SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.     

Cation ordering of orthopyroxenes from the Skaergaard Intrusion: implications for the subsolidus cooling rates and permeabilities

 We have determined the quenched cation ordering states of five orthopyroxene crystals collected from the marginal border group and the lower zone a and b of the Skaergaard intrusion, and modeled these data to retrieve their closure temperatures (T _c) of Fe–Mg ordering and cooling rates. According to existing thermal models for the Skaergaard pluton, conductive cooling dominated the high and low temperature regimes, which were separated by an intermediate temperature regime in which the cooling was controlled primarily by convective fluid circulation. The cooling rates retrieved from the quenched cation ordering states of the orthopyroxene crystals strictly apply to temperatures around the closure temperatures of the ordering states, ∼340–400^° C, which fall at the transition from convective to the lower temperature conductive cooling. The cooling rates obtained from the cation ordering states of orthopyroxene vary from ∼1 to 270 K/ka. These results agree well with a thermal model calculated using an assumed average permeability of 10^-12 cm² for the pluton, but not completely with a model calculated on the basis of an average permeability of 10^-13 cm², although both values produced shifts of δ¹⁸O that are comparable to those observed in the pluton. Received: 27 February 1995/Accepted: 20 July 1995     

A 2D finite volume model for bebris flow and its application to events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees

FLATModel is a 2D finite volume code that contains several original approaches to improve debris-flow simulation. Firstly, FLATModel incorporates a ＂stop-and-go＂ technique in each cell to allow continuous collapses and remobilizations of the debris-flow mass. Secondly, flow velocity and consequently yield stress is directly associated with the type of rheology to improve boundary accuracy. Thirdly, a simple approach for entrainment is also included in the model to analyse the effect of basal erosion of debris flows. FLATMODEL was tested at several events that occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees and simulation results indicated that the model can represent rather well the different characteristics observed in the field.     

Rock-weathering rates as functions of time

The scarcity of documented numerical relations between rock weathering and time has led to a common assumption that rates of weathering are linear. This assumption has been strengthened by studies that have calculated long-term average rates. However, little theoretical or empirical evidence exists to support linear rates for most chemical-weathering processes, with the exception of congruent dissolution processes. The few previous studies of rock-weathering rates that contain quantitative documentation of the relation between chemical weathering and time suggest that the rates of most weathering processes decrease with time. Recent studies of weathering rinds on basaltic and andesitic stones in glacial deposits in the western United States also clearly demonstrate that rock-weathering processes slow with time. Some weathering processes appear to conform to exponential functions of time, such as the square-root time function for hydration of volcanic glass, which conforms to the theoretical predictions of diffusion kinetics. However, weathering of mineralogically heterogeneous rocks involves complex physical and chemical processes that generally can be expressed only empirically, commonly by way of logarithmic time functions. Incongruent dissolution and other weathering processes produce residues, which are commonly used as measures of weathering. These residues appear to slow movement of water to unaltered material and impede chemical transport away from it. If weathering residues impede weathering processes then rates of weathering and rates of residue production are inversely proportional to some function of the residue thickness. This results in simple mathematical analogs for weathering that imply nonlinear time functions. The rate of weathering becomes constant only when an equilibrium thickness of the residue is reached. Because weathering residues are relatively stable chemically, and because physical removal of residues below the ground surface is slight, many weathering features require considerable time to reach constant rates of change. For weathering rinds on volcanic stones in the western United States, this time is at least 0.5 my.     

On the eigenvalues of kinematic α-effect dynamos

The kinematic α-effect dynamo problem is investigated in the case of an exterior perfect conductor. It is shown that certain approximate symmetries discovered in the numerical analysis of ROBERTS (1972) are exact for this case. As an illustration, an exact solution is given in a cylindrical geometry, where the equations can be written in terms of one variable. The implications for the earth's dynamo are discussed.