重庆市伏旱时空变化特征

利用1961—2008年重庆34个台站的逐日降水资料,采用主成分分析、旋转主成分分析等方法对重庆伏旱变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：重庆中西部是伏旱高频区,约10年7遇,且多重伏旱。重庆伏旱的第1载荷向量场表明重庆伏旱变化具有很好的整体一致性。重庆伏旱空间异常可分为4个区,即西部区、东北部区、东南部区和中部区。西部伏旱在1960—1970年代最强,东北部伏旱在90年代最强,其次是70年代,中部伏旱在70年代最强,其次是2000年以后,东南部伏旱的年代际变化趋势不明显,且伏旱整体较轻。     

Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.     

Effect of Surface Heterogeneity on the Boundary-Layer Height: A Case Study at a Semi-Arid Forest

We investigate the effects of an isolated meso-\(\gamma \)-scale surface heterogeneity for roughness and albedo on the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, with a case study at a semi-arid forest surrounded by sparse shrubland (forest area: \(28~\text{ km }^2\), forest length in the main wind direction: 7 km). Doppler lidar and ceilometer measurements at this semi-arid forest show an increase in the ABL height over the forest compared with the shrubland on four out of eight days. The differences in the ABL height between shrubland and forest are explained for all days with a model that assumes a linear growth of the internal boundary layer of the forest through the convective ABL upwind of the forest followed by a square-root growth into the stable free atmosphere. For the environmental conditions that existed during our measurements, the increase in ABL height due to large sensible heat fluxes from the forest (\(600~\text {W~m}^{-2}\) in summer) is subdued by stable stratification in the free atmosphere above the ABL, or reduced by high wind speeds in the mixed layer.     

中等传输距离下的无线功率传输链路第1部分:实现工作状态最优化

中程无线功率传输（WPT）可以采用几种不同的方式实现,如通过电感或电容耦合、谐振或非谐振网络实现.本文主要研究了通过感应耦合谐振器实现的WPT链路,而且只着重研究了利用2个谐振器的链路（直接链路）并工作在主谐振频率下的情况.研究结果表明,当工作在主谐振频率下,可以根据网络参数来对传输效率或负载功率进行优化.     

基于GIS和RS的西藏森林火险等级计算方法

基于遥感技术(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS),利用由基于DEM演算的地面最高温度、最小相对湿度和最大风速等格点化气象要素,FY2静止气象卫星逐日降水反演产品和AVHRR积雪监测产品计算网格森林火险天气等级,结合由植被类型、NDVI、地形要素和公路、人口聚居地等要素评估的森林火险风险等级,综合计算得到网格化的西藏森林火险等级。该项业务程序基于MeteoInfo组件建立,能够实现全自动化业务运行。对于森林火灾事件,通过与基于气象站的森林火险天气等级相比,该方法的准确性更高,能为西藏林区森林防火工作提供有效参考。     

月尺度降水可预报性的实验研究

利用信噪方差比探讨了山东省月尺度降水可预报性,发现２～３月、９～１０月不可预报,其它月份可预报性强。一般大气环流系统冬夏转换季节可预报性差。与１３个代表站预报评分进行了比较,发现可预报性指数越高,则实际预报评分也相对较高,两者有较好的对应关系。     

Multispectral remote sensing of biomass burning in West Africa

Remote sensing measurements provide a vauable means of determining the extent of burning areas and of estimating the overall distribution of pollutant sources (identified from experimental studies) in time and space. This distribution has to be taken into account in the boundary conditions of chemistry atmospheric models.Recent methods developed for the remote sensing of active fires in tropical or temperated forest zones, have been found to be completely inadequate for fire detection on West African savannas. In order to accurately estimate the active fire distribution in the function of different sorts of West African savannas (Sahelian, Sudanian and Guinean) and forests, a multispectral methodology has been developed based on NOAA/11-AVHRR satellite data, with the purpose of eliminating as much as possible the problems related to large surface heterogeneity, confusion and bias, produced by clouds, smoke, haze, background emissivities, etc.Unlike other methods, the results show that the multispectral method, in spite of its selectivity, provides realistic results, and does not under- or over-estimate the number of fires that can be sensed by the satellite. Consequently, this methodology is more appropriate than the simplest ones for a systematic sensing of this phenomenon.     

重庆地区夏季降水时空分布特征分析

采用车贝雪夫正交多项式分解方法展开重庆地区夏季降水场, 揭示了最近40年来重庆地区夏季降水时空分布特征.研究结果表明:大部分年份重庆各地夏季降水变化趋势一致; 近40年来重庆地区夏季降水80年代中期以前有增加趋势,而80年代后期至今则有减少趋势, 洪涝灾害主要集中发生在80年代,70年代干旱姓频繁,从80年代末期开始至今,重庆地区又进入了一个干旱的相对高发期.     

春季一次特殊的暴雨天气过程分析

对2000年春季一次高空槽快速移动影响的暴雨天气过程发生的特殊性进行分析,寻找这次暴雨过程发生的前期特征.     

Features of the Extremely Severe Drought in the East of Southwest China and Anomalies of Atmospheric Circulation in Summer 2006

The spatial-temporal features of the extremely severe drought and the anomalous atmospheric circulation in summer 2006 are analyzed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the characteristic circulation indices given by the National Climate Center of China, and the daily precipitation data of 20 stations in the east of Southwest China (ESC) from 1959 to 2006. The results show that the rainless period started from early June and ended in early September 2006 with a total of more than 80 days, and the rainfall was especially scarce from around 25 July to 5 September 2006. Precipitation for each month was less than normal, and analysis of the precipitation indices shows that the summer precipitation in 2006 was the least since 1959. The extremely severe drought in the ESC in summer 2006 was closely related to the persistent anomalies of the atmospheric circulation in the same period, i.e., anomalies of mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), westerlies, South Asian high, lower-level flow, water vapor transport, vertical motion, and so on. Droughts usually occur when the WPSH lies anomalously northward and westward, or anomalously weak and eastward. The extreme drought in summer 2006 was caused by the former. When the WPSH turned stronger and shifted to the north and west of its normal position, and the South Asian high was also strong and lay eastward, downdrafts prevailed over the ESC and suppressed the water vapor transfer toward this area. At the same time, the disposition of the westerlies and the mid-high latitude circulation disfavored the southward invasion of cold air, which jointly resulted in the extremely severe drought in the ESC in summer 2006. The weak heating over the Tibetan Plateau and vigorous convective activities over the Philippine area were likely responsible for the strong WPSH and its northwestward shift in summer 2006.