Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models

Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence. These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location, an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically, we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches.     

Local co-operation, ethnic diversity and state territoriality – The case of Haparanda and Tornio on the Sweden – Finland border

The neighbouring towns of Haparanda and Tornio, separated only by a narrow strip of grass and wetland, are divided by the only inhabited land boundary between Finland and Sweden in the southern part of the Torne River. The population represents four different groups in relation to linguistic and cultural backgrounds. In the daily lives of the inhabitants, the state boundary is probably of less significance than linguistic, social and ‘ethnic’ differences. On the local government level there is a strong will to unite forces to make the total area a viable region in spite of its peripheral location, but state legislation makes co-ordination difficult. This may be seen as a necessity, but in the daily lives of the populations, the state boundary defines an area of unequal access, sometimes working in favour of and sometimes barring contacts and co-operation. The media consumption reflects a clear ‘national’ interest with a strong local bias. In their attitudes, Finnish speakers and bilinguals show a greater appreciation of ‘the other’ than unilingual Swedes. This may reflect the actual possibility space (reach) in the local area. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

System-wide submerged aquatic vegetation model for Chesapeake Bay

A predictive model of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) biomass is coupled to a eutrophication model of Chesapeake Bay. Domain of the model includes the mainstem of the bay as well as tidal portions of major embayments and tributaries. Three SAV communities are modeled: ZOSTERA, RUPPIA, and FRESHWATER. The model successfully computes the spatial distribution and abundance of SAV for the period 1985–1994. Spatial distribution is primarily determined by computed light attenuation. Sensivitity analysis to reductions in nutrient and solids loads indicates nutrient controls will enhance abundance primarily in areas that presently support SAV. Restoration of SAV to areas in which it does not presently exist requires solids controls, alone or in combination with nutrient controls. For regions in which SAV populations exist at the refuge level or greater, improvements in SAV abundance are expected within 2 to 10 years of load reductions. For regions in which no refuge population exists, recovery time is unpredictable and will depend on propagule supply.     

Evolution of Pangea: paleomagnetic constraints from the Southern Alps, Italy

A new early Late Triassic paleopole for Adria has been obtained from the Val Sabbia Sandstone in the Southern Alps. As Early Permian and Jurassic-Cretaceous paleomagnetic data from para-autochthonous regions of Adria such as the Southern Alps are consistent with ‘African’ APWPs[1–2], paleomagnetic data from this region can be used to bolster the West Gondwana APWP in the poorly known Late Permian-Triassic time interval. The Southern Alpine paleopoles are integrated with the West Gondwana and Laurussia APWPs of Van der Voo [1] and used to generate a tectonic model for the evolution of Pangea. The Early Permian overall mean paleopole for West Gondwana and Adria, in conjunction with the coeval Laurussia paleopole, support Pangea B of Morel and Irving [3]. The Late Permian/Early Triassic and the Middle/Late Triassic paleopoles from Adria and Laurussia support Pangea A-2 of Van der Voo and French [4]. The phase of transcurrent motion between Laurasia and Gondwana[5] that caused the Pangea B to A-2 transition occurred essentially in the Permian (at the end of Variscan orogeny) with an average relative velocity of approximately 10 cm/yr. Finally, the Late Triassic/Early Jurassic paleopoles from West Gondwana and Laurussia agree with Pangea A-1 of Bullard et al. [6], the widely accepted Pangea configuration at the time of the Jurassic breakup.     

Zooplankton dynamics in an intertidal salt-marsh basin

We determined tidal, diel (day-night), and diurnal (day to day) patterns of occurrence for the summer zooplankton assemblage in an intertidal salt marsh basin at North Inlet Estuary, South Carolina. In one time series, 153 μm pump and 365 μm net collections were made every 1–2 h during four consecutive tidal cycles. Taxonomic composition remained unchanged throughout most of the 48-h period, but densities and proportionalities of individual taxa were highly variable. Recurring patterns of abundance were observed and taxon-specific relationships with the tidal and diel cycles were indicated. Zooplankton were not uniformly distributed within flooding-ebbing water masses and distributions could not be explained by simple passive advection with the tides. Diel differences in densities of copepods and bivalves resulted from behavioral responses to changing light conditions. Large pulses of crab and shrimp larvae originating from nocturnal hatching events within the intertidal basin exited but did not return during the next flood tide. Higher densities of postlarval decapods on flood tides indicated settlement and recruitment to the shallow basin. In a second time series, replicated collections of the 153 μm and 365 μm assemblages were made during the daytime ebb tide every 1–3 d from May through October 1991 to determine relationships between diurnal changes in depth, salinity, and temperature and zooplankton composition and abundance. Diurnal variations in densities and proportionalities were less than those observed during the 48-h study and patterns were not regular. For most taxa, relationships between depth and abundance were the same in both time series. During periods of reduced salinity, densities of copepods,Uca zoeae, and barnacle nauplii decreased and densities ofUca megalopae andPenaeus postlarvae increased. However, zoeae emerged and postlarvae recruited throughout the 5-mo period, indicating that considerable flexibility in responses and tolerances existed within the populations. The diversity of life-history strategies and behavioral adaptations found among the zooplankton assures continuous occupation of flooded intertidal habitats. We suspect that the evolution and maintenance of temporally staggered recurring patterns of occurrence results in reductions in the competition for resources.     

Volcanic geology and eruption frequency,lower east rift zone of Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

Detailed geologic mapping and radiocarbon dating of tholeiitic basalts covering about 275 km² on the lower east rift zone (LERZ) and adjoining flanks of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, show that at least 112 separate eruptions have occurred during the past 2360 years. Eruptive products include spatter ramparts and cones, a shield, two extensive lithic-rich tuff deposits, aa and pahoehoe flows, and three littoral cones. Areal coverage, number of eruptions and average dormant interval estimates in years for the five age groups assigned are: (I) historic, i.e. A D 1790 and younger: 25%, 5, 42.75; (II) 200–400 years old: 50%, 15, 14.3: (III) 400–750 years old: 20%, 54, 6.6; (IV) 750–1500 years old: 5%, 37, 20.8; (V) 1500–3000 years old: <1%, 1, unknown. At least 4.5–6 km³ of tholeiitic basalt have been erupted from the LERZ during the past 1500 years. Estimated volumes of the exposed products of individual eruptions range from a few tens of cubic meters for older units in small kipukas to as much as 0.4 km³ for the heiheiahulu shield. The average dormant interval has been about 13.6 years during the past 1500 years. The most recent eruption occurred in 1961, and the area may be overdue for its next eruption. However, eruptive activity will not resume on the LERZ until either the dike feeding the current eruption on the middle east rift zone extends farther down rift, or a new dike, unrelated to the current eruption, extends into the LERZ.     

Lower palaeozoic and precambrian petroleum source rocks and the coalification path of alginite

Organic-rich samples derived from a Middle Cambrian Formation in the Georgina Basin, and from the Middle Proterozoic of the McArthur Basin in northern and central Australia, yielded alginite ranging from immature oil shale material to overmature residue. A maturation scale has been developed based on the thermal evolution of alginite as determined from reflectance and fluorescence. The coalification path of alginite is marked by jumps in contrast to the linear path of wood-derived vitrinite. Six zones have been recognised, ranging from undermature (zone I), through the mature (zones II/III), followed by a stable stage of no change (zone IV) to the overmature (zones V and VI). The onset of oil generation in alginite as evident from the present study is at 0.3% R_{o Alg.} and is expressed in a change of fluorescence from yellow to brown, and a coalification jump from 0.3 to 0.6% R_o of Alg. In many boreholes zone III can be distinguished between 0.6 and 0.8% R_o of Alg. where subsequent oil generation occurs. Zones II and III represent the oil window.A zone of little or no change designated zone IV, at of alginite follows zones II/III. A marked coalification jump characterises zone V, where a pronounced change in reflectance occurs to >1.0% R_{o Alg.}, signifying peak gas generation. The border of oil preservation lies at the transition of zone V and VI, at 1.6% R_{o Alg.} In zone VI gas generation only occurs.Comparison of reflectance results with experimental and geochemical pyrolysis data supports high activation energies for hydrocarbon generation from alginite, and therefore a later onset of oil generation than other liptinite macerals (i.e. cutinite, exinite, resinite) as well as a narrow oil window.Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) confirms that alginite does not go through a distinct intermediate stage but that the percentage of unreacted organic matter decreases as maturation proceeds. A clear distinction can be made in TEM between immature alginite, alginite after oil generation, and alginite residue following gas generation. Alginite beyond 1.6% R_o acquires very high densities and the appearance of inertinite in TEM.Bitumens/pyrobitumens make a pronounced contribution to the organic matter throughout the basins and have been shown to effect pyrolysis results by suppressing T_max. The bitumens/pyrobitumens have been divided into four groups, based on their reflectance and morphology, which in turn appears to be an expression of their genetic history. Their significance is in aiding the understanding of the basins' thermal history, and the timing of oil and gas generation.