Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter

Public attitudes about climate change reveal a contradiction. Surveys show most Americans believe climate change poses serious risks but also that reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficient to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations can be deferred until there is greater evidence that climate change is harmful. US policymakers likewise argue it is prudent to wait and see whether climate change will cause substantial economic harm before undertaking policies to reduce emissions. Such wait-and-see policies erroneously presume climate change can be reversed quickly should harm become evident, underestimating substantial delays in the climate’s response to anthropogenic forcing. We report experiments with highly educated adults – graduate students at MIT – showing widespread misunderstanding of the fundamental stock and flow relationships, including mass balance principles, that lead to long response delays. GHG emissions are now about twice the rate of GHG removal from the atmosphere. GHG concentrations will therefore continue to rise even if emissions fall, stabilizing only when emissions equal removal. In contrast, most subjects believe atmospheric GHG concentrations can be stabilized while emissions into the atmosphere continuously exceed the removal of GHGs from it. These beliefs – analogous to arguing a bathtub filled faster than it drains will never overflow – support wait-and-see policies but violate conservation of matter. Low public support for mitigation policies may arise from misconceptions of climate dynamics rather than high discount rates or uncertainty about the impact of climate change. Implications for education and communication between scientists and nonscientists (the public and policymakers) are discussed.     

Generation and differentiation of group II kimberlites: constraints from a high-pressure experimental study to 10 GPa

Experiments have been performed in the multicomponent (natural) bulk system to constrain the conditions of generation and differentiation of a K-rich group II kimberlite (now also referred to as orangeite). The group II composition examined was saturated in olivine, orthopyroxene, and garnet at near liquidus conditions in the pressure range 4 to 10 GPa. In the range 2 to 3 GPa, the liquidus phase was olivine only. The potassic nature of the melts in the bulk compositions studied was ensured by the absence of any K-bearing phase in the residual assemblage at P > 4 GPa. Phlogopite is destabilized toward higher pressures by a carbonation reaction of the type phlogopite + CO₂ = enstatite + garnet + K₂CO₃ (liquid) + H₂O leading to alkalic, carbonatitic liquids coexisting with a garnet-peridotite (harzburgite or lherzolite) residue over a wide pressure-temperature space at pressures in excess of 4 GPa. Evidently, CO₂-bearing systems do not favor the stability of phlogopite and/or K-richterite amphibole at pressures in excess of 4 to 5 GPa, and it is suggested that the carbonate-bearing and potassic character of any mantle melt originating from this depth is most likely the product of a two-stage process: either a carbonate-bearing protolith is invaded by a potassic melt or fluid (probably supercritical), or a potassic protolith (after metasomatism) has been invaded by a carbonatite melt.     

Evolution of the sverdrup basin, arctic canada

Sverdrup Basin underwent three periods of sudden and pronounced increases in rates of subsidence, beginning about 330, 225 and 124 m.y. ago. Subsidence curves indicate that initial high rates of subsidence (up to 11 cm/1000 year) decreased steadily for up to 100 m.y. until interrupted by the next sudden return to rapid subsidence. When the center of the basin was rapidly subsiding, areas adjacent to the basin were midly uplifting. The uplifted region expanded inward over a period 10–30 m.y. to include basin marginal zones thereby tending to shrink the area of active subsidence. Most of the observed record of basin subsidence (at least 70%) probably resulted from lithospheric response to loading of an initial depression. For most of basin history, deduced subsidence and peripheral uplift relations, together with the pattern of exponential decay constants determined from subsidence curves, are consistent with the loading response of a lithosphere modelled as a viscoelastic beam.     

Transport of molybdenum in mountainous streams,Colorado

Waters and sediments in some streams in Colorado contain elevated concentrations of Mo derived from mining areas upstream. In the streams studied, most of the Mo was transported in dissolved form. The suspended load carried a significant amount of Mo (up to 19%) only near the molybdenum mill at Climax.     

Complexity, land-use modeling, and the human dimension: Fundamental challenges for mapping unknown outcome spaces

Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and their biophysical environment. Mismatches between the scale of human drivers and the impacts of human decisions potentially threaten the ecological sustainability of these systems. This article reviews sources of complexity in land-use systems, moving from the human decision level to human interactions to effects over space, time and scale. Selected challenges in modeling such systems and potential resolutions are discussed, including strategies to empiricize complex models and methods for linking models across human and natural systems. Illustrative examples from published literature and an ongoing research project focused on timber harvest and carbon sequestration are used throughout the paper. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of remaining challenges to modeling indirect and cross-scale linkages and of the potential utility of complex models of land systems.     

Phase relations of a natural MARID composition and implications for MARID genesis,lithospheric melting and mantle metasomatism

Melting experiments were performed on a natural mica-amphibole-rutile-ilmenite-clinopyroxene (MARID) sample from the Kaapvaal mantle lithosphere (AJE137) at 20 to 35 kbar and 800 to 1450°C. A solidus was determined at 1260°C and 30 kbar above which phlogopite, clinopyroxene and olivine were stable with an alkali-rich silicate melt. Olivine is the only crystallizing phase just below the liquidus of the AJE137 bulk composition and K-richterite was only stable in the subsolidus region ( 1100°C at 30 kbar). These results are consistent with previous studies in more simple systems. In experiments with 10 wt% added water the solidus was depressed by ca. 300°C and K-richterite was stabilized above this solidus. MARIDs represent a potential lowtemperature component in the lithospheric mantle beneath the Kaapvaal Craton of southern Africa. The addition of > 10 wt% water (with less than a 120°C rise of temperature above the geotherm) to this mantle region would create conditions for the melting of this component. This may then be incorporated in any continental flood basalt parent magma that traverse this lithospheric mantle. The derivation of MARIDs from a silicate melt of their bulk composition, even if water saturated, is considered unlikely as such small degree melts could not sustain the elevated liquidus temperatures required (> 1200°C at 30 kbar) in a cold (< 800°C at 30 kbar) mantle lithosphere. MARID xenoliths may be produced by the interaction of an alkali-rich fluid with a peridotite or as the residue to a group II kimberlitic parent magma that has undergone fractionation of olivine and the exsolution of a carbonatite component.     

DIAS—a novel technique for measuring in situ shear modulus

DIAS (duomorph in situ acquisition system) is an alternate technology requiring a single duomorph probe for measuring shear modulus in situ. The duomorph probe is a bending plate device that is vibrated and the resulting deflections measured using strain gauges. The ratio between the unconstrained bending of the duomorph in air and the constrained bending in sediment is a function of the sediment dynamic modulus from which shear modulus is calculated. This paper describes the theory underlying the DIAS system, the design of the system, the data reduction methods, and results from the initial deployment of the prototype system in Eckernförde Bay.     

Bulk sediment properties interpreted in light of qualitative and quantitative microfabric analysis

Sediments from Eckernförde Bay, Germany, are characterized by an aggregate and channel microstructure, with channel dimensions about two orders of magnitude larger than interparticle distances within aggregates. Porosity within aggregates as determined by image analysis of transmission electron micrographs was about 12% less than bulk porosity. Illite and smectite formed the bulk of most aggregates, while numerous biogenic particles generally occurred outside or on the periphery of aggregates. Microfabric analysis provides insights into permeability and consolidometer behavior of this sediment, reveals characteristics not apparent from bulk analyses, and may have implications for geochemistry and physical behavior of the sediment.