Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Undular tidal bore dynamics in the Daly Estuary, Northern Australia

Measurements in the macro-tidal Daly Estuary show that the presence of an undular tidal bore contributed negligibly to the dissipation of tidal energy. No recirculation bubble was observed between a trough and the following wave crest in the lee waves following the undular bore. This differs to stationary undular bores in laboratory experiments at larger Froude numbers where a recirculation bubble exists. Secondary motions and the turbulence generated by the undular bore had no measurable influence on the sediment transport. This situation contrasts with the intense sediment resuspension observed in breaking tidal bores. The tidally averaged sediment budget in the Daly Estuary was controlled by the asymmetry of tidal currents. The undular bore may widen the river by breaking along the banks that it undercuts, leading to bank slippage. A patch of river-wide macro-turbulence of 3-min duration occurred about 20 min after the passage of the bore during accelerating tidal currents.     

Strontium-calcium ratios in Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera

The $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio and other parameters have been measured in fossil planktonic foraminifera from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins in order to evaluate the $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio of seawater during the last 75 million years. Results on well-preserved samples indicate that the ratio has increased to its present value by 10–15% during the Cenozoic, and that minima occurred between 55-45 Ma and 10-5 Ma, when the ratio was 15–25% less than at present. The long-term increase may reflect either decreasing deposition of aragonite with a high $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio in shallow seas, or decreasing seafloor spreading rates and consequently decreasing hydrothermal supply of Ca during the Cenozoic. Other geologic evidence suggests that the Eocene minimum (near 50 Ma) may have resulted from increased aragonite sedimentation, while the Late Miocene minimum (between 10-5 Ma) may have been caused by an increased rate of seawater-basalt exchange when seafloor spreading rates increased on the East Pacific Rise near 10 Ma.     

新疆东天山十里坡自然铜矿化区马头滩组玄武岩锆石LA-ICPMS U-Pb年龄及其意义

新疆北部东天山十里坡地区近年来新发现了与玄武岩有关的自然铜矿化这一新类型。自然铜的赋矿地层-马头滩组中的赋矿玄武岩锆石 LA-ICPMS 年龄为307±4Ma,对应于晚石炭世,显示该套赋矿地层属于上石炭统。从该区自然铜赋矿火山岩所限定的时间看,成矿背景应属于后碰撞环境。东天山十里坡地区自然铜矿化的构造背景、成矿系统和矿化类型与峨眉山玄武岩自然铜矿化和美国基威诺铜矿床均存在差异,自然铜矿化的成因可能也存在差异。     

Comparison of laboratory testing protocols to field observations of the weathering of sulfide-bearing mine tailings

A laboratory weathering study using a humidity cell procedure was conducted on two sulfide-bearing tailing samples from a metallurgical site in Ontario (Canada). The test was accompanied by microbiological studies to enumerate the major groups of sulfur-oxidizing bacteria and determine their potential role at different stages during the oxidation process. To evaluate the utility of this method, results were compared with those of previous laboratory and field studies on the same materials. The mineralogy of the laboratory samples differs only by the addition of a small amount of hydronium-bearing natrojarosite [(Na,H₃O)Fe₃(SO₄)₂(OH)₆] to one sample. The progress of sulfide oxidation and the rates of solute release were determined to evaluate the extent of mineral dissolution. These processes were influenced strongly by the capacity of the material to generate acidity, which was enhanced by the presence of hydronium-bearing natrojarosite. Acid-neutralization processes occurring during the laboratory tests were affected by reaction kinetics, consistent with field observations. In particular, the extent of carbonate-mineral dissolution appears to be different in the laboratory than in the field, where more prolonged rock–water interaction allowed more complete chemical equilibration. As a consequence, the capacity of this test procedure to predict weathering reactions in mine tailings is limited by its inability to reproduce the weathering sequence observed in the field. The results of the microbiological study showed that distinct groups of sulfur-oxidizing bacteria operate at different stages of the oxidative process, as was observed in field studies where tailings oxidation occurred under natural conditions, suggesting that microbiological tests performed for laboratory studies are reflective of field conditions.     

A lithological assessment of the resistivity data acquired during the airborne geophysical survey of Anglesey,North Wales

A recent airborne geophysical survey has provided high resolution estimates of the electrical resistivity of the near-surface and deeper (bedrock) formations found across Anglesey and a portion of the coastal area of North Wales. This single small survey provides new geophysical information on both the complex configuration of the Neoproterozoic and Cambrian bedrock units and the shallow near-surface geology and glacial features.     

The ECOMAN project: A novel approach to defining sustainable ecosystem function

The ECOMAN was initiated in 2001 by the University of Plymouth, UK, Plymouth Marine Laboratory and the Department of the Environment, Fisheries and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to address the need for more pragmatic assessment techniques linking environmental degradation with its causes. The primary aim of the project was to develop an evidence-based approach in which suites of easy-to-use, cost-effective and environmentally valid biological responses (biomarkers) could be used together to assess the health of coastal systems through the general condition of individuals. A range of sub-lethal endpoints, chosen to reflect successive levels of biological organisation (molecular, cellular, physiological), was evaluated in common coastal organisms showing different feeding types (filter feeding, grazing, predation) and habitat requirements (estuary, rocky shore). Initially, the suite of biomarkers was used in laboratory studies to determine the relative sensitivities of key species within different functional groups to common contaminants. These results were then validated in field studies performed in a range of ecosystems exhibiting different degrees/signatures of contamination. Here, an example is provided of a field study in the Humber Estuary, UK, which illustrates how multivariate statistical analysis can be used to identify patterns of response to discriminate between contaminated and clean sites. The use of a holistic, integrated approach of this kind is advocated as a practical means of assessing the impact of chemical contamination on organismal health and of ranking the status of marine ecosystems.     

A Multiscale Assessment of Shallow Groundwater Salinization in Michigan

Managing nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution of groundwater systems is a significant challenge because of the heterogeneous nature of the subsurface, high costs of data collection, and the multitude of scales involved. In this study, we assessed a particularly complex NPS groundwater pollution problem in Michigan, namely, the salinization of shallow aquifer systems due to natural upwelling of deep brines. We applied a system-based approach to characterize, across multiple scales, the integrated groundwater quantity–quality dynamics associated with the brine upwelling process, assimilating a variety of modeling tools and data—including statewide water well datasets scarcely used for larger scientific analysis. Specifically, we combined (1) data-driven modeling of massive amounts of groundwater/geologic information across multiple spatial scales with (2) detailed analysis of groundwater salinity dynamics and process-based flow modeling at local scales. Statewide “hotspots” were delineated and county-level severity rankings were developed based on dissolved chloride (Cl⁻) concentration percentiles. Within local hotspots, the relative impact of upwelling was determined to be controlled by: (1) streams—which act as “natural pumps” that bring deeper (more mineralized) groundwater to the surface; (2) the occurrence of nearly impervious geologic material at the surface—which restricts fresh water dilution of deeper, saline groundwater; and (3) the space–time evolution of water well withdrawals—which induces slow migration of saline groundwater from its natural course. This multiscale, data-intensive approach significantly improved our understanding of the brine upwelling processes in Michigan, and has applicability elsewhere given the growing availability of statewide water well databases.     

Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use,climate or CO2?

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and the thicketization of savannas has occurred worldwide over the past century. These changes in vegetation structure are potentially relevant to climatic change as they may be indicative of historical shifts in climate and as they may influence biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions and alter carbon and nitrogen cycles. Traditional explanations offered to account for the historic displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have centered around changes in climatic, livestock grazing and fire regimes. More recently, it has been suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the industrial revolution has been the driving force. In this paper we evaluate the CO₂ enrichment hypotheses and argue that historic, positive correlations between woody plant expansion and atmospheric CO₂ are not cause and effect.Please direct all correspondence to the senior author.