Uncertainty in hydrologic modelling for estimating hydrologic response due to climate change (Santiam River,Oregon)

This paper explores the predicted hydrologic responses associated with the compounded error of cascading global circulation model (GCM) uncertainty through hydrologic model uncertainty due to climate change. A coupled groundwater and surface water flow model (GSFLOW) was used within the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) uncertainty approach and combined with eight GCMs to investigate uncertainties in hydrologic predictions for three subbasins of varying hydrogeology within the Santiam River basin in Oregon, USA. Predictions of future hydrology in the Santiam River include increases in runoff in the fall and winter months and decreases in runoff for the spring and summer months. One‐year peak flows were predicted to increase whereas 100‐year peak flows were predicted to slightly decrease. The predicted 10‐year 7‐day low flow decreased in two subbasins with little groundwater influences but increased in another subbasin with substantial groundwater influences. Uncertainty in GCMs represented the majority of uncertainty in the analysis, accounting for an average deviation from the median of 66%. The uncertainty associated with use of GSFLOW produced only an 8% increase in the overall uncertainty of predicted responses compared to GCM uncertainty. This analysis demonstrates the value and limitations of cascading uncertainty from GCM use through uncertainty in the hydrologic model, offers insight into the interpretation and use of uncertainty estimates in water resources analysis, and illustrates the need for a fully nonstationary approach with respect to calibrating hydrologic models and transferring parameters across basins and time for climate change analyses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detailed <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of geologic events associated with the Mantos Blancos copper deposit,northern Chile

The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological method was applied to date magmatic and hydrothermal alteration events in the Mantos Blancos mining district in the Coastal Cordillera of northern Chile, allowing the distinction of two separate mineralization events. The Late Jurassic Mantos Blancos orebody, hosted in Jurassic volcanic rocks, is a magmatic-hydrothermal breccia-style Cu deposit. Two superimposed mineralization events have been recently proposed. The first event is accompanied by a phyllic hydrothermal alteration affecting a rhyolitic dome. The second mineralization event is related to the intrusion of bimodal stocks and sills inside the deposit. Because of the superposition of several magmatic and hydrothermal events, the obtained ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data are complex; however, with a careful interpretation of the age spectra, it is possible to detect complex histories of successive emplacement, alteration, mineralization, and thermal resetting. The extrusion of Jurassic basic to intermediate volcanic rocks of the La Negra Formation is dated at 156.3 ± 1.4 Ma (2σ) using plagioclase from an andesitic lava flow. The first mineralization event and associated phyllic alteration affecting the rhyolitic dome occurred around 155–156 Ma. A younger bimodal intrusive event, supposed to be equivalent to the bimodal stock and sill system inside the deposit, is probably responsible for the second mineralization event dated at ca. 142 Ma. Other low-temperature alteration events have been dated on sericitized plagioclase at ca. 145–146, 125, and 101 Ma. This is the first time that two distinct mineralization events have been documented from radiometric data for a copper deposit in the metallogenic belt of the Coastal Cordillera of northern Chile. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Variability of extreme precipitation in coastal river basins of the southern mexican Pacific region

Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde.     

SVM后验概率结合改进多尺度MRF的遥感影像分割方法

采用SVM方法估计似然概率,克服了混合高斯模型对观测场建模不准确的问题;通过改进的多尺度MRF模型,在标记场建模时充分考虑了各尺度之间和同一尺度内的相关性,进一步准确描述了标记场的统计特性.最后利用改进的建模方法,在序贯最大后验概率估计算法框架下进行影像分割.通过对人工合成影像和实际遥感影像的分割实验结果分析,证明了本文方法能够有效提高分割效果.     

Eurocode 8-compatible synthetic time-series as input to dynamic analysis

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of existing or planned structures often requires the use of accelerograms that match a target design spectrum. Here, our main concern is to generate a set of motions with a good level of fit to the Eurocode 8 design spectra for France. Synthetic time series are generated by means of a non-stationary stochastic method. To calibrate the input parameters in the stochastic approach, we select a reference set of accelerograms for a Eurocode 8 type B site category from the PEER Ground-Motion Database, which are then adjusted to the target spectrum through wavelet addition. Then, we compute nonlinear seismic responses of a soil column, including pore pressure effects, and brittle and ductile structures to the stochastic time-series, the natural accelerograms and time-series generated using stationary stochastic approaches. The results of these calculations reveal considerable variability in response despite the similarities in terms of spectral acceleration.     

On the inclusion of ground-based gravity measurements to the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model: case of the Durzon karst system (Larzac, southern France)

This work examines the relevance of the inclusion of ground-based gravity data in the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model. The analysis is performed for the Durzon karst system (Larzac, France). The first part of the study focuses on the hydrological interpretation of the ground-based gravity measurements. The second part of the study investigates further the information content of the gravity data with respect to water storage dynamics modelling. The gravity-derived information is found unable to either reduce equifinality of the single-objective, discharge-based model calibration process or enhance model performance through assimilation.     

Seasonal Variability of Carbon Dioxide in the Rivers and Lagoons of Ivory Coast (West Africa)

We report partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) and ancillary data in three rivers (Bia, Tanoé, and Comoé) and five lagoons (Tendo, Aby, Ebrié, Potou, and Grand-Lahou) in Ivory Coast (West Africa), during four cruises covering the main climatic seasons. The three rivers were oversaturated in CO₂ with respect to atmospheric equilibrium, and the seasonal variability of pCO₂ was due to dilution during the flooding period. Surface waters of the Potou, Ebrié, and Grand-Lahou lagoons were oversaturated in CO₂ during all seasons. These lagoons behaved similarly to the oligohaline regions of macrotidal estuaries that are CO₂ sources to the atmosphere due to net ecosystem heterotrophy and inputs of riverine CO₂ rich waters. The Aby and Tendo lagoons were undersaturated in CO₂ with respect to the atmosphere because of their permanent haline stratification (unlike the other lagoons) that seemed to lead to higher phytoplankton production and export of organic carbon below the pycnocline.     

Contribution of non-pollen palynomorphs to the paleolimnological study of a high-altitude Andean lake (Laguna Verde Alta,Venezuela)

This paper evaluates the potential usefulness of non-pollen palynomorphs or NPPs (microfossils other than pollen and spores present in palynological preparations) contained in lake sediments in the paleolimnological reconstruction of high altitude environments (>4,000 m) from the Venezuelan Andes. A synthetic, quantitative approach is employed, instead of the classical analytical and mostly qualitative approach commonly used so far for NPPs. The main sources of variation are the Pediastrum–Botryococcus alternation and the relationship between these two algae and animal remains such as Acari legs, postabdomina of Cladocera, mandibles of other invertebrates, and an unknown type called LVA-1. Other significant microfossils are remains of Rivularia-type and turbellarian oocytes, including Gyratrix. The sequence initiates around 15,000 calibrated years before present (cal BP) with the deglaciation of the lake catchment, high water levels and still cold climates. A phase of lower lake levels was recorded between about 12,000 and 6,000 cal BP. Temperatures increased by around 9,000 and 7,000 cal BP, and then decreased until 6,000 cal BP. Since that time, both lake levels and temperature increased again and stabilized at about 4,000 cal BP, when they reach modern-like values. These results show a good agreement with previous studies based on pollen, diatom and oxygen isotope analyses, and provide additional paleoecological information, as for example the possibility of a previously unrecorded Younger Dryas signal. The inclusion of quantitative NPP analysis in routine paleolimnological studies using synthetic methods is thus recommended. Possible future improvements are suggested, mainly those related with the development and use of NPP modern analogs.     

An open source GIS‐based Planning Support System: Application to the land use plan of La Troncal,Ecuador

Planning Support Systems (PSS) comprise a wide variety of geo‐technological tools related to GIS and spatial modeling aimed at addressing land planning processes. This article describes the OpenRules system, a PSS based on a previous system called RULES. Among OpenRules new features are its architecture, based exclusively on free and open source software, and its applicability to all land use types, including rural and urban uses. In addition, OpenRules incorporates an unlimited number of land evaluation factors and a new objective in land use spatial allocation. OpenRules has been programmed in Java and implemented as a module of the free GIS software gvSIG, with full integration between the GIS and the decision support tools. Decision support tools include multicriteria evaluation, multiobjective linear programming and heuristic techniques, which support three basic stages of land use planning processes, namely land suitability evaluation, land use area optimization and land use spatial allocation. The application of OpenRules to the region of La Troncal, Ecuador, demonstrates its capability to generate alternative and coherent solutions through a scientific and justified procedure at low cost in terms of time and resources.     

Projections of severe droughts in future climate in Southeast Brazil: a case study in Southern Minas Gerais State,Brazil

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - South of Minas Gerais state, in Southeast Brazil, is known for the coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity...