Uncertainties in real‐time flood forecasting with neural networks

Although artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied in rainfall runoff modelling for many years, there are still many important issues unsolved that have prevented this powerful non‐linear tool from wide applications in operational flood forecasting activities. This paper describes three ANN configurations and it is found that a dedicated ANN for each lead‐time step has the best performance and a multiple output form has the worst result. The most popular form with multiple inputs and single output has the average performance. In comparison with a linear transfer function (TF) model, it is found that ANN models are uncompetitive against the TF model in short‐range predictions and should not be used in operational flood forecasting owing to their complicated calibration process. For longer range predictions, ANN models have an improved chance to perform better than the TF model; however, this is highly dependent on the training data arrangement and there are undesirable uncertainties involved, as demonstrated by bootstrap analysis in the study. To tackle the uncertainty issue, two novel approaches are proposed: distance analysis and response analysis. Instead of discarding the training data after the model's calibration, the data should be retained as an integral part of the model during its prediction stage and the uncertainty for each prediction could be judged in real time by measuring the distances against the training data. The response analysis is based on an extension of the traditional unit hydrograph concept and has a very useful potential to reveal the hydrological characteristics of ANN models, hence improving user confidence in using them in real time. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An improved bias correction scheme based on comparative precipitation characteristics

Bias correction is a necessary post‐processing procedure in order to use regional climate model (RCM) simulated local climate variables as the input data for hydrological models owing to systematic errors of RCMs. Most of present bias correction methods adjust statistical properties between observed and simulated data on the basis of calendar periods, e.g. month or season. However, this matching statistic is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition, as temporal distribution of the precipitation between observed and simulated data is ignored. This study suggests an improved bias correction scheme that considers not only statistical properties but also the temporal distribution between the time series of observed and modelled data. The ratio of the observed precipitation to simulated precipitation is used to compare the behaviour between the observed and modelled precipitation data, and three criteria are proposed when dividing bias correction periods: (1) underestimation of precipitation, (2) stability of /underestimation of precipitation, (2) stability of precipitation ratio and (3) oscillation of precipitation ratio. The results show that the output of the proposed bias correction method follows the trend of the observed precipitation better than that of the conventional bias correction method. This study indicates that temporal distribution should not be ignored when choosing a comparison period for bias correction. However, the study is only a preliminary attempt to address this important issue, and we hope it will stimulate more research activities to improve the methodology. Future efforts on several unsolved problems have been suggested such as how to find out the optimal group number to avoid the overfitting and underfitting conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于探空数据的新疆大气扩散条件时空分布特征分析

利用2010—2019年新疆14个探空气象站资料统计分析了近10 a大气最大混合层高度(下文简称混合层高度)、通风量、边界层平均风速及大气自净能力指数的时空分布特征,探讨了各物理参数与空气质量的关系.结果表明:(1)以上参数的逐月分布均呈倒"V"型,表现为夏半年大、冬半年小,即新疆的大气扩散能力在夏季最强、冬季最弱,其...     

深海浅钻在海洋区域地质调查中的应用

深海浅钻是集机、电、液、光等多学科于一体的复杂系统,能够实现定点获取岩石样品,主要应用于深海底矿产资源勘探和深海底地质调查等方面。＂海洋六号＂船配备的深海浅钻是目前国内先进的光电复合缆供电取样钻机,并首次应用到我国海洋区域地质调查中,成功钻获3个岩石样品和2个沉积物样品,为进一步研究南海矿产资源及深海过程演变等提供了基础资料。     

风玫瑰图和风速直方图的制作

通过office办公软件的现有功能,利用WORD（EXCEL）文档快速制作风玫瑰图;风速直方图,解决手工制作精度不高和安装软件的麻烦,提高效率,满足社会各方面的需求。     

Fluid Inclusions,C–H–O–S Isotope and Geochronology of the Bujinhei Pb–Zn Deposit in the Southern Great Xing'an Range of Northeast China: Implication for Ore Genesis

The Bujinhei Pb–Zn deposit is located in the southern Great Xing'an Range metallogenic belt. It is a representative medium‐ to high‐temperature hydrothermal vein type deposit controlled by fractures, and orebodies hosted in the Permian Shoushangou Formation. The hydrothermal mineralization is classified into three stages: pyrite ± arsenopyrite–quartz (Stage 1), polymetallic sulfide–quartz (Stage 2), and polymetallic sulfide–calcite (Stage 3). Fluid inclusion petrography, laser Raman analyses and microthermometry indicate that the liquid‐rich aqueous inclusions (L) and vapor‐rich CO₂ ± CH₄–H₂O inclusions (C) occur in the Stage 1 and as medium‐ to high‐ temperature and low‐ to medium‐salinity NaCl–H₂O–CO₂–CH₄ hydrothermal fluids. The liquid‐rich (L) and rare vapor‐rich CO₂ ± CH₄–H₂O inclusions (C) occur in the Stage 2 with medium‐temperature and low‐salinity NaCl–H₂O ± CO₂ ± CH₄ hydrothermal fluids. The exclusively liquid‐rich (L) fluid inclusions are observed in the Stage 3, and the hydrothermal fluid belongs to medium‐temperature and low‐salinity NaCl–H₂O hydrothermal fluids. The results of hydrogen and oxygen isotope analyses indicate that ore‐forming fluids were initially derived from the magmatic water and mixed with local meteoric water in the late stage (δ¹⁸O_H2O‐SMOW = 6.0 to 2.2‰, δD_SMOW = ?103 to ?134‰). The carbon isotope compositions (?18.4‰ to ?26.5‰) indicate that the carbon in the fluid was derived from the surrounding strata. The sulfur isotope compositions (5.7 to 15.2‰) indicate that the ore sulfur was also primarily derived from the strata. The ore vein No. 1 occurs in fractures and approximately parallel to the rhyolite porphyry; orebodies have a close spatial and temporal relationship with the rhyolite porphyry. The rhyolite porphyry yielded a crystallization age of 122.9  ± 2.4 Ma, indicating that the Bujinhei deposit may be related to the Early Cretaceous magmatic event. Geochemical analyses reveal that the Bujinhei rhyolite porphyry is high in K₂O and peraluminous, and derived from an acidic liquid as a result of strong interaction with hydrothermal fluid during the late magmatic stage; it is similar to A2‐type granites, and formed in a backarc extensional environment. These results indicate that the Bujinhei Pb–Zn deposit was a vein type system that formed in Early Cretaceous and influenced by the Paleo‐Pacific tectonic system. Bujinhei deposit is a representative hydrothermal vein type deposit on the genetic types, and occurs on the western slope of the southern Great Xing'an Range. The ore‐forming fluids were medium‐ to high‐temperature and low‐to medium‐salinity NaCl–H₂O–CO₂–CH₄ hydrothermal fluids, which became medium‐temperature and low‐salinity NaCl–H₂O hydrothermal fluids in later stages, and came from magmatic water and mixed with meteoric water, whereas the ore‐forming materials were mainly derived from the surrounding strata. The LA–ICP–MS zircon U–Pb dating indicates that the Bujinhei deposit formed at the period of late Early Cretaceous, potentially in a backarc extensional environment influenced by the Paleo‐Pacific tectonic system.     

新疆塔什库尔干县赞坎铁矿外围水系沉积物地球化学特征及找矿方向

通过塔什库尔干县赞坎铁矿外围地区水系沉积物地球化学特征及其元素相关性的研究表明,元素(地球化学)异常(高值区)严格受塔阿西-色克布拉克断裂带,以及泥盆纪地层、热液活动、岩脉等因素联合控制。根据异常特征与成矿地质条件,圈定了4处成矿远景区,即赞格尔铅银钨多金属成矿远景区(Ⅰ_1)、西若钨锡钼铜多金属成矿远景区(Ⅱ_2)、盖家克铬镍铜金多金属成矿远景区(Ⅱ_3)和哈尼沙里地金多金属成矿远景区(Ⅱ_4),为下一步找矿工作指明了方向。     

Exploration of empirical relationship between surface soil temperature and surface soil moisture over two catchments of contrasting climates and land covers

Soil moisture plays a very important role in hydrological processes. It has been found in many studies that the surface soil moisture (SSM) is highly related to the diurnal change of the surface soil temperature (?SST) at the same soil depth. However, some studies contradict this common belief with findings of a much stronger correlation between the SSM and the SST. In order to investigate this further, we have carried out for the first time a comparative assessment of the in-situ measured SST and ΔSST for SSM estimations, over two catchments with contrasting climate types and land uses (i.e. one in the UK and the other in Australia). In both catchments, the time point for the highest relationship between the SST and the SSM is explored. As a result, it is found the SST is more suitable to monitor the variability of the SSM than the ΔSST in both catchments. Moreover the proposed seasonal-based classification method further improves the SSM simulation results in both catchments, with a superior performance observed in the UK catchment (NSE = 0.900 and RMSE = 0.030). In the Australian catchment, a relatively weaker correlation is observed and some potential reasons are explained. The potential applications of the findings for remote sensing soil moisture retrievals are also discussed.     

Numerical Simulation of the Lagging Water Inrush Process from Insidious Fault in Coal Seam Floor

Because of insidious fault’s concealing performance and lagging nature, water inrush from insidious faults in coal seam floor can cause great threads to the mine safety. Based on analyzing the engineering geology conceptual model, this paper simulated the insidious fault lagging water inrush process and showed the lift height of the confined water in the insidious fault fractured zone (LHCWIFFZ) and the formation of water inrush channel. Then the concept of the potential water inrush channel with time effect was put forward. In order to further illustrate the time effect of the lagging water inrush from insidious fault, theoretical analysis was made from two aspects of the time effect of the plastic zone development height in the insidious fault fractured zone (PZDHIFFZ) based on the differential flow deformation theory and the time effect of water inrush channel in the upper part of the insidious fault (WICUPIF) based on the subcritical crack propagation theory. Simulation results showed that the results are basically consistent with mining practice.     

荷兰人工育滩工程Sand Motor的经验与启示

海岸侵蚀已成为砂质海岸重要灾害之一,世界各国都致力于海滩防护。荷兰由于地势低洼,在护滩工程中进行大量尝试,于2011年在代尔夫兰海岸开展创新性人工育滩工程即Sand Motor,单个工程补沙总量达2.15×107 m3。持续监测结果显示,工程建成后的沙滩形态与模拟结果基本吻合,沙量损失速度低于预期。阶段性评价结果表明,Sand Motor通过波浪、海流等向海滩缓慢输沙,稳定海岸沙滩和海岸沙丘,具有防护效果显著、成本较低、使用寿命长、增加海岸利用等优点,值得我国借鉴。