CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center??s (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200?km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2?s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.     

Defining an absolute reference frame for ‘clumped’ isotope studies of CO2

We present a revised approach for standardizing and reporting analyses of multiply substituted isotopologues of CO₂ (i.e., ‘clumped’ isotopic species, especially the mass-47 isotopologues). Our approach standardizes such data to an absolute reference frame based on theoretical predictions of the abundances of multiply-substituted isotopologues in gaseous CO₂ at thermodynamic equilibrium. This reference frame is preferred over an inter-laboratory calibration of carbonates because it enables all laboratories measuring mass 47 CO₂ to use a common scale that is tied directly to theoretical predictions of clumping in CO₂, regardless of the laboratory’s primary research field (carbonate thermometry or CO₂ biogeochemistry); it explicitly accounts for mass spectrometric artifacts rather than convolving (and potentially confusing) them with chemical fractionations associated with sample preparation; and it is based on a thermodynamic equilibrium that can be experimentally established in any suitably equipped laboratory using commonly available materials.By analyzing CO₂ gases that have been subjected to established laboratory procedures known to promote isotopic equilibrium (i.e., heated gases and water-equilibrated CO₂), and by reference to thermodynamic predictions of equilibrium isotopic distributions, it is possible to construct an empirical transfer function that is applicable to data with unknown clumped isotope signatures. This transfer function empirically accounts for the fragmentation and recombination reactions that occur in electron impact ionization sources and other mass spectrometric artifacts. We describe the protocol necessary to construct such a reference frame, the method for converting gases with unknown clumped isotope compositions to this reference frame, and suggest a protocol for ensuring that all reported isotopic compositions (e.g., Δ₄₇ values; [Eiler and Schauble, 2004] and [Eiler, 2007]) can be compared among different laboratories and instruments, independent of laboratory-specific analytical or methodological differences. We then discuss the use of intra-laboratory secondary reference frames (e.g., based on carbonate standards) that can be more easily used to track the evolution of each laboratory’s empirical transfer function. Finally, we show inter-laboratory reproducibility on the order of ±0.010 (1σ) for four carbonate standards, and present revised paleotemperature scales that should be used to convert carbonate clumped isotope signatures to temperature when using the absolute reference frame described here. Even when using the reference frame, small discrepancies remain between two previously published synthetic carbonate calibrations. We discuss possible reasons for these discrepancies, and highlight the need for additional low temperature (<15 °C) synthetic carbonate experiments.     

Reduction of structural Fe(III) in nontronite by methanogen Methanosarcina barkeri

Clay minerals and methanogens are ubiquitous and co-exist in anoxic environments, yet it is unclear whether methanogens are able to reduce structural Fe(III) in clay minerals. In this study, the ability of methanogen Methanosarcina barkeri to reduce structural Fe(III) in iron-rich smectite (nontronite NAu-2) and the relationship between iron reduction and methanogenesis were investigated. Bioreduction experiments were conducted in growth medium using three types of substrate: H₂/CO₂, methanol, and acetate. Time course methane production and hydrogen consumption were measured by gas chromatography. M. barkeri was able to reduce structural Fe(III) in NAu-2 with H₂/CO₂ and methanol as substrate, but not with acetate. The extent of bioreduction, as measured by the 1,10-phenanthroline method, was 7-13% with H₂/CO₂ as substrate, depending on nontronite concentration (5-10 g/L). The extent was higher when methanol was used as a substrate, reaching 25-33%. Methanogenesis was inhibited by Fe(III) reduction in the H₂/CO₂ culture, but enhanced when methanol was used. High charge smectite and biogenic silica formed as a result of bioreduction. Our results suggest that methanogens may play an important role in biogeochemical cycling of iron in clay minerals and may have important implications for the global methane budget.     

Stabilization of arsenic-contaminated mine tailings using natural and calcined oyster shells

Natural oyster shells (NOS) and calcined oyster shells (COS) were used to immobilize arsenic (As) from contaminated mine tailings. In addition, a blend of Portland cement (PC)/cement kiln dust (CKD) was used as a stabilizing agent. The Korean Standard Test (KST) method (1 N HCl extraction) was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the treatment. The experimental results showed that COS effectively immobilized As in treated mine tailings. Specifically, an As concentration less than 1 mg L⁻¹ was obtained following COS treatment at 25 and 30 wt%. However, all the samples subjected to NOS treatments failed the Korean warning standard of 1.2 mg L⁻¹ after 28 days of curing. All of the COS-PC treatments were successful meeting the Korean warning standard after 7 days of curing. However, the PC-only treatment failed to meet the Korean warning standard. Similarly, the CKD-only treatment was failed to meet the Korean warning standard after 7 days of curing. However, the COS-CKD treatment showed that when the COS content was greater than 20 wt%, less than 1 mg L⁻¹ of As leachability was obtained. Scanning electron microscopy–energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM–EDX) showed needle-like and torpedo-like Ca–As phases in the COS-treated samples suggesting that As was strongly associated with Ca and O. X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) analyses confirmed that As(V) was prevalent in the tailings and that there were no changes in As speciation following NOS or COS treatment.     

The RHESSI Imaging Concept

The Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) observes solar hard X-rays and gamma-rays from 3 keV to 17 MeV with spatial resolution as high as 2.3 arc sec. Instead of focusing optics, imaging is based on nine rotating modulation collimators that time-modulate the incident flux as the spacecraft rotates. Starting from the arrival time of individual photons, ground-based software then uses the modulated signals to reconstruct images of the source. The purpose of this paper is to convey both an intuitive feel and the mathematical basis for this imaging process. Following a review of the relevant hardware, the imaging principles and the basic back-projection method are described, along with their relation to Fourier transforms. Several specific algorithms (Clean, MEM, Pixons and Forward-Fitting) applicable to RHESSI imaging are briefly described. The characteristic strengths and weaknesses of this type of imaging are summarized.     

Evaluation of the snow‐covered area data product from MODIS

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flown on board the Terra Earth Observing System (EOS) platform launched in December 1999, produces a snow‐covered area (SCA) product. This product is expected to be of better quality than SCA products based on operational satellites (notably GOES and AVHRR), due both to improved spectral resolution and higher spatial resolution of the MODIS instrument. The gridded MODIS SCA product was compared with the SCA product produced and distributed by the National Weather Service National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) for 46 selected days over the Columbia River basin and 32 days over the Missouri River basin during winter and spring of 2000–01. Snow presence or absence was inferred from ground observations of snow depth at 1330 stations in the Missouri River basin and 762 stations in the Columbia River basin, and was compared with the presence/absence classification for the corresponding pixels in the MODIS and NOHRSC SCA products. On average, the MODIS SCA images classified fewer pixels as cloud than NOHRSC, the effect of which was that 15% more of the Columbia basin area could be classified as to presence–absence of snow, while overall there was a statistically insignificant difference over the Missouri basin. Of the pixels classified as cloud free, MODIS misclassified 4% and 5% fewer overall (for the Columbia and Missouri basins respectively) than did the NOHRSC product. When segregated by vegetation cover, forested areas had the greatest differences in fraction of cloud cover reported by the two SCA products, with MODIS classifying 13% and 17% less of the images as cloud for the Missouri and Columbia basins respectively. These differences are particularly important in the Columbia River basin, 39% of which is forested. The ability of MODIS to classify significantly greater amounts of snow in the presence of cloud in more topographically complex, forested, and snow‐dominated areas of these two basins provides valuable information for hydrologic prediction. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineralogical interpretation of reflectance spectra of Eros from NEAR near‐infrared spectrometer low phase flyby

Abstract— High signal‐to‐noise near‐infrared spectrometer (NIS) spectra acquired during the low phase flyby of the near‐Earth asteroid rendezvous (NEAR) mission to 433 Eros are analyzed to determine mineral chemistry and proportions of mafic silicates across the asteroid's surface at 2.68 × 5.50 km spatial resolution. Spectral band parameters are derived, and compared with those of laboratory samples of known mineral composition, grain size distribution and terrestrial, meteoritic and lunar pyroxene spectral properties. The NIS derived band parameters are consistent with ordinary chondrite meteorites. We invoke the presence of a clinopyroxene component in the spectra, which is consistent with ordinary chondrite mineralogy and/or some degree of partial melting of ordinary chondritic material. Spectra measured across the surface of Eros can reveal small but real spectral variations. Most relative spectra are uniform to within 1–2%. Some areas suggest compositional variations of a few percent. Spectral slope variations of a few percent are seen indicating a non‐uniform distribution of materials affecting the slope parameter but with no resolved absorption bands. We find no correlation of slope with viewing geometry or compositional variation. The band parameter values do not consistently indicate a specific ordinary chondrite class but Eros is definitely undifferentiated with possible compositional variations of no more than 1–2%.     

Variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1972–2000

This study investigated variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in regions covering high‐latitude and high‐elevation land areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The annual snow‐cover cycle was examined with respect to the week of the last‐observed snow cover in spring (WLS), the week of the first‐observed snow cover in autumn (WFS), and the duration of the snow‐free period (DSF). The analysis used a 29‐year time‐series (1972–2000) of weekly, visible‐band satellite observations of Northern Hemisphere snow cover from NOAA with corrections applied by D. Robinson of Rutgers University Climate Laboratory. Substantial interannual variability was observed in WLS, WFS and DSF (standard deviations of 0·8–1·1, 0·7–0·9 and 1·0–1·4 weeks, respectively), which is related directly to interannual variability in snow‐cover area in the regions and time periods of snow‐cover transition. Over the nearly three‐decade study period, WLS shifted earlier by 3–5 days/decade as determined by linear regression analysis. The observed shifts in the annual snow‐cover cycle underlie a significant trend toward a longer annual snow‐free period. The DSF increased by 5–6 days/decade over the study period, primarily as a result of earlier snow cover disappearance in spring. The observed trends are consistent with reported trends in the timing and length of the active growing season as determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness and the atmospheric CO₂ record. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.