Comparison of approaches to spatial estimation in a bivariate context

The problem of estimating a regionalized variable in the presence of other secondary variables is encountered in spatial investigations. Given a context in which the secondary variable is known everywhere (or can be estimated with great precision), different estimation methods are compared: regression, regression with residual simple kriging, kriging, simple kriging with a mean obtained by regression, kriging with an external drift, and cokriging. The study focuses on 19 pairs of regionalized variables from five different datasets representing different domains (geochemical, environmental, geotechnical). The methods are compared by cross-validation using the mean absolute error as criterion. For correlations between the principal and secondary variable under 0.4, similar results are obtained using kriging and cokriging, and these methods are superior slightly to the other approaches in terms of minimizing estimation error. For correlations greater than 0.4, cokriging generally performs better than other methods, with a reduction in mean absolute errors that can reach 46% when there is a high degree of correlation between the variables. Kriging with an external drift or kriging the residuals of a regression (SKR) are almost as precise as cokriging.     

Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: the Big-Brother Experiment

A methodology is developed for testing the downscaling ability of nested regional climate models (RCMs). The proposed methodology, nick-named the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE), is based on a "perfect-prognosis" approach and hence does not suffer from model errors nor from limitations in observed climatologies. The BBE consists in first establishing a reference climate by performing a large-domain high-resolution RCM simulation: this simulation is called the Big Brother. This reference simulation is then degraded by filtering short scales that are unresolved in today's global objective analyses (OA) and/or global climate models (GCMs) when integrated for climate projections. This filtered reference is then used to drive the same nested RCM (called the Little Brother), integrated at the same high-resolution as the Big Brother, but over a smaller domain that is embedded in the Big-Brother domain. The climate statistics of the Little Brother are then compared with those of the Big Brother over the Little-Brother domain. Differences can thus be attributed unambiguously to errors associated with the nesting and downscaling technique, and not to model errors nor to observation limitations. The results of the BBE applied to a one-winter-month simulation over eastern North America at 45-km grid-spacing resolution show that the one-way nesting strategy has skill in downscaling large-scale information to the regional scales. The time mean and variability of fine-scale features in a number of fields, such as sea level pressure, 975-hPa temperature and precipitation are successfully reproduced, particularly over regions where small-scale surface forcings are strong. Over other regions such as the ocean and away from the surface, the small-scale reproducibility is more difficult to achieve.     

Agrometeorological Research and Applications Needed to Prepare Agriculture and Forestry to 21st Century Climate Change

The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where malnutrition is a common threat). This can be accomplished with a series of new environmental management practices suited to the new climatic order.     

Recent changes in estuarine benthic and suprabenthic communities resulting from the development of harbour infrastructure

Using a Before/During/After sampling protocol, the effects of the Le Havre harbour extension, which was started at the end of 2001, on the macrobenthic and suprabenthic communities in the eastern Bay of Seine (English Channel) were examined. As the construction phase has not yet been completed, the results presented here reflect only the data collected before and during the operations (September 2000 and 2002 for benthos sampling and March 2001, September 2001, October 2002 and March 2003 for suprabenthos sampling). Although bio-sedimentary changes did occur at the mouth of the Seine river, an analysis of benthic assemblages reveals that the dredging and construction operations do not seem to have influenced assemblage structure or the spatial distribution of organisms. Comparisons of the suprabenthic assemblages at each sampling date indicate that seasonal dynamics was mainly responsible for determining species distribution. We conclude that, 1 year into the harbour management plan, the observed changes in benthic and suprabenthic assemblage abundance do not exceed the range of spatial variability that exists naturally in the Seine estuary. Despite this compensatory actions designed to protect the aquatic habitats and to preserve a sustainable and healthy ecosystem have been added to the infrastructure development plan.     

Assessing multidecadal runoff (1970–2010) using regional hydrological modelling under data and water scarcity conditions in Peruvian Pacific catchments

In a context of water scarcity in Peruvian Pacific catchments as a crucial issue for Peru, added to the paucity of data availability, we propose a methodology that provides new perspectives for freshwater availability estimation as a base reference for unimpaired conditions. Under those considerations, a regional discharge of 709 m³/s to the Pacific Ocean is estimated with a significant increasing trend of about 43 m³/s per decade over the 1970 – 2010 period. To represent the multidecadal behaviour of freshwater runoff along the region, a regional runoff analysis is proposed based on hydrological modelling at annual and monthly time step for unimpaired conditions over the whole 1970 – 2010 period. Differential Split‐Sample Tests are used to assess the hydrological modelling robustness of the GR1A and GR2M conceptual lumped models, showing a satisfactory transposability from dry to wet years inside the thresholds defined for Nash–Sutcliffe and bias criteria. This allowed relating physical catchment characteristics with calibrated and validated model parameters, thus offering a regional perspective for dryland conditions in the study area (e.g., the anticlockwise hysteresis relationship found for seasonal precipitation–runoff relationship) as well as the impacts of climate variability and catchment characteristics.     

Unpacking some of the linkages between uncertainties in observational data and the simulation of different hydrological processes using the Pitman model in the data scarce Zambezi River basin

The main objective of this study was to use an uncertainty version of a widely used monthly time step, semi-distributed model (the Pitman model) to explore the equifinalities in the way in which the main hydrological processes are simulated and any identifiable linkages with uncertainties in the available observational data. The study area is the Zambezi River basin and 17 gauged sub-basins have been included in the analyses. Unfortunately, it is not generally possible to quantify some of the observational uncertainties in such a data scarce area and mostly we are limited to identifying where these data are clearly deficient (i.e., erroneous or non-representative). The overall conclusion is that the equifinalities in the model are hugely dominant in terms of the uncertainties in the relative occurrence of different runoff generating processes, although water use uncertainties in the semi-arid parts of the basin can contribute to these uncertainties. The identification of landscape features that suggest the occurrence of saturation excess surface runoff provides some information to constrain the model. Improved independent estimates of groundwater recharge is also identified as a key source of observational data that would help a great deal in constraining the model parameter space and therefore reducing some of the model equifinality.     

Effect of radioactive pollution on the biodiversity of marine benthic ecosystems of the Russian Arctic shelf

This study is the result of many years of research on the ecology of the marine benthos of Russian Arctic seas. We used samples collected at various locations from the Russian continental shelf during 1993–2009 as the basis of our study. Our main aim was to analyze the spatial distribution of taxonomic and quantitative characteristics of the meiobenthos (small bottom-dwelling animals, 0.1–3.0 mm in size). Statistical analysis of the data revealed that the factors determining the spatial distribution of meiobenthic organisms under natural conditions, and conditions impacted upon by human activity, were salinity, water depth, hydrocarbons, heavy metals and radiocaesium volumetric activity. The possible use of the meiobenthos as a tool for environmental impact assessment is proposed and discussed on the level of higher taxa.     

The fresnel interferometric imager

The Fresnel Interferometric Imager has been proposed to the European Space Agency (ESA) Cosmic Vision plan as a class L mission. This mission addresses several themes of the CV Plan: Exoplanet study, Matter in extreme conditions, and The Universe taking shape. This paper is an abridged version of the original ESA proposal. We have removed most of the technical and financial issues, to concentrate on the instrumental design and astrophysical missions. The instrument proposed is an ultra-lightweight telescope, featuring a novel optical concept based on diffraction focussing. It yields high dynamic range images, while releasing constraints on positioning and manufacturing of the main optical elements. This concept should open the way to very large apertures in space. In this two spacecraft formation-flying instrument, one spacecraft holds the focussing element: the Fresnel interferometric array; the other spacecraft holds the field optics, focal instrumentation, and detectors. The Fresnel array proposed here is a 3.6 ×3.6 m square opaque foil punched with 10⁵ to 10⁶ void “subapertures”. Focusing is achieved with no other optical element: the shape and positioning of the subapertures (holes in the foil) is responsible for beam combining by diffraction, and 5% to 10% of the total incident light ends up into a sharp focus. The consequence of this high number of subapertures is high dynamic range images. In addition, as it uses only a combination of vacuum and opaque material, this focussing method is potentially efficient over a very broad wavelength domain. The focal length of such diffractive focussing devices is wavelength dependent. However, this can be corrected. We have tested optically the efficiency of the chromatism correction on artificial sources (500 < λ < 750 nm): the images are diffraction limited, and the dynamic range measured on an artificial double source reaches 6.2 10^− 6. We have also validated numerical simulation algorithms for larger Fresnel interferometric arrays. These simulations yield a dynamic range (rejection factor) close to 10^− 8 for arrays such as the 3.6 m one we propose. A dynamic range of 10^− 8 allows detection of objects at contrasts as high as than 10^− 9 in most of the field. The astrophysical applications cover many objects in the IR, visible an UV domains. Examples are presented, taking advantage of the high angular resolution and dynamic range capabilities of this concept.     

Adakite-like volcanism of Ecuador: lower crust magmatic evolution and recycling

In the Northern Andes of Ecuador, a broad Quaternary volcanic arc with significant across-arc geochemical changes sits upon continental crust consisting of accreted oceanic and continental terranes. Quaternary volcanic centers occur, from west to east, along the Western Cordillera (frontal arc), in the Inter-Andean Depression and along the Eastern Cordillera (main arc), and in the Sub-Andean Zone (back-arc). The adakite-like signatures of the frontal and main arc volcanoes have been interpreted either as the result of slab melting plus subsequent slab melt–mantle interactions or of lower crustal melting, fractional crystallization, and assimilation processes. In this paper, we present petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic (Sr, Nd, Pb) data on dominantly andesitic to dacitic volcanic rocks as well as crustal xenolith and cumulate samples from five volcanic centers (Pululagua, Pichincha, Ilalo, Chacana, Sumaco) forming a NW–SE transect at about 0° latitude and encompassing the frontal (Pululagua, Pichincha), main (Ilalo, Chacana), and back-arc (Sumaco) chains. All rocks display typical subduction-related geochemical signatures, such as Nb and Ta negative anomalies and LILE enrichment. They show a relative depletion of fluid-mobile elements and a general increase in incompatible elements from the front to the back-arc suggesting derivation from progressively lower degrees of partial melting of the mantle wedge induced by decreasing amounts of fluids released from the slab. We observe widespread petrographic evidence of interaction of primary melts with mafic xenoliths as well as with clinopyroxene- and/or amphibole-bearing cumulates and of magma mixing at all frontal and main arc volcanic centers. Within each volcanic center, rocks display correlations between evolution indices and radiogenic isotopes, although absolute variations of radiogenic isotopes are small and their values are overall rather primitive (e.g., ε_Nd = +1.5 to +6, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7040–0.70435). Rare earth element patterns are characterized by variably fractionated light to heavy REE (La/Yb_N = 5.7–34) and by the absence of Eu negative anomalies suggesting evolution of these rocks with limited plagioclase fractionation. We interpret the petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic data as indicating open-system evolution at all volcanic centers characterized by fractional crystallization and magma mixing processes at different lower- to mid-crustal levels as well as by assimilation of mafic lower crust and/or its partial melts. Thus, we propose that the adakite-like signatures of Ecuadorian rocks (e.g., high Sr/Y and La/Yb values) are primarily the result of lower- to mid-crustal processing of mantle-derived melts, rather than of slab melts and slab melt–mantle interactions. The isotopic signatures of the least evolved adakite-like rocks of the active and recent volcanoes are the same as those of Tertiary ”normal” calc-alkaline magmatic rocks of Ecuador suggesting that the source of the magma did not change through time. What changed was the depth of magmatic evolution, probably as a consequence of increased compression induced by the stronger coupling between the subducting and overriding plates associated with subduction of the aseismic Carnegie Ridge.     

A relative water-depth model for the Normandy Chalk (Cenomanian–Middle Coniacian,Paris Basin,France) based on facies patterns of metre-scale cycles

A relative water-depth model for the Chalk of the Paris Basin is proposed, based on the lateral variations of the high-frequency metre-scale cycles, which are characteristic features easily identified in the field. The studied outcrops are the Cenomanian–Middle Coniacian cliffs of Normandy. The main result of this study is to highlight the importance of storm activity in the deposition of the Chalk. The relative water-depth model is based on storm-induced shell concentrations observed within the two components of the metre-thick cycles: the depositional interval itself and the top hiatal surface.Six types of shell concentrations are defined, along with seven types of depositional facies making up the depositional units, as well as eight types of hiatal surface. Three cycle associations, differing in their thickness and the amount and type of non-carbonate constituents, can be identified in the Lower to Upper Cenomanian, the Upper Cenomanian to Lower Turonian and the Middle Turonian to Middle Coniacian.A relative water-depth profile model for all these cycles is based on the shell concentrations and a “water-depth equivalence” is proposed between the three cycle associations (lateral “facies” substitution diagram). This model is tested using palaeocological data (irregular echinoids) and by correlating field sections in terms of stacking patterns. Most of the studied deposits accumulated above the storm wave base (upper offshore zone or mid ramp).