PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME-AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES —A NATURALLY OCCURRING ANALOGUE STUDY

Naturally occurring analogues between the monthly averaged data of 1000,500 and 100 hPa geopotential height and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans during the period January 1956-December 1972 are used to study the potential predictability levels of forecasting the monthly mean ocean/atmosphere variables.It is found that in the ocean-atmosphere system the forecast of geopotential height may be more difficult than SST,and that the predictability level of monthly mean geopotential height anomaly calculated from the corresponding monthly mean SST appears relatively poor,but it can be improved by using the past observational data of monthly mean SST/geopotential fields.     

Using Traditional Methods and Indigenous Technologies for Coping With Climate Variability

In agrometeorology and management of meteorology related natural resources, many traditional methods and indigenous technologies are still in use or being revived for managing low external inputs sustainable agriculture (LEISA) under conditions of climate variability. This paper starts with the introduction of an “end-to-end” climate information build up and transfer system in agrometeorology, in which the use of such methods and technologies must be seen to operate. It then reviews the options that LEISA farmers have in risk management of agrometeorological and agroclimatological calamities. This is based on the role that the pertinent meteorological/climatological parameters and phenomena play as limiting factors in agricultural production and the expectations on their variability. Subsequently, local case studies are given as examples of preparedness strategies to cope with i). variable water/moisture flows, including mechanical impacts of rain and/or hail, ii). variable temperature and heat flows, including fires, and iii). fitting cropping periods to the varying seasons, everywhere including related phenomena as appropriate. The paper ends with a series of important additional considerations without which the indicated strategies cannot be successful on a larger scale and in the long run.     

红辉沸石合成P型沸石试验研究

以广西资源红辉沸石为原料进行合成P型沸石的最佳工艺流程及相关技术参数研究，提出了工艺流程为红辉沸石（酸处理）→水热反应→晶化→洗涤、过滤→烘干→P型沸石产品，最佳工艺技术参数为硅铝摩尔比[n(SiO2)/n(Al2O3)]3-4，碱度4－5mol/L NaOH，晶化温度95－100℃，晶化时间6－8h。     

CryoSat-2卫星海冰区域波形识别及海冰干舷高确定

利用40%阈值法对CryoSat-2卫星波形数据进行重跟踪,将波形特征参数和海冰浓度相结合,对海冰和Lead(浮冰之间的开阔水域)进行有效识别。利用沿轨前后搜索算法计算海冰干舷高,并引用AWI结果,绘制2011~2013年北冰洋多年冰区域和一年冰区域平均海冰干舷高变化趋势图。比较本文结果与AWI结果的各年同期数据,验证本文结果的可靠性。     

基于TileStache的多源投影矢量数据瓦片生成技术研究

瓦片技术的出现改变了传统Web GIS的服务架构,提高了地图数据请求响应的效率。针对多种地图投影类型或地理坐标的矢量数据在瓦片划分过程中遇到的问题,本文基于OGR地理数据模型,设计了多投影数据转换Python模块,扩展至开源应用程序Tile Stache,得到适用于多源投影矢量地理数据的瓦片生成工具OTile Tool;从而实现矢量地理数据瓦片的快速生成,为网络地理信息系统提供了表达地理信息的Geo JSON格式瓦片数据。     

三山岛北部海域金矿勘查工作思路与实践

三山岛北部海域金矿床位于胶东西北部三山岛成矿带之中,为一严格受断裂构造控矿的超大型破碎带蚀变岩型金矿床。矿体全部赋存于滨海海域,具有规模大、延伸稳定、有用物质分布较均匀的特点。作为国家级首批整装勘查区的一部分,尤其是首次在浅海海域进行深部勘查,该区勘查工作受到了多方重视、关注和支持,在1年的时间里完成了主要靶区的详查工作。它首开我国浅海海域金矿勘查的先河,是在综合分析研究矿田成矿背景与找矿潜力的基础上开展的一次系统的、由预查开始直接完成详查的勘查活动,具有周期短、规模大、成果丰、效果好的特点,对我国以后海域固体矿产勘查工作具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于C4.5决策树算法的道路结冰预报模型构建及应用

道路结冰是气象上规定的主要灾害性天气之一,准确认识道路结冰发生规律并科学有效地预报是防灾减灾的关键问题。以影响道路结冰的日积雪深度、日最低气温、日降水量等气象要素为主要因子,将是否结冰抽象成二元分类问题,借助数据挖掘中C4.5决策树算法进行分类分析,得到便于预报员使用的预报道路结冰规则集。在实验部分,选取2004—2013年连云港和嘉定为例,用前8 a的连云港(嘉定)地区道路结冰数据样本进行分类规则的学习,从而得到适合连云港(嘉定)地区的4(3)条预报道路结冰规则集,然后用剩下2 a的数据进行检验,准确率高达96.82%(94.87%)。实验表明采用C4.5决策树算法构建的道路结冰预报模型不仅预报准确率高、易解释、方便预报员直接使用,而且预报规则与道路结冰现象的天气过程及理论一致。     

Controlling Factors,Accumulation Model and Target Zone Prediction of the Coal‐bed Methane in the Huanghebei Coalfield,North China

The Huanghebei Coalfield, one of the coal production bases in North China, was considered as a coalfield without coal‐bed methane (CBM) during past decades. In recent years, however, CBM has been discovered in coal‐bearing successions. In order to understand the CBM geological characteristics and accumulation process in this area, fifteen coal samples were collected and analyzed with respect to coal maceral and reflectance. The result shows that the gas distribution is uneven and the content varies in different areas even for the same coal bed. The storage of CBM is affected by geological factors such as burial depth, geological structures, and magmatic intrusion, among which the former two are more important in the formation of CBM. Deep burial of coal beds with the presence of cap‐rock mudstone can seal CBM. The CBM is also accumulated and preserved at the place where normal faults are distributed. Magmatic intrusion causes contact metamorphism and controls the CBM formation by heating the coal‐bearing successions. The obtained data indicate the geological conditions in northeastern Zhaoguan Mine are preferable for CBM formation and conservation; recent exploration estimates the CBM geological reserves up to 282.16 Mm³ and average of reserve abundance at 0.1662 × 10⁸ m³ km^?2. The Changqing Mine is a potential prospect in terms of CBM exploration since its geological conditions (structures and burial depth) are similar to the Zhaoguan Mine and its cap rock is even better.     

山西新阳矿太原组下组煤层底板岩溶水突水安全性评价

新阳矿9-10-11号煤层底板低于奥灰岩溶水位,承受水压较高,存在带压开采问题。依据矿区水文地质勘查资料,通过对9-10-11号煤层底板隔水岩层隔水性能、奥灰岩溶水富水程度、底板断裂构造发育情况、煤层底板承压大小以及采煤扰动底板破坏深度等突水因素分析,表明井田西南部断裂构造发育地段为突水危险区。分别采用突水系数法和突水危险度法对全井田9-10-11号煤层底板突水危险性进行评价,评价结果显示井田南部及断裂构造发育地段为突水危险区。理论分析与定量评价结果基本一致。针对9-10-11号煤层底板突水安全评价结果,提出了相应的防突水对策。     

广州市美丽乡村空间分异特征及其影响因素

以广州市已公布的4批美丽乡村建设试点数据为基础，通过最邻近指数、基于Riple’s函数的多距离空间聚类分析、核密度分析和叠置分析等方法，探讨了广州市美丽乡村的发展现状、空间分布格局及其影响因素。结果表明：1）自2013年起，广州市美丽乡村数量逐年递增且增长率呈现上升趋势；2）广州市美丽乡村空间分布呈明显的集聚型分布；3）Ripley’s函数分析表明美丽乡村要素点空间分布格局随距离变化略有不同，在0.14 km处集聚强度达到最大；4）核密度分析显示美丽乡村高密度区域主要分布在广州南部和西北部，包括番禺－南沙1个热点主核心区和从化、花都－白云2个热点副核心区，密度分布呈现多核心不均衡特点；5）乡村的地形水文、人文历史、交通区位和政策规划为美丽乡村空间分布的主要影响因素，其中，政策规划因素对“美丽乡村群”空间格局的形成起决定性影响。空间分布特征总体反映出广州市美丽乡村规划建设初见成效，并逐步形成以热点核心区为基础的“美丽乡村群”。最后，在乡村选点、空间优化、价值提升以及乡村治理等方面提出若干建议。