中国汽车工业──改革开放后的重整与国际化

大规模的重整和广泛的国际化是改革开放后中国汽车工业发展的两个主要特征。作者首先从企业组织结构、生产能力与品种结构、规模经济和空间分布等四个方面分析了近二十年来中国汽车工业重整的效果及所形成的行业特征;其次根据利用的外资和技术的来源以及涉及的技术形态分析了其国际化的程度及在世界汽车工业中的位置;最后总结了中国汽车工业面临的若干问题,并提出在散乱的格局和跨国公司竞争的双重压力下,中国汽车工业正处于成长的关键时期。     

SECIS: The Solar Eclipse Coronal Eclipse Imaging System

The Solar Eclipse Coronal Imaging System (SECIS) is an instrument designed to search for short-period modulations in the solar corona seen either during a total eclipse or with a coronagraph. The CCD cameras used in SECIS have the capability of imaging the corona at a rate of up to 70 frames a second, with the intensities in each pixel digitised in 12-bit levels. The data are captured and stored on a modified PC. With suitable optics it is thus possible to search for fast changes or short-period wave motions in the corona that will have important implications for the coronal heating mechanism. The equipment has been successfully tested using the Evans Solar Facility coronagraph at National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak and during the 11 August 1999 eclipse at a site in north-eastern Bulgaria. The instrument is described and preliminary results are outlined.     

The non-linear redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies

We study the power spectrum of galaxies in redshift space, with third-order perturbation theory to include corrections that are absent in linear theory. We assume a local bias for the galaxies: i.e., the galaxy density is sampled from some local function of the underlying mass distribution. We find that the effect of the non-linear bias in real space is to introduce two new features: first, there is a contribution to the power which is constant with wavenumber, whose nature we reveal as essentially a shot-noise term. In principle this contribution can mask the primordial power spectrum, and could limit the accuracy with which the latter might be measured on very large scales. Secondly, the effect of second- and third-order bias is to modify the effective bias (defined as the square root of the ratio of galaxy power spectrum to matter power spectrum). The effective bias is almost scale-independent over a wide range of scales. These general conclusions also hold in redshift space. In addition, we have investigated the distortion of the power spectrum by peculiar velocities, which may be used to constrain the density of the Universe. We look at the quadrupole-to-monopole ratio, and find that higher order terms can mimic linear theory bias, but the bias implied is neither the linear bias, nor the effective bias referred to above. We test the theory with biased N -body simulations, and find excellent agreement in both real and redshift space, providing the local biasing is applied on a scale whose fractional rms density fluctuations are < 0.5.     

Formation and failure of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley associated with eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex, Alaska

The formation of lahars and a debris avalanche during Holocene eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex in south-central Alaska have led to the development of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley. Debris dams composed of lahar and debris-avalanche deposits formed at least five times in the last 8000–10,000 years and most recently during eruptions of Crater Peak vent in 1953 and 1992. Water impounded by a large debris avalanche of early Holocene (?) age may have destabilized an upstream glacier-dammed lake causing a catastrophic flood on the Chakachatna River. A large alluvial fan just downstream of the debris-avalanche deposit is strewn with boulders and blocks and is probably the deposit generated by this flood. Application of a physically based dam-break model yields estimates of peak discharge (Q_p) attained during failure of the debris-avalanche dam in the range 10⁴<Q_p<10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ for plausible breach erosion rates of 10–100 m h⁻¹. Smaller, short-lived, lahar dams that formed during historical eruptions in 1953, and 1992, impounded smaller lakes in the upper Chakachatna River valley and peak flows attained during failure of these volcanic debris dams were in the range 10³<Q_p<10⁴ m³ s⁻¹ for plausible breach erosion rates.Volcanic debris dams have formed at other volcanoes in the Cook Inlet region, Aleutian arc, and Wrangell Mountains but apparently did not fail rapidly or result in large or catastrophic outflows. Steep valley topography and frequent eruptions at volcanoes in this region make for significant hazards associated with the formation and failure of volcanic debris dams.     

TRACKING THE BABY BOOM,THE BABY BUST,AND THE ECHO GENERATIONS: HOW AGE COMPOSITION REGULATES US MIGRATION*

US regional and state migration data from the 1940s–80s, when members of the baby boom generation aged into their years of peak labor force mobility, suggest ways in which changing age composition regulates geographical mobility and interregional migration. Labor supply pressure plays a key role in the dynamics of the national migration system. A “delayed mobility” effect in the 1980s similar to the delayed fertility of the baby boom cohorts appears to be a result of the depressed rates of mobility experienced by members of this generation when they flooded regional labor markets with record numbers of entrants in the 1970s. Recent temporal shifts in age-specific volumes of interregional migration help predict the future pace of migration based upon the projected age distribution of the nation.     

Martian rampart crater ejecta: Experiments and analysis of melt-water interaction

Viking images of Martian craters with rampart-bordered ejecta deposits reveal distinct impact ejecta morphology when compared to that associated with similar-sized craters on the Moon and Mercury. Topographic control of distribution, lobate and terraced margins, cross-cutting relationships, and multiple stratigraphic units are evidence for ejecta emplacement by surface flowage. It is suggested that target water explosively vaporized during impact alters initial ballistic trajectories of ejecta and produces surging flow emplacement. The dispersal of particulates during a series of controlled steam explosions generated by interaction of a thermite melt with water has been experimentally modeled. Preliminary results indicate that the mass ratio of water to melt and confining pressure control the degree of melt fragmentation (ejecta particle size) and the energy and mode of melt-ejecta dispersal. Study of terrestrial, lobate, volcanic ejecta produced by steam-blast explosions reveals that particle size and vapor to clast volume ratio are primary parameters characterizing the emplacement mechanism and deposit morphology. Martian crater ramparts are formed when ejecta surges lose fluidizing vapors and transported particles are deposited en masse. This deposition results from flow yield strength increasing above shear stress due to interparticle friction.     

Theoretical Signature of Solar Meridional Flow in Global Seismic Data

Approximate expressions are derived for the perturbations in solar p- and f-mode oscillation eigenfunctions, due to large-scale, meridional flows which are symmetric about the equator. The essential signature of the perturbed eigenfunctions in global helioseismic data is derived and the prospects for detecting meridional flow using global seismic techniques are discussed.     

Normalization and the detection of integrability: The generalized Van Der Waals potential

Deprit and Miller have conjectured that normalization of integrable Hamiltonians may produce normal forms exhibiting degenerate equilibria to very high order. Several examples in the class of coupled elliptic oscillators are known. In order to test the utility of normalization as a detector of integrability we normalize, to high order, a perturbed Keplerian system known to have several integrable limits; the generalized van der Waals Hamiltonian for a hydrogen atom. While the separable limits give rise to high order degeneracy we find a non-separable, integrable limit for which the normal form does not exhibit degeneracy. We conclude that normalization may, in certain cases, indicate integrability but is not guaranteed to uncover all integrable limits.     

Potential neutrino signals in a northern hemisphere neutrino telescope from galactic gamma-ray sources

Neutrino energy spectra have been calculated based on the recently measured energy spectra of Galactic very high energy γ-ray sources. Based on these neutrino spectra the expected event rates in the ANTARES neutrino telescope and KM3NeT, a future neutrino telescope in the Mediterranean Sea with an instrumented volume of one km³, have been calculated. For the brightest γ-ray sources we find event rates of the order of one neutrino per year. Although the neutrino event rates are comparable to the background from atmospheric neutrinos the detection of individual sources seems possible.