A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century: seasonal means and interannual variability

A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century is described, using a high-resolution state-of-the-art model. A time-slice approach is used, whereby the atmospheric general circulation model, HadAM3P, was integrated for two periods, 1960–1990 and 2070–2100, using the SRES A2 scenario. For the first time an ensemble of such experiments was produced, along with appropriate statistical tests for assessing significance. The focus is on changes to the statistics of seasonal means, and includes analysis of both multi-year means and interannual variance. All four seasons are assessed, and anomalies are mapped for surface air temperature, precipitation and snow mass. Mechanisms are proposed where these are dominated by straightforward local processes. In winter, the largest warming occurs over eastern Europe, up to 7°C, mean snow mass is reduced by at least 80% except over Scandinavia, and precipitation increases over all but the southernmost parts of Europe. In summer, temperatures rise by 6–9°C south of about 50°N, and mean rainfall is substantially reduced over the same area. In spring and autumn, anomalies tend to be weaker, but often display patterns similar to the preceding season, reflecting the inertia of the land surface component of the climate system. Changes in interannual variance are substantial in the solsticial seasons for many regions (note that for precipitation, variance estimates are scaled by the square of the mean). In winter, interannual variability of near-surface air temperature is considerably reduced over much of Europe, and the relative variability of precipitation is reduced north of about 50°N. In summer, the (relative) interannual variance of both variables increases over much of the continent.     

Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS)

Balloon-borne electric field soundings and lightning mapping data have been analyzed for three of the storms that occurred in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study field program in 2000 to determine if the storms had inverted-polarity electrical structures. The polarities of all or some of the vertically stacked charge regions in such storms are opposite to the polarities observed at comparable heights in normal storms. Analyses compared the charge structures inferred from electric field soundings in the storms with charges inferred from three-dimensional lightning mapping data. Charge structures were inferred from electric field profiles by combining the one-dimensional approximation of Gauss's law with additional information from three-dimensional patterns in the electric field vectors. The three different ways of inferring the charge structure in the storms were found to complement each other and to be consistent overall. Charge deposition by lightning possibly occurred and increased the charge complexity of one of the storms.Many of the cloud flashes in each case were inverted-polarity flashes. Two storms produced ground flash activity comprised predominantly of positive ground flashes. One storm, which was an isolated thunderstorm, produced inverted-polarity cloud flashes, but no flashes to ground. The positive and negative thunderstorm charge regions were found at altitudes where, respectively, negative and positive charge would be found in normal-polarity storms. Thus, we conclude that these storms had anomalous and inverted-polarity electrical structures. Collectively, these three cases (along with the limited cases in the refereed literature) provide additional evidence that thunderstorms can have inverted-polarity electrical structures.     

Quality control algorithms for rainfall measurements

One of the basic requirements for a scientific use of rain data from raingauges, ground and space radars is data quality control. Rain data could be used more intensively in many fields of activity (meteorology, hydrology, etc.), if the achievable data quality could be improved. This depends on the available data quality delivered by the measuring devices and the data quality enhancement procedures. To get an overview of the existing algorithms a literature review and literature pool have been produced. The diverse algorithms have been evaluated to meet VOLTAIRE objectives and sorted in different groups. To test the chosen algorithms an algorithm pool has been established, where the software is collected. A large part of this work presented here is implemented in the scope of the EU-project VOLTAIRE (Validation of multisensors precipitation fields and numerical modeling in Mediterranean test sites).     

Efficiency of heavy liquid separation to concentrate magnetic particles

Low-temperature rock magnetic measurements have distinct diagnostic value. However, in most bulk marine sediments the concentration of ferrimagnetic and antiferromagnetic minerals is extremely low, so even sensitive instrumentation often responds to the paramagnetic contribution of the silicate matrix in the residual field of the magnetometer. Analysis of magnetic extracts is usually performed to solve the problems raised by low magnetic concentrations. Additionally magnetic extracts can be used for several other analyses, for example electron microscopy or X-ray diffraction. The magnetic extraction technique is generally sufficient for sediments dominated by magnetite. In this study however, we show that high-coercivity components are rather underrepresented in magnetic extracts of sediments with a more complex magnetic mineralogy. We test heavy liquid separation, using hydrophilic sodium polytungstenate solution Na₆[H₂W₁₂O₄₀], to demonstrate the efficiencies of both concentration techniques. Low-temperature cycling of zero-field-cooled, field-cooled and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization acquired at room temperature was performed on dry bulk sediments, magnetic extracts, and heavy liquid separates of clay-rich pelagic sediments originating from the Equatorial Atlantic. The results of the thermomagnetic measurements clarify that magnetic extraction favours components with high spontaneous magnetization, such as magnetite and titanomagnetite. The heavy liquid separation is unbiased with respect to high- and low-coercive minerals, thus it represents the entire magnetic assemblage.     

Seismic anisotropy beneath Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, revealed by shear wave splitting

Shear wave splitting analyses have been carried out using teleseismic data from broad-band seismograph stations deployed at temporary and permanent locations in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica. In most cases, the observed anisotropy can be related to major tectonic events that formed the present-day Antarctic continent. We rule out an anisotropic contribution from recent asthenospheric flow. At the Russian base Novolazarevskaya near the coast in central DML, waveform inversion suggests a two-layer model where the fast direction of the upper layer is oriented parallel to Archean fabrics in the lithosphere, whereas the anisotropy of the lower layer is interpreted to have been created during the Jurassic Gondwana break-up. Recordings at the South African base Sanae IV, however, show enigmatic results. For narrow backazimuthal segments, splitting parameters show strong variations together with a multitude of isotropic measurements, indicative of complex scattering that cannot be explained by simple one- or two-layer anisotropic models. In the interior of the continent, the data are consistent with single-layer anisotropy, but show significant spatial variations in splitting parameters. A set of temporary stations across the Heimefront shear zone in western DML yield splitting directions that we interpret as frozen anisotropy from Proterozoic assembly of the craton. An abrupt change in fast axis direction appears to mark a suture between the Grunehogna craton, a fragment of the Kalahari–Kaapvaal craton in southern Africa and the Mesoproterozoic Maudheim Province.     

A solution of the elastodynamic equation in an anelastic earth model

A formal solution to the elastodynamic equation in an anelastic earth model is presented. The derivation also incorporates the effects of aspherical structure, rotation, self-gravitation, and pre-stress. It is found that the solution can be expressed as a sum of the normal modes of the earth model along with additional terms accounting for anelastic relaxation processes. However, the derivation does not assume that such an eigenfunction expansion is possible, and so avoids difficulties previously encountered due to the non self-adjointness of the problem.     

Coupling of oceanic and continental crust during Eocene eclogite-facies metamorphism: evidence from the Monte Rosa nappe,western Alps

High precision U–Pb geochronology of rutile from quartz–carbonate–white mica–rutile veins that are hosted within eclogite and schist of the Monte Rosa nappe, western Alps, Italy, indicate that the Monte Rosa nappe was at eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions at 42.6 ± 0.6 Ma. The sample area [Indren glacier, Furgg zone; Dal Piaz (2001) Geology of the Monte Rosa massif: historical review and personal comments. SMPM] consists of eclogite boudins that are exposed inside a south-plunging overturned synform within micaceous schist. Associated with the eclogite and schist are quartz–carbonate–white mica–rutile veins that formed in tension cracks in the eclogite and along the contact between eclogite and surrounding schist. Intrusion of the veins at about 42.6 Ma occurred at eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions (480–570°C, >1.3–1.4 GPa) based on textural relations, oxygen isotope thermometry, and geothermobarometry. The timing of eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Monte Rosa nappe determined in this study is identical to that of the Gran Paradiso nappe [Meffan-Main et al. (2004) J Metamorphic Geol 22:261–281], confirming that these two units have shared the same Alpine metamorphic history. Furthermore, the Gran Paradiso and Monte Rosa nappes underwent eclogite-facies metamorphism within the same time interval as the structurally overlying Zermatt-Saas ophiolite [∼50–40 Ma; e.g., Amato et al. (1999) Earth Planet Sci Lett 171:425–438; Mayer et al. (1999) Eur Union Geosci 10:809 (abstract); Lapen et al. (2003) Earth Planet Sci Lett 215:57–72]. The nearly identical P–T–t histories of the Gran Paradiso, Monte Rosa, and Zermatt-Saas units suggest that these units shared a common Alpine tectonic and metamorphic history. The close spatial and temporal associations between high pressure (HP) ophiolite and continental crust during Alpine orogeny indicates that the HP internal basement nappes in the western Alps may have played a key role in exhumation and preservation of the ophiolitic rocks through buoyancy-driven uplift. Coupling of oceanic and continental crust may therefore be critical in preventing permanent loss of oceanic crust to the mantle.     

People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis

Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes, implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However, over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss. Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology. This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual and policy importance.     

Vertical migration of municipal wastewater in deep injection well systems,South Florida,USA

Deep well injection is widely used in South Florida, USA for wastewater disposal largely because of the presence of an injection zone (“boulder zone” of Floridan Aquifer System) that is capable of accepting very large quantities of fluids, in some wells over 75,000 m³/day. The greatest potential risk to public health associated with deep injection wells in South Florida is vertical migration of wastewater, containing pathogenic microorganisms and pollutants, into brackish-water aquifer zones that are being used for alternative water-supply projects such as aquifer storage and recovery. Upwards migration of municipal wastewater has occurred in a minority of South Florida injection systems. The results of solute-transport modeling using the SEAWAT program indicate that the measured vertical hydraulic conductivities of the rock matrix would allow for only minimal vertical migration. Fracturing at some sites increased the equivalent average vertical hydraulic conductivity of confining zone strata by approximately four orders of magnitude and allowed for vertical migration rates of up 80 m/year. Even where vertical migration was rapid, the documented transit times are likely long enough for the inactivation of pathogenic microorganisms.