一金等多金属成矿带[1].天山造山带是在古生代由塔里木和西伯利亚板块之间的古亚洲洋的消减闭合,塔里木、准噶尔、哈萨克斯坦等板块的俯冲-碰撞-增生所形成[2].     

Anthropogenic impacts on the water and salt budgets of St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa

Lake St Lucia in South Africa is part of a UNESCO World Heritage site and a Ramsar wetland of international importance. Like many coastal wetlands worldwide, anthropogenic activities including catchment land-use changes, water diversions/abstractions, and manipulation of the mouth state have significantly affected its functioning over the past century. Questions concerning its sustainability have motivated a re-evaluation of management decisions made in the past and of options for the future. A model for the water and salt budgets has therefore been used to investigate “what if” scenarios in terms of past anthropogenic interventions. In particular, simulations allow us to evaluate the effects of diverting the Mfolozi river from St Lucia on the functioning of the system and on the occurrence of various water level/salinity states that drive the biological functioning of the ecosystem. In the past, when the St Lucia estuary and the Mfolozi river had a combined inlet, the mouth was predominantly open. The lake had relatively stable water levels but variable salinities that increased during dry conditions due to evaporative losses and saltwater inflows from the sea. If the mouth closed, the Mfolozi flow was diverted into the lake which reduced salinities and maintained or increased water levels. Simulations indicate that without a link to the Mfolozi the lake system would naturally have a mainly closed inlet with lower average salinities but more variable water levels. During dry conditions water levels would reduce and result in desiccation of large areas of the lake as has recently occurred. We conclude that the artificial separation of the St Lucia and Mfolozi inlets underpins the most significant impacts on the water & salt budget of the lake and that its reversal is key to the sustainability of the system.     

Influence of tectonic structures on the Hope Slide, British Columbia, Canada

The Hope Slide, which occurred on January 9, 1965, involved an estimated 47-Mm³ of meta-volcanics and intrusive rocks. Previous workers reported the presence of tectonic structures (faults and shear zones) along the failure surface at the Hope Slide. These tectonic features were investigated in detail to assess their effects on rock-mass quality and the related implications for slope stability. This paper integrates basic field and laboratory concepts from structural and engineering geology. Subdividing the failure area into structural domains allowed distinct discontinuity sets to be associated with specific tectonic structures. The Geological Strength Index (GSI) was used to estimate the rock-mass damage related to the tectonic structures. Low GSI values were seen to outline tectonic damage zones. Point-load tests were used to characterise the compressive strength of rocks adjacent to the tectonic structures. Strength anisotropy, tentatively attributed to damage caused by a large shear zone, was observed in greenstone samples. Seepage zones along the failure surface were observed preferentially along shallow discontinuities that dipped downslope and in rock masses of good quality (GSI > 40). An alternative morphology of the slope failure is proposed by distinguishing between the extent of the surficial damage due to the rock-slope failure and the zone of failed material (depletion zone). For the first time, a kinematic mechanism for the Hope Slide is proposed, based on a preliminary 3-dimensional block model. A pre-1965 DEM was produced from estimates of material lost and gained as reported by previous workers. The pre-1965 DEM revealed that the tectonic structures recognised during fieldwork bounded the material that failed in the 1965 event.     

Rock fall hazard control along a section of railway based on quantified risk

Rock falls represent a large percentage of landslide-related hazards reported by Canadian railways in mountainous terrain. A 54.7?km-long section of railway through the Canadian Cordillera is examined that experiences, on average, 18 rock falls each year. An approach for rock fall hazard management is developed based on quantified risk. The approach focuses on defining railway operation procedures (freight train operations and track maintenance) that comply with quantified risks. Weather-based criteria that define periods when rock falls are more likely to occur along the study area are examined. These criteria are used herein to reduce exposure to rock falls and reduce their consequences. Several freight train operation strategies are proposed that comply with a tolerable level of risk adopted in this study for illustrative purposes. The approach provides a simple, flexible and practical strategy for railway operations that can be regularly adopted by the operators, and that is based on a more comprehensive assessment of quantified risk.     

First cosmogenic 10Be age constraint on the timing of Younger Dryas glaciation and ice cap thickness,western Scottish Highlands

We use cosmogenic ¹⁰Be surface exposure age techniques at a locality close to Rannoch Moor, western Scottish Highlands, in order to establish the age and chronology of its most recent glaciation. Glacial erratics and an in situ bedrock quartz vein sampled from this site—the summit of Beinn Inverveigh—have yielded zero‐erosion exposure ages of 12.9 ± 1.5 ka to 11.6 ± 1.0 ka, implying complete ice cover of the mountain during the Younger Dryas, or Loch Lomond Stadial. These results fit closely with published ¹⁴C dates that bracket the maximum (lateral) extent of ice cap outlet glaciers, and are the first internally consistent ages to specifically address this period of glaciation in Scotland. Furthermore, the dates imply that previous palaeoglaciological reconstructions for this area may have underestimated both the thickness of the former ice cap and, by implication, its volume. © British Geological Survey/Natural Environment Research Council copyright 2007. Reproduced with the permission of BGS/NERC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaporation effects on the formation of martian gullies

In order to investigate the formation of martian gullies and the stability of fluids on Mars, we examined about 120 gully images. Twelve HiRISE images contained a sufficient number of Transverse Aeolian Ridges (TARs) associated with the gullies to make the following measurements: overall gully length, length of the alcove, channel and apron, and we also measured the frequency of nearby TARs. Six of the 12 images examined showed a statistically significant negative correlation between overall gully length (alcove, channel and apron length) and TAR frequency. Previous experimental work from our group has shown that at temperatures below ∼200 K, evaporation rate increases by about an order of magnitude as wind speed increases from 0 to ∼15 m/s. Thus the negative correlations we observe between gully length and dune frequency can be explained by formation at temperatures below ∼200 K where wind speed/evaporation is a factor governing gully length. In these cases evaporation of the fluid carving the gully was a constraint on their dimensions. Cases where there is no correlation between gully length and TAR frequency, can be explained by formation at temperatures >200 K. The temperatures are consistent with Global Circulation Model and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data for these latitudes. The temperatures suggested by these trends are consistent with the fluid responsible for gully formation being a strong brine, such as Fe₂(SO₄)₃ which has a eutectic temperature of ∼200 K. We also find that formation timescales for gullies are 10⁵-10⁶ years.